Three major issues that America is confronted with are (i) $36 trillion unsustainable national debt, (ii) the war in Ukraine, and (iii) the ME conflict.
Three major issues that America is confronted with are (i) $36 trillion unsustainable national debt, (ii) the war in Ukraine, and (iii) the ME conflict.
Unless dealt with, it is my impression that the national debt issue by itself will lead US (and much of the world) to the point that Thomas Madden describes.
Armstrong contends that the business cycle is inevitable, and civilization needs to learn to live with it.
So, you want to switch horses at this point in time (basically, not support Trump, and start promoting another solution for 2026 or 2028).
I would suggest that the world does not have the luxury of that much time, and I would encourage you (and others) to consider solutions that might mitigate the Sovereign Debt Crisis, and then consider how Trump's actions might be addressing the problems, realizing that solutions, because of factors beyond his control, just amount to a grand experiment.
First, consider that he is trying to reduce the number of factors that are beyond his control. A big one would be if he had a united world population to support his grand experiment. In this regard, like JHK, he is trying to inform the population about the immoral activity of the obstructionists, and gaining the support of the moral segment of the population to back his endeavor to deal with the various entities/factions (both nationally, and internationally).
Viewing a variety of perspectives, my assessment is that it is the Globalists who will be responsible for WWIII should it come to that, and I view a variety of paths whereby Trump can be a key player in achieving world peace.
And, as far as Trump bungling the "reindustrialization" with his mass-attack-on-ALL-fronts tariffs against everyone, what happens if he ends up uniting a majority of the countries of the world, and with this group, counters the obstructionists? Many leaders throughout the world are still married to the 2030 Agenda, and we see with individuals like Larry Fink, they are not all complete idiots. Once they come to the realization that the 2030 Agenda has failed, then perhaps they will be open to entertaining other solutions (success for one will entail success for all).
Then, when unity is achieved, the needs of the general population will need to be attended to, and assuming that there will be die-hard globalists who intend to obstruct Trumps agenda in this regard, this is where I see a need for people like Miriam Adelson, Elon Musk, and other big money people to create business activity to mitigate the devaluation and avoid the nightmare scenario that default would bring. I also foresee a need for mega projects, as well as the need for a new format for life.
As far as the wars, do you not see "good points of light" in that trouble makers are being targeted? Is the individual that prompted the protest against Hamas a plant? Doesn't the support that he has generated imply that Hamas is not the only solution? Are the Nazis in Ukraine the good guys, or the troublemakers?
I view a perspective whereby Trump is addressing the issues in a logical manner, and am encouraged by his achievements to this point, realizing that only time will tell if his grand experiment will be a success. But, at this point in time, I also see no other good option.
Disagree. The major issue of the USA is how its people view themselves. They have been told by their government for 70 yeras that you are too stupid to run yourselves, just let us take care of you. The reaction has been very human. 50% of this country sign up to letting the government run their lives.
That is very expensive, $36 trillion to be exact. Another one to drop in is the $50 or so trillion individual debt that Joe Average faces today. The country has to face the idea that none of it is going to be re-paid and what does that mean?
In the meantime, how the heck do we get 50% of the country to take on the responsibility for their own lives? Until that happens, everything else is minor. Remember that that debt is largely there because of that 50%' s irresponsibility.
Read them again. Disagree may have been too strong a word.
My point is that the formation of national or global debt is still the desire of governments to “take care of the people”. Why? To gain political advantage.
Think about what causes the debt. Why are the government nebbishes always trying to tax and spend? To get our vote, to get the majority of the votes to maintain their power. Put those interest rates down, cut those taxes, encourage unwarranted spending and investment, for what? To create more money, more spending, etc.etc. What causes downturns? When the credit suppliers run out of real money and start to create new money with no backing. Add on that the government has probably added on higher interest rates and you get the public saying “No Mas”, I cannot afford this any more. The slide begins!
