If the scenarios that you present are anywhere close to reality, then shouldn't the citizens unite and support Trump, no matter what path he chooses to take us down?
If the scenarios that you present are anywhere close to reality, then shouldn't the citizens unite and support Trump, no matter what path he chooses to take us down?
Perhaps. If there was a Dollar collapse in the middle of a cold winter here in the US, by the end of one week most of the population would be starving, suffering from dehydration, and suffering from hypothermia. Not everyone would be troubled by these problems, though, as many would not survive one full week after the country descended into total and complete anarchy, with no currency of value, no means of exchange, no power/running water/gas heat/internet/cell phone service etc. Most people would be far safer if the US was hit by a dozen nukes than if there was a currency collapse. It would make living through the Plague/Black Death, or the Spanish Flu, or the Great Depression, all look like great times, by comparison. The book I read laid out, with great precision, how hour by our stores would have their shelves stripped bare and be burned, how anyone who had anything of value would be at grave risk of being robbed at gunpoint or murdered for their possessions, by desperate starving people in the days following the collapse, and worse. I have always feared a Dollar Collapse, more than any other disaster that could hit the USA. To me, the really scary thing is that it could happen, in a blind panic, at any moment, and if the US keeps steadily going bankrupt, it probably will happen someday.
Be the gray man, stay away from crowds,and keep yer yap shut about what you have stashed. Easier said then done.Thing is most tough guys don't want to be the first one in their crew to die.
" To me, the really scary thing is that it could happen, in a blind panic, at any moment, and if the US keeps steadily going bankrupt, it probably will happen someday. " ~ Thomas Madden
"China and now even Canada, are issuing debt denominated in US dollars. The older issues have also lost on the foreign exchange. Carney in Canada has just demonstrated his true lack of understanding of financial markets. He dumped US Treasuries but then issued Canadian debt denominated in dollars. As the C$ declines, he will lose on the return of the foreign exchange as well. Even the OECD report found that the costs of borrowing through dollar-denominated bonds had risen from around 4% in 2020 to more than 6% in 2024, rising to more than 8% for riskier, junk-rated economies nations."
Soylent Green. A classic dystopian film starring Charlton Heston.
Soylent Green should be viewed as an allegory about how we're supposed to be more aware of the injustices the ultra-wealthy have inflicted on everyone else. The film's ending could almost be viewed as saying, "Hey, bad things are out there, and you need to search for the truth."
What happens after that? It probably won't be as pretty as a bunch of flowers in a field, we'll say that much.
No. Trump was useful in ending Biden/Harris regime. It is time to assess, and if Trump, in practice, is no better, or even worse, then it will be useful to end the Trump regime in 2026 or 2028.
Unfortunately, the trajectory is one of decline. I had presumed that with Trump this rate of decline would slow considerably, and he might, maybe, sow the seeds of a reversal. While "outing" USAID and other excesses are good points of light, they don't count for much if Trump bungles the "reindustrialization" with his mass-attack-on-ALL-fronts tariffs against everyone, or if "peace" President Trump wastes even more money on the military-industrial complex or fans the existing flames of hot wars into WW3 faster than Harris would have.
"He's not Biden or Harris or Hillary" is not good enough for me, if his results are just as bad.
I agree with you here. Trump, like adm. 1 is hamstrung by the enormous power of the Deep State, they control just about everything in the federal government. If Trump believes in the Constitution, the actual power lies outside the executive branch. The national trajectory has been negative, under the control of the Deep State, for 70 years. I am very pro-Trump, as you know, as a counterforce to this trajectory, but I am afraid he may not be enough to reverse the wheels of government.
One thing is for sure, until the judiciary is put into its proper place re: the Constitution, Trump is pretty much locked up.
Three major issues that America is confronted with are (i) $36 trillion unsustainable national debt, (ii) the war in Ukraine, and (iii) the ME conflict.
Unless dealt with, it is my impression that the national debt issue by itself will lead US (and much of the world) to the point that Thomas Madden describes.
Armstrong contends that the business cycle is inevitable, and civilization needs to learn to live with it.
So, you want to switch horses at this point in time (basically, not support Trump, and start promoting another solution for 2026 or 2028).
I would suggest that the world does not have the luxury of that much time, and I would encourage you (and others) to consider solutions that might mitigate the Sovereign Debt Crisis, and then consider how Trump's actions might be addressing the problems, realizing that solutions, because of factors beyond his control, just amount to a grand experiment.
