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The race to economic collapse is an international competition sparking threats and tensions summoning the specter of war. The imploding center of this collapse is that of industrial technocracy based on fossil fuels. All the nations will go through it on differing schedules. It has been playing out slowly, painfully, and deceptively — hence, my term for it: the long emergency.

Following a dumbed-down media unable to parse the delusions du jour, one might think, for instance, that the USA and China are engaged in a symbolic battle for the heavyweight championship of the world. Rather, both are freaking out at a prospective decline in activity that will make it impossible to support their current populations at even close to the levels of comfort they had lately achieved.

For China, that means very lately. Up until the turning millennium, most Chinese lived as though the twelfth century had never ended. For but two decades now, a new and quite large Chinese middle class has been driving cars around freeways, eating cheeseburgers, wearing designer blue jeans, shooting selfies at the Eiffel Tower, and even dreaming of trips to the moon. They’ve barely had time to turn decadent.

Getting to that was quite a feat. China compressed its version of the industrial revolution into a few decades, catching up to a weary, jaded West that took two hundred years achieving “modernity,” and now it is seeming to surpass us — which is the reason for so much tension and anxiety in our relations. The real news is: we’re all already in the climax of that movie. Nobody will surpass anyone.

The reason is the decline of affordable energy to run the stupendously complex systems we have come to rely on. China never had very much petroleum. They import over 10 million barrels a day now, and most of that comes from far far away, having to pass through some very hazardous sea lanes like the Straits of Hormuz and Molucca. They run things mostly on coal, and they’re well past peak — and let’s not get into the ecological ramifications of what they’re still burning. Even some intelligent observers in the West think that the Chinese have made gigantic strides in alt-energy, and will soon be free of old limits, but that’s a pipe dream. They have met the same disappointments over wind and solar as we have. Alt-energy just doesn’t pencil out money-wise or physics-wise. Plus, you absolutely need fossil fuels to make it happen, even as a science project.

The US is smugly and stupidly under the impression that the “shale oil miracle” has put an end to our energy worries. That comes from a foolish nexus of wishful thinking between a harried populace, a dishonest government, and the aforementioned brain-damaged news media. We want, with all our might, to believe we can keep running the interstate highways, WalMart, Agri-Business, DisneyWorld, the US Military, and suburbia just as they are, forever. So, we spin our reassuring fantasies about “energy independence” and “Saudi America.” Meanwhile, the shale oil companies can’t make a red cent pulling that stuff out of the ground. For the moment, ultra-low interest rate loans, riding on the back of all that wishful thinking, keep the racket going and sustain America’s illusions.

The disappointment over that error-in-thinking will be epic. In fact, it already is, considering how many working-age people without work or sense of purpose are ending their lives by opioid OD in Flyover country. The hipsters of Brooklyn and Silicon Valley haven’t gotten to that point because so much of America’s diminishing capital productivity still flows into their bank accounts — enabling a sunny life of caramel cloud macchiatos, farm-to-table suppers, and sexual reassignment surgeries.

The US and China are actually more like two passengers of a sinking ship racing to swim to a single lifebuoy — which is drifting ever-beyond the reach of both desperate parties on a powerful current of history. That current is the one telling nations quite literally to mind their own business, to prepare to go their own ways, to strive somehow to become self-sufficient, to finally face the limits to growth, to simplify and downscale all their operations.

Alas, the US and China — and everybody else — will apparently be dragged kicking and screaming to those transformational recognitions. (Thus, the agonies of Brexit.)  In the meantime, we may choose to slug it out in pursuit of that chimerical world championship just because we still have means to go at it. Such a contest would certainly speed up the journey to our fated destination, and not in a good way.


Note: I’ll be giving a talk in Hudson, New York, this Thursday, May 30, 6pm, at the library there:
51 N 5th St, Hudson, NY 12534. (518) 828-1792)


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At Ponsonby Hall, a new Hampshire prep school for screw-ups, things are far from all right.
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Great Winter Reading… JHK’s Hippie Novel!

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Geography of Nowhere The Long Emergency
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About James Howard Kunstler

View all posts by James Howard Kunstler
James Howard Kunstler is the author of many books including (non-fiction) The Geography of Nowhere, The City in Mind: Notes on the Urban Condition, Home from Nowhere, The Long Emergency, and Too Much Magic: Wishful Thinking, Technology and the Fate of the Nation. His novels include World Made By Hand, The Witch of Hebron, Maggie Darling — A Modern Romance, The Halloween Ball, an Embarrassment of Riches, and many others. He has published three novellas with Water Street Press: Manhattan Gothic, A Christmas Orphan, and The Flight of Mehetabel.

911 Responses to “Rumors of War” Subscribe

  1. Pucker May 27, 2019 at 10:04 am #

    What do you think of “Hyper Ethnic Change”?

    “Few debates about national populism fail to mention immigration; this is why it is crucial to explore exactly how this issue and the wider ethnic transformation of the West are creating room for revolts like Brexit, Trump and populists in Europe. Again, we need to step back and take in the broad view. While many Western nations, not least the US, have experienced immigration in recent centuries, more recent flows have often been unprecedented in size, involved different types of migrants, and are more broadly ushering in an era of what we call ‘hyper ethnic change’. This is causing significant fears and resentment among large numbers of voters, which will likely accelerate. However, we reject the popular claim that national populism is simply a refuge for racists and people driven by an irrational fear of ‘the other’. While racists are undoubtedly drawn to national populists, by no means everybody who votes for them is racist. Rather, national populists often raise legitimate questions such as what number of immigrants can be accommodated, what skill set they should have and whether new arrivals should have access to the same benefits as long-standing citizens. Anxieties about the scale and pace of ethnic change are not simply rooted in economics and the availability of jobs. Despite what many on the liberal left claim, and as nearly twenty years of research have shown, what is just as important, if not more so, are people’s fears about how immigration and ethnic change are seen to threaten their national identity. Our overarching argument is that national populism partly reflects deep-rooted public fears about how a new era of immigration and hyper ethnic change could lead to the destruction of their wider group and way of life.“

    Roger Eatwell
    National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy

    • Neon Vincent May 27, 2019 at 11:30 am #

      And a somber Memorial Day to you and the rest of Kunstler’s readers. At this rate, I won’t have to buy the book. You’ll reproduce it here paragraph by paragraph in serial form. I suppose I should thank you.