Keynes, at this point says, okay government, spend more, keep those people working, flood the money market, MAKE THINGS WORSE. It just extends the up curve even longer and makes the resultant collapse larger and longer. The Great Depression had the government increase spending per Keynes, and the really main lesson was lost as the spending made things worse, the height of unemployment was 1936. The end of the Depression happened because of two factors, we made “bullets”, disposables, war material, and second, we killed off a portion of the unemployed. Returning veterans had no fear, and consumer spent like crazy, keeping demand for investment high. I was a kid then and remember interest rates in low single digits. Cars were built to last about 50000 miles, and trading in after 2 years was common. New products as the result of investments came fast and furious. The Fifties, good times.
Anyhow, back to the subject at hand. The business cycle is a product of the reaction of people to spending and interest rates, period. If people see a market or even a potential market they invest and spend, That is Supply Side economics. If the markets succeed they keep spending and investing, to the point of speculation. There is the rub, speculation, spending at high risk. Then the Fed raises interest rates, budgets collapse and the spending slows rapidly. Then the long term debts start coming due and the collapse start. The CDOs that banks invented to increase speculation in 2008, collapsed the banks as the people had no way to pay the increased ARM mortgages that comprised the CDOs. Michael Burrey predicted this collapse (see The Big Short), and even predicted the day it would happen. I was on vacation as I watched the Market collapse. Get it? Predictable by someone who used common sense.
Well, as I said, what is the common denominator? People, all the people. The articles say that the business cycle is behind all the shenanigans and it is not understood very well. Well , no kidding. Human behavior is just plain crazy. A joke I heard long ago, “Line up a hundred economists on a straight line. They will all be pointing in a different direction.” For every human with an opinion, there will be another with the opposite opinion. Humans are fickle, period. No amplify that trait by creating governments, power centers that are fickle times a 1000%. Now try to use “common sense” to run he people’s economy. Uh huh? Now try to get that government to be inspired by one of those divergent economists and what do you have, chaos, conflicting ideas, constantly changing conditions and interest rates, IOW, the business cycle.
So what to do? Lock in interest rates at a reasonable level and stop changing them. Low enough to inspire controlled investment but high enough to stop to stop speculation. Do not allow the government to spend for the sake of spending, especially to get the vote. John McCain was right when he tried to stop the escalating spending for elections. Vote for controlled spending, vote for controlled immigration, vote against welfare. Stop Keynesian spending, it just makes things worse. The people need to spend, invest, save not the damned government. Kill the Deep State, quit voting in people that promise you “A chicken in every pot” or today, “A flat screen in every house”. Use the vote to destroy Wokeism, the doctrine that says you deserve all the goodies, regardless of your willingness to earn them. In succinct terms, quit supporting the “gimme”, I am owed attitude that has allowed the Leftist 50% of this country to get away with economic murder.
There it is again, 50%. The people, the people run a civilization. Governments come and go, the people are responsible. This country has to stop the “Easy Street” mentality and get back to work. Or it will join the heritage of so many “empires” before it.
We are at odds in that Capitalism is a game where the goal is, essentially, disparity.
I would suggest that when migration is taken into account, that disparity is at an extreme. The product is a "dog eat dog" world, where a huge segment of the population is either not "wired", or not fortunate (lucky) enough to compete.
Will the private sector solve this problem? Can the government solve this problem? Do you see the steps that Trump is taking to address this problem?
Yes, capitalism is disparity, the human condition on earth is the same as any other species, based on competition for food and resources. The world is Dog-eat-dog and for humans that means the strongest, smartest, most gifted individuals have the advantage and will survive. Look to the world before the liberal response to the Great Depression. Poor people in the USA and around the world starved if they could not compete.
Private Sector - Let em starve. Wee will give charity for some.
Government - ha, the greatest con job in history. We will feed you as long as you side with us. humans just suck up to that. Until the people are ambitious enough, ‘the poor will always be with us”.
Trump - also easy, he says it straight out. We will take care of the people of America first. Period. The rest of the world is going to hate us for a while because we have so screwed ourselves up, We do not have much left over for them.
Three major issues that America is confronted with are (i) $36 trillion unsustainable national debt, (ii) the war in Ukraine, and (iii) the ME conflict.