First, consider that he is trying to reduce the number of factors that are beyond his control. A big one would be if he had a united world population to support his grand experiment. In this regard, like JHK, he is trying to inform the population about the immoral activity of the obstructionists, and gaining the support of the moral segment of the population to back his endeavor to deal with the various entities/factions (both nationally, and internationally).
Viewing a variety of perspectives, my assessment is that it is the Globalists who will be responsible for WWIII should it come to that, and I view a variety of paths whereby Trump can be a key player in achieving world peace.
And, as far as Trump bungling the "reindustrialization" with his mass-attack-on-ALL-fronts tariffs against everyone, what happens if he ends up uniting a majority of the countries of the world, and with this group, counters the obstructionists? Many leaders throughout the world are still married to the 2030 Agenda, and we see with individuals like Larry Fink, they are not all complete idiots. Once they come to the realization that the 2030 Agenda has failed, then perhaps they will be open to entertaining other solutions (success for one will entail success for all).
Then, when unity is achieved, the needs of the general population will need to be attended to, and assuming that there will be die-hard globalists who intend to obstruct Trumps agenda in this regard, this is where I see a need for people like Miriam Adelson, Elon Musk, and other big money people to create business activity to mitigate the devaluation and avoid the nightmare scenario that default would bring. I also foresee a need for mega projects, as well as the need for a new format for life.
As far as the wars, do you not see "good points of light" in that trouble makers are being targeted? Is the individual that prompted the protest against Hamas a plant? Doesn't the support that he has generated imply that Hamas is not the only solution? Are the Nazis in Ukraine the good guys, or the troublemakers?
I view a perspective whereby Trump is addressing the issues in a logical manner, and am encouraged by his achievements to this point, realizing that only time will tell if his grand experiment will be a success. But, at this point in time, I also see no other good option.
Disagree. The major issue of the USA is how its people view themselves. They have been told by their government for 70 yeras that you are too stupid to run yourselves, just let us take care of you. The reaction has been very human. 50% of this country sign up to letting the government run their lives.
That is very expensive, $36 trillion to be exact. Another one to drop in is the $50 or so trillion individual debt that Joe Average faces today. The country has to face the idea that none of it is going to be re-paid and what does that mean?
In the meantime, how the heck do we get 50% of the country to take on the responsibility for their own lives? Until that happens, everything else is minor. Remember that that debt is largely there because of that 50%' s irresponsibility.
Read them again. Disagree may have been too strong a word.
My point is that the formation of national or global debt is still the desire of governments to тАЬtake care of the peopleтАЭ. Why? To gain political advantage.
Think about what causes the debt. Why are the government nebbishes always trying to tax and spend? To get our vote, to get the majority of the votes to maintain their power. Put those interest rates down, cut those taxes, encourage unwarranted spending and investment, for what? To create more money, more spending, etc.etc. What causes downturns? When the credit suppliers run out of real money and start to create new money with no backing. Add on that the government has probably added on higher interest rates and you get the public saying тАЬNo MasтАЭ, I cannot afford this any more. The slide begins!
Keynes, at this point says, okay government, spend more, keep those people working, flood the money market, MAKE THINGS WORSE. It just extends the up curve even longer and makes the resultant collapse larger and longer. The Great Depression had the government increase spending per Keynes, and the really main lesson was lost as the spending made things worse, the height of unemployment was 1936. The end of the Depression happened because of two factors, we made тАЬbulletsтАЭ, disposables, war material, and second, we killed off a portion of the unemployed. Returning veterans had no fear, and consumer spent like crazy, keeping demand for investment high. I was a kid then and remember interest rates in low single digits. Cars were built to last about 50000 miles, and trading in after 2 years was common. New products as the result of investments came fast and furious. The Fifties, good times.
Anyhow, back to the subject at hand. The business cycle is a product of the reaction of people to spending and interest rates, period. If people see a market or even a potential market they invest and spend, That is Supply Side economics. If the markets succeed they keep spending and investing, to the point of speculation. There is the rub, speculation, spending at high risk. Then the Fed raises interest rates, budgets collapse and the spending slows rapidly. Then the long term debts start coming due and the collapse start. The CDOs that banks invented to increase speculation in 2008, collapsed the banks as the people had no way to pay the increased ARM mortgages that comprised the CDOs. Michael Burrey predicted this collapse (see The Big Short), and even predicted the day it would happen. I was on vacation as I watched the Market collapse. Get it? Predictable by someone who used common sense.