      That’s rather snide, Neon Vincent. I put a lot of effort and thought into writing these original blogs, and for-the-record, my next book has already gone through all its edits and I’m not running excerpts of it here. –JHK Admin

      • elysianfield May 27, 2019 at 11:44 am #

        Neon,
        Have you seen today’s “Google Doodle” on their homepage? I find it insulting. Google has long failed to honor the USMC on their birthday every year, but does not neglect to celebrate those of various obscure Marxists, or notable events such as Maya Angelou’s first menstrual cycle….

        The gloves are off. I would invite those revanchists at Google to kiss my big black ass….

        • Neon Vincent May 27, 2019 at 11:57 am #

          Yes, I saw today’s Google doodle. I don’t know what’s disrespectful about either an American flag folded into a triangle, which is what I saw this morning, or a gray Google logo followed by a bugle playing “Taps,” which I see now, so I’ll let you explain it. That written, I’ve observed the USMC birthday on my blog twice, albeit combined with Veterans Day. The first time I featured the USMC Drum and Bugle Corps and the second time I featured both the drum corps and United States Marine Band, AKA “The President’s Own.” A friend of mine who marched in the USMC drum corps thanked me for posting those. I hope you enjoy them, too.

          • elysianfield May 27, 2019 at 1:02 pm #

            Neon,
            I saw neither the flag, nor the bugle…just the gray. I changed screens repeatedly, tapping on the logo only mentioned “Memorial Day, 2019”.

      • Neon Vincent May 27, 2019 at 11:46 am #

        That written, it looks like a good explanation of the phenomenon written by a scholar who is not sympathetic to the movement. I could use the analysis. So could the writers for “The Good Fight,” who produced a series of animated musical shorts about the political situation in the U.S. in hopes of getting at least one of them nominated for an Emmy. It worked last year. They’re very funny, but the one mocking Pepe attracted a lot of trolls and downrates. Maybe they could use some help understanding the other side.

        As for the U.S.-China trade dispute we’re in, that’s not helping either U.S. businesses, other than some manufacturers, or U.S. consumers. Speaking of which, another retail chain is going away, as Shopko is liquidating and will be close by the middle of June. The Retail Apocalypse rolls on.

        • Elrond Hubbard May 27, 2019 at 1:11 pm #

          Have you blogged about CBS censoring one of their cartoon shorts, that happened to be about… wait for it… censorship? I’d check but I can’t follow your link from here.

          • Neon Vincent May 27, 2019 at 2:09 pm #

            E.H., I mentioned it in passing, writing “it seemed that every episode this season had an animated musical segment, including the one that was censored.” I didn’t go beyond that, as it wasn’t uploaded to YouTube along with any Good Fight Short after “The Legend of John Barron.” If I want to write about the topic, I’d have to do so indirectly by embedding the Vox video about China’s treatment of the Uighurs and another video about either “The Great Firewall” or Google’s and Facebook’s attempts to enter the Chinese market (Chumhum seems to be an Expy of both tech giants), since the video was never shown to the public, although having it seen as censored may have worked nearly as well.

      • Neon Vincent May 27, 2019 at 2:13 pm #

        Sorry, I JHK, I wasn’t referring to you and I apologize for accidentally offending you. I was referring to Pucker reposting excerpts from Roger Eatwell’s “National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy.” If I was being snide, it wasn’t to you, it was to Pucker. If he wants an apology, I’ll give it to him if he asks.

        • Pucker May 27, 2019 at 3:48 pm #

          Don’t worry about it.

          Some time ago, I quoted from a book that was rather embarrassing to black Americans from a sociological perspective and some bloke kept threatening me with alleged copyright violations, which was a bit weird.

        • gonetohell May 28, 2019 at 3:47 pm #

          So it is revealed that JHK has gotten a tad sensitive, and more than a tad defensive, in his old age.

      • Q. Shtik May 27, 2019 at 2:39 pm #

        JHK,

        Neon V. was talking to Pucker about his endless quotations from National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy by Roger Eatwell. (Interesting last name, no?) He was not being snide to you.

        • K-Dog May 28, 2019 at 12:00 pm #

          Interesting how Pucker anticipated another Golden Golem article and had what could have passed for a thoughtful response per-prepared, shrink-wrapped and ready to go. Interesting how he says ‘Don’t worry about it’ and mentions African Americans in his don’t worry about it response in a totally inappropriate way. Interesting too how nobody calls ‘the bloke’ out. Pucked up to just show up here with your own agenda IMHO. but Puckers agenda is Truptopian. I guess that makes it OK.

      • Majella May 27, 2019 at 6:40 pm #

        JHK – what the actual? This is clearly not aimed at you but at Puker’s constant C&Ping from Mr. Eatwell’s book. I’m a little surprised at the thin-skinned response, especially from a writer of your calibre whom one would expect to have a better level of reading comprehension.

        • gonetohell May 28, 2019 at 1:06 am #

          His next book is said to have been crayoned on a bib while in his assisted living facility.