Scared of the National Debt? You Should Be.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/scared-of-the-national-debt-you-should-be/
The Business Cycle & National Debt
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/the-business-cycle-national-debt/
Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/sovereign-debt-crisis-unfolding/
Unless dealt with, it is my impression that the national debt issue by itself will lead US (and much of the world) to the point that Thomas Madden describes.
Armstrong contends that the business cycle is inevitable, and civilization needs to learn to live with it.
So, you want to switch horses at this point in time (basically, not support Trump, and start promoting another solution for 2026 or 2028).
I would suggest that the world does not have the luxury of that much time, and I would encourage you (and others) to consider solutions that might mitigate the Sovereign Debt Crisis, and then consider how Trump's actions might be addressing the problems, realizing that solutions, because of factors beyond his control, just amount to a grand experiment.
First, consider that he is trying to reduce the number of factors that are beyond his control. A big one would be if he had a united world population to support his grand experiment. In this regard, like JHK, he is trying to inform the population about the immoral activity of the obstructionists, and gaining the support of the moral segment of the population to back his endeavor to deal with the various entities/factions (both nationally, and internationally).
Viewing a variety of perspectives, my assessment is that it is the Globalists who will be responsible for WWIII should it come to that, and I view a variety of paths whereby Trump can be a key player in achieving world peace.
And, as far as Trump bungling the "reindustrialization" with his mass-attack-on-ALL-fronts tariffs against everyone, what happens if he ends up uniting a majority of the countries of the world, and with this group, counters the obstructionists? Many leaders throughout the world are still married to the 2030 Agenda, and we see with individuals like Larry Fink, they are not all complete idiots. Once they come to the realization that the 2030 Agenda has failed, then perhaps they will be open to entertaining other solutions (success for one will entail success for all).
Then, when unity is achieved, the needs of the general population will need to be attended to, and assuming that there will be die-hard globalists who intend to obstruct Trumps agenda in this regard, this is where I see a need for people like Miriam Adelson, Elon Musk, and other big money people to create business activity to mitigate the devaluation and avoid the nightmare scenario that default would bring. I also foresee a need for mega projects, as well as the need for a new format for life.
As far as the wars, do you not see "good points of light" in that trouble makers are being targeted? Is the individual that prompted the protest against Hamas a plant? Doesn't the support that he has generated imply that Hamas is not the only solution? Are the Nazis in Ukraine the good guys, or the troublemakers?
I view a perspective whereby Trump is addressing the issues in a logical manner, and am encouraged by his achievements to this point, realizing that only time will tell if his grand experiment will be a success. But, at this point in time, I also see no other good option.
IAN
Disagree. The major issue of the USA is how its people view themselves. They have been told by their government for 70 yeras that you are too stupid to run yourselves, just let us take care of you. The reaction has been very human. 50% of this country sign up to letting the government run their lives.
That is very expensive, $36 trillion to be exact. Another one to drop in is the $50 or so trillion individual debt that Joe Average faces today. The country has to face the idea that none of it is going to be re-paid and what does that mean?
In the meantime, how the heck do we get 50% of the country to take on the responsibility for their own lives? Until that happens, everything else is minor. Remember that that debt is largely there because of that 50%' s irresponsibility.
John, it is quite obvious that you didn't read any of the reference material.
Read them again. Disagree may have been too strong a word.
My point is that the formation of national or global debt is still the desire of governments to “take care of the people”. Why? To gain political advantage.
Think about what causes the debt. Why are the government nebbishes always trying to tax and spend? To get our vote, to get the majority of the votes to maintain their power. Put those interest rates down, cut those taxes, encourage unwarranted spending and investment, for what? To create more money, more spending, etc.etc. What causes downturns? When the credit suppliers run out of real money and start to create new money with no backing. Add on that the government has probably added on higher interest rates and you get the public saying “No Mas”, I cannot afford this any more. The slide begins!