Well, as I said, what is the common denominator? People, all the people. The articles say that the business cycle is behind all the shenanigans and it is not understood very well. Well , no kidding. Human behavior is just plain crazy. A joke I heard long ago, тАЬLine up a hundred economists on a straight line. They will all be pointing in a different direction.тАЭ For every human with an opinion, there will be another with the opposite opinion. Humans are fickle, period. No amplify that trait by creating governments, power centers that are fickle times a 1000%. Now try to use тАЬcommon senseтАЭ to run he peopleтАЩs economy. Uh huh? Now try to get that government to be inspired by one of those divergent economists and what do you have, chaos, conflicting ideas, constantly changing conditions and interest rates, IOW, the business cycle.
So what to do? Lock in interest rates at a reasonable level and stop changing them. Low enough to inspire controlled investment but high enough to stop to stop speculation. Do not allow the government to spend for the sake of spending, especially to get the vote. John McCain was right when he tried to stop the escalating spending for elections. Vote for controlled spending, vote for controlled immigration, vote against welfare. Stop Keynesian spending, it just makes things worse. The people need to spend, invest, save not the damned government. Kill the Deep State, quit voting in people that promise you тАЬA chicken in every potтАЭ or today, тАЬA flat screen in every houseтАЭ. Use the vote to destroy Wokeism, the doctrine that says you deserve all the goodies, regardless of your willingness to earn them. In succinct terms, quit supporting the тАЬgimmeтАЭ, I am owed attitude that has allowed the Leftist 50% of this country to get away with economic murder.
There it is again, 50%. The people, the people run a civilization. Governments come and go, the people are responsible. This country has to stop the тАЬEasy StreetтАЭ mentality and get back to work. Or it will join the heritage of so many тАЬempiresтАЭ before it.
We are at odds in that Capitalism is a game where the goal is, essentially, disparity.
I would suggest that when migration is taken into account, that disparity is at an extreme. The product is a "dog eat dog" world, where a huge segment of the population is either not "wired", or not fortunate (lucky) enough to compete.
Will the private sector solve this problem? Can the government solve this problem? Do you see the steps that Trump is taking to address this problem?
Yes, capitalism is disparity, the human condition on earth is the same as any other species, based on competition for food and resources. The world is Dog-eat-dog and for humans that means the strongest, smartest, most gifted individuals have the advantage and will survive. Look to the world before the liberal response to the Great Depression. Poor people in the USA and around the world starved if they could not compete.
Private Sector - Let em starve. Wee will give charity for some.
Government - ha, the greatest con job in history. We will feed you as long as you side with us. humans just suck up to that. Until the people are ambitious enough, тАШthe poor will always be with usтАЭ.
Trump - also easy, he says it straight out. We will take care of the people of America first. Period. The rest of the world is going to hate us for a while because we have so screwed ourselves up, We do not have much left over for them.
If the scenarios that you present are anywhere close to reality, then shouldn't the citizens unite and support Trump, no matter what path he chooses to take us down?
Perhaps. If there was a Dollar collapse in the middle of a cold winter here in the US, by the end of one week most of the population would be starving, suffering from dehydration, and suffering from hypothermia. Not everyone would be troubled by these problems, though, as many would not survive one full week after the country descended into total and complete anarchy, with no currency of value, no means of exchange, no power/running water/gas heat/internet/cell phone service etc. Most people would be far safer if the US was hit by a dozen nukes than if there was a currency collapse. It would make living through the Plague/Black Death, or the Spanish Flu, or the Great Depression, all look like great times, by comparison. The book I read laid out, with great precision, how hour by our stores would have their shelves stripped bare and be burned, how anyone who had anything of value would be at grave risk of being robbed at gunpoint or murdered for their possessions, by desperate starving people in the days following the collapse, and worse. I have always feared a Dollar Collapse, more than any other disaster that could hit the USA. To me, the really scary thing is that it could happen, in a blind panic, at any moment, and if the US keeps steadily going bankrupt, it probably will happen someday.
Be the gray man, stay away from crowds,and keep yer yap shut about what you have stashed. Easier said then done.Thing is most tough guys don't want to be the first one in their crew to die.
" To me, the really scary thing is that it could happen, in a blind panic, at any moment, and if the US keeps steadily going bankrupt, it probably will happen someday. " ~ Thomas Madden
"China and now even Canada, are issuing debt denominated in US dollars. The older issues have also lost on the foreign exchange. Carney in Canada has just demonstrated his true lack of understanding of financial markets. He dumped US Treasuries but then issued Canadian debt denominated in dollars. As the C$ declines, he will lose on the return of the foreign exchange as well. Even the OECD report found that the costs of borrowing through dollar-denominated bonds had risen from around 4% in 2020 to more than 6% in 2024, rising to more than 8% for riskier, junk-rated economies nations."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/sovereign-debt-crisis-unfolding/
Which country do you think will fold first, Canada, or the US?