      • gonetohell May 28, 2019 at 1:00 am #

        By all means buy his next book. In this sequel he’s going to elaborate on how “America’s diminishing capital productivity” is leading to more transgender surgeries. After all, those liberals in Brooklyn and Silicon Valley are always looking for new and interesting ways to spend what’s left of our nation’s wealth. I’m sure he threw Brooklyn in there as some sort of dig on AOC.

        • CancelMyCard May 28, 2019 at 6:48 pm #

          You clearly are an empty-headed,
          flaming asshole . . .

          but then, you already know that.

          • gonetohell May 28, 2019 at 11:00 pm #

            Speaking of assholes, maybe it’s time you finally took that thumb out of yours. You’ll still be a clueless nitwit but you should be able to sit more comfortably.

          • Q. Shtik May 29, 2019 at 1:13 pm #

            flaming asshole . . . – CancelMC

            Speaking of assholes, maybe it’s time you finally took that thumb out of yours. – gonetohell

            ==============

            Oh goody, this is like the good old days when we used to see some nasty ad hominems. Some guy (I think his handle was OEO) would begin a sentence “Hey, Penis breath…”

  2. Pucker May 27, 2019 at 10:06 am #

    I suspect that if one surveyed Asian immigrant populations in the US that you’d find similar disquiet and shock at the “browning” of the US by hyper open border immigration. Go figure….

    “Many leaders and people in Central and Eastern Europe loathe what they see as a cosmopolitan and liberal Europe in the West.”

    Roger Eatwell
    National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy

  3. venuspluto67 May 27, 2019 at 10:16 am #

    And just think, we might have a war with Iran to really put us on that toboggan-slide. Ain’t we got fun!

    • malthuss May 27, 2019 at 10:19 am #

      Ain’t we got fun

      That is an old tune.

      • hmuller May 27, 2019 at 11:49 am #

        “Ain’t We Got Fun” is a popular foxtrot published in 1921 with music by Richard A. Whiting, lyrics by Raymond B. Egan and Gus Kahn.

        It was recorded by such notables as Doris Day, Peggy Lee, Bob Hope, Bing Crosby, and Rosemary Cluny, and a popular cat food commercial of the 1970’s.

        If Biden wins in 2020, the foxtrot could make a big comeback.

        • JimInFlorida May 27, 2019 at 6:42 pm #

          America is incapable of supporting a return of the foxtrot or any other such dance. Our culture is too far gone. Not even the corpse remains; only the sticky silhouette of what used to be. Perhaps a few dusty pictures and memories stored in somebody’s drawer.

          The only “foxtrot” that might show up would be if it’s mixed with twerking and grinding somehow. I don’t even think the current clowns of the entertainment racket even know what 3/4 time is, let alone the circle of fifths.

          • Elrond Hubbard May 28, 2019 at 11:38 am #

            JimInFlorida, I would be cautious about too much nostalgia for a bygone era with too little thought or responsibility. Around the same time the foxtrot was being invented, lynching was at its height in the United States.

            If you want to lament the comely surface of days gone by, you ought to pay attention to the horrors underneath as well. And the horrors weren’t even underneath. Not only were these murder festivals celebrated openly and in public, but it was normal to send picture postcards of lynchings through the mail. What souvenirs those must have made!

          • gonetohell May 28, 2019 at 3:39 pm #

            This isn’t a music blog. So no need to try and impress with your limited knowledge of musical terms. No one here is going to know or care what you mean by circle of fifths or 3/4 time.

        • Anon1970 May 27, 2019 at 9:12 pm #

          In 1956, Doris Day’s hit song song from the movie “The Man Who Knew Too Much” was heavily played on the radio. “Que sera, sera”: Whatever will be will be. It seems more appropriate these days, given the political and economic uncertainty we are living through.

          In 1956, the US was at its peak, in many respects, relative to the rest of the world. It was the year the Interstate Highway Act was passed. President Eisenhower refused to consider tax cuts until the debt related to WWII had been paid off. He kept the US out of the Hungarian Revolution and pressured the British, French and Israelis to give back control of the Suez Canal to Egypt. He was not interested in starting WWIII with Russia.

          63 years later, my standard of living is much higher than it was in 1956, although for many American households, that is not the case. These days, some American college graduates are moving abroad to teach English in China or India or even Ukraine, just to get out from under their massive student loans.

  4. benr May 27, 2019 at 10:28 am #

    The oil fields of Newhall now called Santa Clarita started shutting down in the late 60’s early 70’s as they started drying up and stopped producing.

    Flash forward forty years and lo and behold they are producing again with the same equipment and even stranger the oil seeps have been producing for the last decade or so.

    These were oil wells claimed to have been dried up and died several decades ago.

    Even more strange the oil wells all around Ventura and Ojai are also producing and tar a rare sighting in these parts washing up on the beach is now showing up all over as well.
    A Russian scientist believed Oil is Abiotic and replenishes itself naturally if left alone.

    I have seen something of this first hand and during periods when it’s not simply the water table pushing oil out.

    principia-scientific.org/russians-nasa-discredit-fossil-fuel-theory-demise-of-junk-co2-science/

    The piece has a nod to our host.

    • GreenAlba May 27, 2019 at 11:11 am #

      Well, benr, I don’t think I’ll be paying much attention to anything Principia-Scientific says in future.

      The quote from Richard Heinberg, whom I used to read quite prolifically, intrigued me, so I checkout out his views on abiotic oil,which are there for all to see if you just google, unsurprisingly, ‘Richard Heinberg abiotic oil’. And here they are for your delectation and further clarification:

      richardheinberg.com/richard-heinberg-on-abiotic-oil

      Here’s the Principia-S quote:

      “Indeed, so lame has the fossil fuel theory become that even its most strident supporters are unable to muster the flimsiest of evidence for their position. In “The Abiotic Oil Controversy” key proponent of the abiotic (fossil) origin, Richard Heinberg admits his case is exposed as threadbare lamenting,

      “Perhaps one day there will be general agreement that at least some oil is indeed abiotic. Maybe there are indeed deep methane belts twenty miles below the Earth’s surface.”