Keynes, at this point says, okay government, spend more, keep those people working, flood the money market, MAKE THINGS WORSE. It just extends the up curve even longer and makes the resultant collapse larger and longer. The Great Depression had the government increase spending per Keynes, and the really main lesson was lost as the spending made things worse, the height of unemployment was 1936. The end of the Depression happened because of two factors, we made “bullets”, disposables, war material, and second, we killed off a portion of the unemployed. Returning veterans had no fear, and consumer spent like crazy, keeping demand for investment high. I was a kid then and remember interest rates in low single digits. Cars were built to last about 50000 miles, and trading in after 2 years was common. New products as the result of investments came fast and furious. The Fifties, good times.
Anyhow, back to the subject at hand. The business cycle is a product of the reaction of people to spending and interest rates, period. If people see a market or even a potential market they invest and spend, That is Supply Side economics. If the markets succeed they keep spending and investing, to the point of speculation. There is the rub, speculation, spending at high risk. Then the Fed raises interest rates, budgets collapse and the spending slows rapidly. Then the long term debts start coming due and the collapse start. The CDOs that banks invented to increase speculation in 2008, collapsed the banks as the people had no way to pay the increased ARM mortgages that comprised the CDOs. Michael Burrey predicted this collapse (see The Big Short), and even predicted the day it would happen. I was on vacation as I watched the Market collapse. Get it? Predictable by someone who used common sense.
Well, as I said, what is the common denominator? People, all the people. The articles say that the business cycle is behind all the shenanigans and it is not understood very well. Well , no kidding. Human behavior is just plain crazy. A joke I heard long ago, “Line up a hundred economists on a straight line. They will all be pointing in a different direction.” For every human with an opinion, there will be another with the opposite opinion. Humans are fickle, period. No amplify that trait by creating governments, power centers that are fickle times a 1000%. Now try to use “common sense” to run he people’s economy. Uh huh? Now try to get that government to be inspired by one of those divergent economists and what do you have, chaos, conflicting ideas, constantly changing conditions and interest rates, IOW, the business cycle.
So what to do? Lock in interest rates at a reasonable level and stop changing them. Low enough to inspire controlled investment but high enough to stop to stop speculation. Do not allow the government to spend for the sake of spending, especially to get the vote. John McCain was right when he tried to stop the escalating spending for elections. Vote for controlled spending, vote for controlled immigration, vote against welfare. Stop Keynesian spending, it just makes things worse. The people need to spend, invest, save not the damned government. Kill the Deep State, quit voting in people that promise you “A chicken in every pot” or today, “A flat screen in every house”. Use the vote to destroy Wokeism, the doctrine that says you deserve all the goodies, regardless of your willingness to earn them. In succinct terms, quit supporting the “gimme”, I am owed attitude that has allowed the Leftist 50% of this country to get away with economic murder.
There it is again, 50%. The people, the people run a civilization. Governments come and go, the people are responsible. This country has to stop the “Easy Street” mentality and get back to work. Or it will join the heritage of so many “empires” before it.
We are at odds in that Capitalism is a game where the goal is, essentially, disparity.
I would suggest that when migration is taken into account, that disparity is at an extreme. The product is a "dog eat dog" world, where a huge segment of the population is either not "wired", or not fortunate (lucky) enough to compete.
Will the private sector solve this problem? Can the government solve this problem? Do you see the steps that Trump is taking to address this problem?
Oho. Easy answers.
Yes, capitalism is disparity, the human condition on earth is the same as any other species, based on competition for food and resources. The world is Dog-eat-dog and for humans that means the strongest, smartest, most gifted individuals have the advantage and will survive. Look to the world before the liberal response to the Great Depression. Poor people in the USA and around the world starved if they could not compete.
Private Sector - Let em starve. Wee will give charity for some.
Government - ha, the greatest con job in history. We will feed you as long as you side with us. humans just suck up to that. Until the people are ambitious enough, ‘the poor will always be with us”.
Trump - also easy, he says it straight out. We will take care of the people of America first. Period. The rest of the world is going to hate us for a while because we have so screwed ourselves up, We do not have much left over for them.
Sorry about the tome. Your challenge inspired me.
Gilbert Doctorow's perspectives on all the major issues:
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Transcript of ‘Judging Freedom’ edition of 3 April
**
Transcript of ‘Judging Freedom,’ 9 April edition
**
Trump and tariffs
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2025
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/page/2/