      And here’s what Richard Heinberg actually said:

      Perhaps one day there will be general agreement that at least some oil is indeed abiotic. Maybe there are indeed deep methane belts twenty miles below the Earth’s surface. But the important question to keep in mind is: What are the practical consequences of this discussion now for the problem of global oil depletion?

      “I have not personally inspected the oil wells in Saudi Arabia or even those in Texas. But nearly every credible report that I have seen – whether from the industry or from an independent scientist – describes essentially the same reality: discoveries are declining, and have been since the 1960s. Spare production capacity is practically gone. And the old, super-giant oil fields that the world depends upon for the majority of its production are nearing or past their all-time production peaks. Not even the Russian fields cited by the abiotic theorists as evidence for their views are immune: in June the head of Russia’s Federal Energy Agency said that production for 2005 is likely to remain flat or even drop, while other officials in that country have said that growth in Russian production cannot be sustained for more than another few years. (15)”

      “Given the ongoing runup in global petroleum prices, the notion of peak oil hardly needs defending these days. We are seeing the phenomenon unfold before our eyes as one nation after another moves from the column of “oil ” to that of “oil importers” (Great Britain made the leap this year). At some point in the very near future the remaining nations in column A will simply be unable to supply all of the nations in column B.

      “In short, the global energy crisis is coming upon us very quickly, so that more time spent debating highly speculative theories can only distract us from exploring, and applying ourselves to, the practical strategies that might preserve more of nature, culture, and human life under the conditions that are rapidly developing.

      There’s more, but you can read it yourself.

      So you can have Principia-not-remotely-Scientifica and not even honest, and I’ll stick with Richard Heinberg, thanks.

      • GreenAlba May 27, 2019 at 11:12 am #

        *checked out*

        • Tate May 27, 2019 at 11:33 am #

          Deleted by JHK Admin for personal nastiness to another commenter.

          • GreenAlba May 27, 2019 at 12:10 pm #

            Nope. It’s just the probably inevitable consequence of being a language teacher, then working in publishing. My profuse apologies. I somehow thought you’d be more interested in the content, but I guess there’s nothing really to say about that, so well done you.

          • GreenAlba May 27, 2019 at 12:13 pm #

            Did you even notice they referred to Heinberg as a ‘key proponent of the abiotic (fossil) origin’? Or did you just get to ‘checkout’ and skip to the correction?

          • Tate May 27, 2019 at 12:52 pm #

            Well, I was curious about it so I did just skip to the correction. I don’t ‘believe’ in abiotic oil, in any event.

          • Q. Shtik May 27, 2019 at 12:53 pm #

            just the probably inevitable consequence of being a language teacher – GA

            ============

            GA, I’m confused. Are you responding to the Tate comment that JHK Admin deleted? or are you responding to the JHK Admin deletion itself?

          • malthuss May 27, 2019 at 1:14 pm #

            Q, since the source comment was removed, its very hard to tell.

          • GreenAlba May 27, 2019 at 2:09 pm #

            I was responding to Tate, if it matters.

          • Majella May 27, 2019 at 6:47 pm #

            Wow. That must have been some “NASTY” there, Tate.

          • Tate May 27, 2019 at 10:49 pm #

            Not really. My own son suffered from the *unnamed* disorder (which goes by the initials OCD). But it’s on a spectrum, it’s not necessarily especially debilitating. And with therapy, children can get better.

          • Majella May 28, 2019 at 6:54 pm #

            Tate – Really? Is that all?

      • Ol' Scratch May 27, 2019 at 11:23 am #

        In other words, timing matters. Even assuming some oil is abiotic and replenishes naturally, if we use it faster than it replenishes (which we are), we still run out and/or it gets prohibitively more expensive to produce in the short term.

        But abiotic oil in general is just another cargo cult cornucopian myth, allowing to indulge the foolish exponential growth myth of western capitalism and signaling that we’re still deep in the denial phase of coping with our plight.

        • malthuss May 27, 2019 at 11:33 am #

          What do you think the immigrants are for?
          To grow the economy– GDP, baby

          schooling
          hospitalization
          food
          houses
          cars
          roads

          etc

          resource hungry people who do not care about the environment–look at what China has done to its own country.

          • Ol' Scratch May 27, 2019 at 11:47 am #

            True. To further drive down wages and perform the shitty service jobs that no one else will do, then bankrupt government services, enabling their eventual elimination, and leaving everyone to fend for themselves.

          • JimInFlorida May 27, 2019 at 6:47 pm #

            Cloward-Piven, baby! Leading the way for Coudenhove-Kalergi Plan 2.0 (U.S. release) once the 1.0 version bugs are worked out in the E.U.

        • Tate May 27, 2019 at 11:35 am #

          That’s the key to understanding abiotic oil, if it even is a thing. It won’t matter.

        • JimInFlorida May 27, 2019 at 6:52 pm #

          I got an angle most people don’t think about.

          Regardless of whether our oil supply is truly fixed or replenishing itself, nobody is thinking about the AIR SUPPLY i.e breathable oxygen that gets burned by the billions of cubic feet at whatever rate it burns.

          All of that carbon, in whatever form, requires a lot more oxygen to burn than the mass of the fuel itself. I contend that the Earth’s ability to generate oxygen or convert via plant life is limited.

          We may even start talking about PEAK AIR before PEAK OIL becomes a serious problem.

      • benr May 27, 2019 at 5:00 pm #

        I first heard about the topic on Coast to Coast am around twenty years ago and thought sounds like hogwash to me.
        I tend to keep topics like this on the back of my mind so to speak and what jogged it to the forefront I saw areas that had not had a natural seep in years start pushing oil out again.
        I reference Ojai and Ventura because my dad just bought property up in that area and there is a bunch of oil coming out of the ground around there.
        They actually tore down great surf spot just south of Mussel shoals called Oil piers rusty old eye soar at best but this time of year it produced some of the only rideable waves in the area.
        As far as the site goes it was not an end all be all source for anything other than to introduce a topic.

  5. Robert White May 27, 2019 at 10:29 am #

    My take here is that the USA MIC cannot engage in hot war or a preemptive first strike against anyone given debt & deficit that is currently intractable to pay off. Moreover, China & Russian Federation will consolidate their war machines in opposition to the USA MIC & NATO collaboration.

    Not only is the USA MIC wholly insolvent but they are morally bankrupt as well as historically known to be psychopathically oriented to the extent that government leadership never learns from past mistakes such as Iraq, or Vietnam.

    Bottom line is that energy and world reserve currency status is not enough to replace ethics & morality on a global level so that NATO can have free range to create mass murder & global mayhem.

    It’s time to realize that BIG oil will not save America from long due comeuppance. The long emergency is akin to bankruptcy as it happens slowly at first and then it manifests all of a sudden into chapter 11.

    RW

    • Ol' Scratch May 27, 2019 at 11:14 am #

      They both can’t do it (from a common sense standpoint) and can’t not do it (from a survival standpoint). Which will they choose? Predicting the actions of psychopaths is always difficult, but I predict they’ll lash out militarily eventually and suffer an embarrassing defeat(s). That will spell the end the military empire, the end of the petrodollar, and very likely the end of the DC/NYC/London/Jerusalem-based USA Inc. as a going concern, after which Israel will throw the empire under the bus, make new arrangements with the Chinese and Russians, and press on with pride, having completed the destruction of their pathetic US client state. Ever opportunistic globalist US billionaires will desert the place in droves and “we the people” will be left to deal with the aftermath. Fitting, really.

      • Robert White May 28, 2019 at 1:06 pm #

        Very astute comment, Ol’ Scratch.

        RW

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  1. Pucker May 27, 2019 at 10:04 am #

    What do you think of “Hyper Ethnic Change”?

    “Few debates about national populism fail to mention immigration; this is why it is crucial to explore exactly how this issue and the wider ethnic transformation of the West are creating room for revolts like Brexit, Trump and populists in Europe. Again, we need to step back and take in the broad view. While many Western nations, not least the US, have experienced immigration in recent centuries, more recent flows have often been unprecedented in size, involved different types of migrants, and are more broadly ushering in an era of what we call ‘hyper ethnic change’. This is causing significant fears and resentment among large numbers of voters, which will likely accelerate. However, we reject the popular claim that national populism is simply a refuge for racists and people driven by an irrational fear of ‘the other’. While racists are undoubtedly drawn to national populists, by no means everybody who votes for them is racist. Rather, national populists often raise legitimate questions such as what number of immigrants can be accommodated, what skill set they should have and whether new arrivals should have access to the same benefits as long-standing citizens. Anxieties about the scale and pace of ethnic change are not simply rooted in economics and the availability of jobs. Despite what many on the liberal left claim, and as nearly twenty years of research have shown, what is just as important, if not more so, are people’s fears about how immigration and ethnic change are seen to threaten their national identity. Our overarching argument is that national populism partly reflects deep-rooted public fears about how a new era of immigration and hyper ethnic change could lead to the destruction of their wider group and way of life.“

    Roger Eatwell
    National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy

    • Neon Vincent May 27, 2019 at 11:30 am #

      And a somber Memorial Day to you and the rest of Kunstler’s readers. At this rate, I won’t have to buy the book. You’ll reproduce it here paragraph by paragraph in serial form. I suppose I should thank you.

      That’s rather snide, Neon Vincent. I put a lot of effort and thought into writing these original blogs, and for-the-record, my next book has already gone through all its edits and I’m not running excerpts of it here. –JHK Admin

      • elysianfield May 27, 2019 at 11:44 am #

        Neon,
        Have you seen today’s “Google Doodle” on their homepage? I find it insulting. Google has long failed to honor the USMC on their birthday every year, but does not neglect to celebrate those of various obscure Marxists, or notable events such as Maya Angelou’s first menstrual cycle….

        The gloves are off. I would invite those revanchists at Google to kiss my big black ass….

        • Neon Vincent May 27, 2019 at 11:57 am #

          Yes, I saw today’s Google doodle. I don’t know what’s disrespectful about either an American flag folded into a triangle, which is what I saw this morning, or a gray Google logo followed by a bugle playing “Taps,” which I see now, so I’ll let you explain it. That written, I’ve observed the USMC birthday on my blog twice, albeit combined with Veterans Day. The first time I featured the USMC Drum and Bugle Corps and the second time I featured both the drum corps and United States Marine Band, AKA “The President’s Own.” A friend of mine who marched in the USMC drum corps thanked me for posting those. I hope you enjoy them, too.

          • elysianfield May 27, 2019 at 1:02 pm #

            Neon,
            I saw neither the flag, nor the bugle…just the gray. I changed screens repeatedly, tapping on the logo only mentioned “Memorial Day, 2019”.

      • Neon Vincent May 27, 2019 at 11:46 am #

        That written, it looks like a good explanation of the phenomenon written by a scholar who is not sympathetic to the movement. I could use the analysis. So could the writers for “The Good Fight,” who produced a series of animated musical shorts about the political situation in the U.S. in hopes of getting at least one of them nominated for an Emmy. It worked last year. They’re very funny, but the one mocking Pepe attracted a lot of trolls and downrates. Maybe they could use some help understanding the other side.

        As for the U.S.-China trade dispute we’re in, that’s not helping either U.S. businesses, other than some manufacturers, or U.S. consumers. Speaking of which, another retail chain is going away, as Shopko is liquidating and will be close by the middle of June. The Retail Apocalypse rolls on.

        • Elrond Hubbard May 27, 2019 at 1:11 pm #

          Have you blogged about CBS censoring one of their cartoon shorts, that happened to be about… wait for it… censorship? I’d check but I can’t follow your link from here.

          • Neon Vincent May 27, 2019 at 2:09 pm #

            E.H., I mentioned it in passing, writing “it seemed that every episode this season had an animated musical segment, including the one that was censored.” I didn’t go beyond that, as it wasn’t uploaded to YouTube along with any Good Fight Short after “The Legend of John Barron.” If I want to write about the topic, I’d have to do so indirectly by embedding the Vox video about China’s treatment of the Uighurs and another video about either “The Great Firewall” or Google’s and Facebook’s attempts to enter the Chinese market (Chumhum seems to be an Expy of both tech giants), since the video was never shown to the public, although having it seen as censored may have worked nearly as well.

      • Neon Vincent May 27, 2019 at 2:13 pm #

        Sorry, I JHK, I wasn’t referring to you and I apologize for accidentally offending you. I was referring to Pucker reposting excerpts from Roger Eatwell’s “National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy.” If I was being snide, it wasn’t to you, it was to Pucker. If he wants an apology, I’ll give it to him if he asks.

        • Pucker May 27, 2019 at 3:48 pm #

          Don’t worry about it.

          Some time ago, I quoted from a book that was rather embarrassing to black Americans from a sociological perspective and some bloke kept threatening me with alleged copyright violations, which was a bit weird.

        • gonetohell May 28, 2019 at 3:47 pm #

          So it is revealed that JHK has gotten a tad sensitive, and more than a tad defensive, in his old age.

      • Q. Shtik May 27, 2019 at 2:39 pm #

        JHK,

        Neon V. was talking to Pucker about his endless quotations from National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy by Roger Eatwell. (Interesting last name, no?) He was not being snide to you.

        • K-Dog May 28, 2019 at 12:00 pm #

          Interesting how Pucker anticipated another Golden Golem article and had what could have passed for a thoughtful response per-prepared, shrink-wrapped and ready to go. Interesting how he says ‘Don’t worry about it’ and mentions African Americans in his don’t worry about it response in a totally inappropriate way. Interesting too how nobody calls ‘the bloke’ out. Pucked up to just show up here with your own agenda IMHO. but Puckers agenda is Truptopian. I guess that makes it OK.

      • Majella May 27, 2019 at 6:40 pm #

        JHK – what the actual? This is clearly not aimed at you but at Puker’s constant C&Ping from Mr. Eatwell’s book. I’m a little surprised at the thin-skinned response, especially from a writer of your calibre whom one would expect to have a better level of reading comprehension.

        • gonetohell May 28, 2019 at 1:06 am #

          His next book is said to have been crayoned on a bib while in his assisted living facility.

      • gonetohell May 28, 2019 at 1:00 am #

        By all means buy his next book. In this sequel he’s going to elaborate on how “America’s diminishing capital productivity” is leading to more transgender surgeries. After all, those liberals in Brooklyn and Silicon Valley are always looking for new and interesting ways to spend what’s left of our nation’s wealth. I’m sure he threw Brooklyn in there as some sort of dig on AOC.

        • CancelMyCard May 28, 2019 at 6:48 pm #

          You clearly are an empty-headed,
          flaming asshole . . .

          but then, you already know that.

          • gonetohell May 28, 2019 at 11:00 pm #

            Speaking of assholes, maybe it’s time you finally took that thumb out of yours. You’ll still be a clueless nitwit but you should be able to sit more comfortably.

          • Q. Shtik May 29, 2019 at 1:13 pm #

            flaming asshole . . . – CancelMC

            Speaking of assholes, maybe it’s time you finally took that thumb out of yours. – gonetohell

            ==============

            Oh goody, this is like the good old days when we used to see some nasty ad hominems. Some guy (I think his handle was OEO) would begin a sentence “Hey, Penis breath…”

  2. Pucker May 27, 2019 at 10:06 am #

    I suspect that if one surveyed Asian immigrant populations in the US that you’d find similar disquiet and shock at the “browning” of the US by hyper open border immigration. Go figure….

    “Many leaders and people in Central and Eastern Europe loathe what they see as a cosmopolitan and liberal Europe in the West.”

    Roger Eatwell
    National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy

  3. venuspluto67 May 27, 2019 at 10:16 am #

    And just think, we might have a war with Iran to really put us on that toboggan-slide. Ain’t we got fun!

    • malthuss May 27, 2019 at 10:19 am #

      Ain’t we got fun

      That is an old tune.

      • hmuller May 27, 2019 at 11:49 am #

        “Ain’t We Got Fun” is a popular foxtrot published in 1921 with music by Richard A. Whiting, lyrics by Raymond B. Egan and Gus Kahn.

        It was recorded by such notables as Doris Day, Peggy Lee, Bob Hope, Bing Crosby, and Rosemary Cluny, and a popular cat food commercial of the 1970’s.

        If Biden wins in 2020, the foxtrot could make a big comeback.

        • JimInFlorida May 27, 2019 at 6:42 pm #

          America is incapable of supporting a return of the foxtrot or any other such dance. Our culture is too far gone. Not even the corpse remains; only the sticky silhouette of what used to be. Perhaps a few dusty pictures and memories stored in somebody’s drawer.

          The only “foxtrot” that might show up would be if it’s mixed with twerking and grinding somehow. I don’t even think the current clowns of the entertainment racket even know what 3/4 time is, let alone the circle of fifths.

          • Elrond Hubbard May 28, 2019 at 11:38 am #

            JimInFlorida, I would be cautious about too much nostalgia for a bygone era with too little thought or responsibility. Around the same time the foxtrot was being invented, lynching was at its height in the United States.

            If you want to lament the comely surface of days gone by, you ought to pay attention to the horrors underneath as well. And the horrors weren’t even underneath. Not only were these murder festivals celebrated openly and in public, but it was normal to send picture postcards of lynchings through the mail. What souvenirs those must have made!

          • gonetohell May 28, 2019 at 3:39 pm #

            This isn’t a music blog. So no need to try and impress with your limited knowledge of musical terms. No one here is going to know or care what you mean by circle of fifths or 3/4 time.

        • Anon1970 May 27, 2019 at 9:12 pm #

          In 1956, Doris Day’s hit song song from the movie “The Man Who Knew Too Much” was heavily played on the radio. “Que sera, sera”: Whatever will be will be. It seems more appropriate these days, given the political and economic uncertainty we are living through.

          In 1956, the US was at its peak, in many respects, relative to the rest of the world. It was the year the Interstate Highway Act was passed. President Eisenhower refused to consider tax cuts until the debt related to WWII had been paid off. He kept the US out of the Hungarian Revolution and pressured the British, French and Israelis to give back control of the Suez Canal to Egypt. He was not interested in starting WWIII with Russia.

          63 years later, my standard of living is much higher than it was in 1956, although for many American households, that is not the case. These days, some American college graduates are moving abroad to teach English in China or India or even Ukraine, just to get out from under their massive student loans.

  4. benr May 27, 2019 at 10:28 am #

    The oil fields of Newhall now called Santa Clarita started shutting down in the late 60’s early 70’s as they started drying up and stopped producing.

    Flash forward forty years and lo and behold they are producing again with the same equipment and even stranger the oil seeps have been producing for the last decade or so.

    These were oil wells claimed to have been dried up and died several decades ago.

    Even more strange the oil wells all around Ventura and Ojai are also producing and tar a rare sighting in these parts washing up on the beach is now showing up all over as well.
    A Russian scientist believed Oil is Abiotic and replenishes itself naturally if left alone.

    I have seen something of this first hand and during periods when it’s not simply the water table pushing oil out.

    principia-scientific.org/russians-nasa-discredit-fossil-fuel-theory-demise-of-junk-co2-science/

    The piece has a nod to our host.

    • GreenAlba May 27, 2019 at 11:11 am #

      Well, benr, I don’t think I’ll be paying much attention to anything Principia-Scientific says in future.

      The quote from Richard Heinberg, whom I used to read quite prolifically, intrigued me, so I checkout out his views on abiotic oil,which are there for all to see if you just google, unsurprisingly, ‘Richard Heinberg abiotic oil’. And here they are for your delectation and further clarification:

      richardheinberg.com/richard-heinberg-on-abiotic-oil

      Here’s the Principia-S quote:

      “Indeed, so lame has the fossil fuel theory become that even its most strident supporters are unable to muster the flimsiest of evidence for their position. In “The Abiotic Oil Controversy” key proponent of the abiotic (fossil) origin, Richard Heinberg admits his case is exposed as threadbare lamenting,

      “Perhaps one day there will be general agreement that at least some oil is indeed abiotic. Maybe there are indeed deep methane belts twenty miles below the Earth’s surface.”

      And here’s what Richard Heinberg actually said:

      Perhaps one day there will be general agreement that at least some oil is indeed abiotic. Maybe there are indeed deep methane belts twenty miles below the Earth’s surface. But the important question to keep in mind is: What are the practical consequences of this discussion now for the problem of global oil depletion?

      “I have not personally inspected the oil wells in Saudi Arabia or even those in Texas. But nearly every credible report that I have seen – whether from the industry or from an independent scientist – describes essentially the same reality: discoveries are declining, and have been since the 1960s. Spare production capacity is practically gone. And the old, super-giant oil fields that the world depends upon for the majority of its production are nearing or past their all-time production peaks. Not even the Russian fields cited by the abiotic theorists as evidence for their views are immune: in June the head of Russia’s Federal Energy Agency said that production for 2005 is likely to remain flat or even drop, while other officials in that country have said that growth in Russian production cannot be sustained for more than another few years. (15)”

      “Given the ongoing runup in global petroleum prices, the notion of peak oil hardly needs defending these days. We are seeing the phenomenon unfold before our eyes as one nation after another moves from the column of “oil ” to that of “oil importers” (Great Britain made the leap this year). At some point in the very near future the remaining nations in column A will simply be unable to supply all of the nations in column B.

      “In short, the global energy crisis is coming upon us very quickly, so that more time spent debating highly speculative theories can only distract us from exploring, and applying ourselves to, the practical strategies that might preserve more of nature, culture, and human life under the conditions that are rapidly developing.

      There’s more, but you can read it yourself.

      So you can have Principia-not-remotely-Scientifica and not even honest, and I’ll stick with Richard Heinberg, thanks.

      • GreenAlba May 27, 2019 at 11:12 am #

        *checked out*

        • Tate May 27, 2019 at 11:33 am #

          Deleted by JHK Admin for personal nastiness to another commenter.

          • GreenAlba May 27, 2019 at 12:10 pm #

            Nope. It’s just the probably inevitable consequence of being a language teacher, then working in publishing. My profuse apologies. I somehow thought you’d be more interested in the content, but I guess there’s nothing really to say about that, so well done you.

          • GreenAlba May 27, 2019 at 12:13 pm #

            Did you even notice they referred to Heinberg as a ‘key proponent of the abiotic (fossil) origin’? Or did you just get to ‘checkout’ and skip to the correction?

          • Tate May 27, 2019 at 12:52 pm #

            Well, I was curious about it so I did just skip to the correction. I don’t ‘believe’ in abiotic oil, in any event.

          • Q. Shtik May 27, 2019 at 12:53 pm #

            just the probably inevitable consequence of being a language teacher – GA

            ============

            GA, I’m confused. Are you responding to the Tate comment that JHK Admin deleted? or are you responding to the JHK Admin deletion itself?

          • malthuss May 27, 2019 at 1:14 pm #

            Q, since the source comment was removed, its very hard to tell.

          • GreenAlba May 27, 2019 at 2:09 pm #

            I was responding to Tate, if it matters.

          • Majella May 27, 2019 at 6:47 pm #

            Wow. That must have been some “NASTY” there, Tate.

          • Tate May 27, 2019 at 10:49 pm #

            Not really. My own son suffered from the *unnamed* disorder (which goes by the initials OCD). But it’s on a spectrum, it’s not necessarily especially debilitating. And with therapy, children can get better.

          • Majella May 28, 2019 at 6:54 pm #

            Tate – Really? Is that all?

      • Ol' Scratch May 27, 2019 at 11:23 am #

        In other words, timing matters. Even assuming some oil is abiotic and replenishes naturally, if we use it faster than it replenishes (which we are), we still run out and/or it gets prohibitively more expensive to produce in the short term.

        But abiotic oil in general is just another cargo cult cornucopian myth, allowing to indulge the foolish exponential growth myth of western capitalism and signaling that we’re still deep in the denial phase of coping with our plight.

        • malthuss May 27, 2019 at 11:33 am #

          What do you think the immigrants are for?
          To grow the economy– GDP, baby

          schooling
          hospitalization
          food
          houses
          cars
          roads

          etc

          resource hungry people who do not care about the environment–look at what China has done to its own country.

          • Ol' Scratch May 27, 2019 at 11:47 am #

            True. To further drive down wages and perform the shitty service jobs that no one else will do, then bankrupt government services, enabling their eventual elimination, and leaving everyone to fend for themselves.

          • JimInFlorida May 27, 2019 at 6:47 pm #

            Cloward-Piven, baby! Leading the way for Coudenhove-Kalergi Plan 2.0 (U.S. release) once the 1.0 version bugs are worked out in the E.U.

        • Tate May 27, 2019 at 11:35 am #

          That’s the key to understanding abiotic oil, if it even is a thing. It won’t matter.

        • JimInFlorida May 27, 2019 at 6:52 pm #

          I got an angle most people don’t think about.

          Regardless of whether our oil supply is truly fixed or replenishing itself, nobody is thinking about the AIR SUPPLY i.e breathable oxygen that gets burned by the billions of cubic feet at whatever rate it burns.

          All of that carbon, in whatever form, requires a lot more oxygen to burn than the mass of the fuel itself. I contend that the Earth’s ability to generate oxygen or convert via plant life is limited.

          We may even start talking about PEAK AIR before PEAK OIL becomes a serious problem.

      • benr May 27, 2019 at 5:00 pm #

        I first heard about the topic on Coast to Coast am around twenty years ago and thought sounds like hogwash to me.
        I tend to keep topics like this on the back of my mind so to speak and what jogged it to the forefront I saw areas that had not had a natural seep in years start pushing oil out again.
        I reference Ojai and Ventura because my dad just bought property up in that area and there is a bunch of oil coming out of the ground around there.
        They actually tore down great surf spot just south of Mussel shoals called Oil piers rusty old eye soar at best but this time of year it produced some of the only rideable waves in the area.
        As far as the site goes it was not an end all be all source for anything other than to introduce a topic.

  5. Robert White May 27, 2019 at 10:29 am #

    My take here is that the USA MIC cannot engage in hot war or a preemptive first strike against anyone given debt & deficit that is currently intractable to pay off. Moreover, China & Russian Federation will consolidate their war machines in opposition to the USA MIC & NATO collaboration.

    Not only is the USA MIC wholly insolvent but they are morally bankrupt as well as historically known to be psychopathically oriented to the extent that government leadership never learns from past mistakes such as Iraq, or Vietnam.

    Bottom line is that energy and world reserve currency status is not enough to replace ethics & morality on a global level so that NATO can have free range to create mass murder & global mayhem.

    It’s time to realize that BIG oil will not save America from long due comeuppance. The long emergency is akin to bankruptcy as it happens slowly at first and then it manifests all of a sudden into chapter 11.

    RW

    • Ol' Scratch May 27, 2019 at 11:14 am #

      They both can’t do it (from a common sense standpoint) and can’t not do it (from a survival standpoint). Which will they choose? Predicting the actions of psychopaths is always difficult, but I predict they’ll lash out militarily eventually and suffer an embarrassing defeat(s). That will spell the end the military empire, the end of the petrodollar, and very likely the end of the DC/NYC/London/Jerusalem-based USA Inc. as a going concern, after which Israel will throw the empire under the bus, make new arrangements with the Chinese and Russians, and press on with pride, having completed the destruction of their pathetic US client state. Ever opportunistic globalist US billionaires will desert the place in droves and “we the people” will be left to deal with the aftermath. Fitting, really.

      • Robert White May 28, 2019 at 1:06 pm #

        Very astute comment, Ol’ Scratch.

        RW

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