Is a bank run the cause of a currency collapse? If so, can some form of a CBDC be a solution? If so, would you be in favor of it?
Soylent Green. A classic dystopian film starring Charlton Heston.
Soylent Green should be viewed as an allegory about how we're supposed to be more aware of the injustices the ultra-wealthy have inflicted on everyone else. The film's ending could almost be viewed as saying, "Hey, bad things are out there, and you need to search for the truth."
What happens after that? It probably won't be as pretty as a bunch of flowers in a field, we'll say that much.
Read More: https://www.looper.com/383129/the-ending-of-soylent-green-explained/
No. Trump was useful in ending Biden/Harris regime. It is time to assess, and if Trump, in practice, is no better, or even worse, then it will be useful to end the Trump regime in 2026 or 2028.
Unfortunately, the trajectory is one of decline. I had presumed that with Trump this rate of decline would slow considerably, and he might, maybe, sow the seeds of a reversal. While "outing" USAID and other excesses are good points of light, they don't count for much if Trump bungles the "reindustrialization" with his mass-attack-on-ALL-fronts tariffs against everyone, or if "peace" President Trump wastes even more money on the military-industrial complex or fans the existing flames of hot wars into WW3 faster than Harris would have.
"He's not Biden or Harris or Hillary" is not good enough for me, if his results are just as bad.
SD
I agree with you here. Trump, like adm. 1 is hamstrung by the enormous power of the Deep State, they control just about everything in the federal government. If Trump believes in the Constitution, the actual power lies outside the executive branch. The national trajectory has been negative, under the control of the Deep State, for 70 years. I am very pro-Trump, as you know, as a counterforce to this trajectory, but I am afraid he may not be enough to reverse the wheels of government.
One thing is for sure, until the judiciary is put into its proper place re: the Constitution, Trump is pretty much locked up.
Three major issues that America is confronted with are (i) $36 trillion unsustainable national debt, (ii) the war in Ukraine, and (iii) the ME conflict.
Scared of the National Debt? You Should Be.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/scared-of-the-national-debt-you-should-be/
The Business Cycle & National Debt
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/the-business-cycle-national-debt/
Sovereign Debt Crisis Unfolding
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/sovereign-debt-crisis-unfolding/
Unless dealt with, it is my impression that the national debt issue by itself will lead US (and much of the world) to the point that Thomas Madden describes.
Armstrong contends that the business cycle is inevitable, and civilization needs to learn to live with it.
So, you want to switch horses at this point in time (basically, not support Trump, and start promoting another solution for 2026 or 2028).
I would suggest that the world does not have the luxury of that much time, and I would encourage you (and others) to consider solutions that might mitigate the Sovereign Debt Crisis, and then consider how Trump's actions might be addressing the problems, realizing that solutions, because of factors beyond his control, just amount to a grand experiment.
First, consider that he is trying to reduce the number of factors that are beyond his control. A big one would be if he had a united world population to support his grand experiment. In this regard, like JHK, he is trying to inform the population about the immoral activity of the obstructionists, and gaining the support of the moral segment of the population to back his endeavor to deal with the various entities/factions (both nationally, and internationally).
Viewing a variety of perspectives, my assessment is that it is the Globalists who will be responsible for WWIII should it come to that, and I view a variety of paths whereby Trump can be a key player in achieving world peace.
And, as far as Trump bungling the "reindustrialization" with his mass-attack-on-ALL-fronts tariffs against everyone, what happens if he ends up uniting a majority of the countries of the world, and with this group, counters the obstructionists? Many leaders throughout the world are still married to the 2030 Agenda, and we see with individuals like Larry Fink, they are not all complete idiots. Once they come to the realization that the 2030 Agenda has failed, then perhaps they will be open to entertaining other solutions (success for one will entail success for all).
Then, when unity is achieved, the needs of the general population will need to be attended to, and assuming that there will be die-hard globalists who intend to obstruct Trumps agenda in this regard, this is where I see a need for people like Miriam Adelson, Elon Musk, and other big money people to create business activity to mitigate the devaluation and avoid the nightmare scenario that default would bring. I also foresee a need for mega projects, as well as the need for a new format for life.
As far as the wars, do you not see "good points of light" in that trouble makers are being targeted? Is the individual that prompted the protest against Hamas a plant? Doesn't the support that he has generated imply that Hamas is not the only solution? Are the Nazis in Ukraine the good guys, or the troublemakers?
I view a perspective whereby Trump is addressing the issues in a logical manner, and am encouraged by his achievements to this point, realizing that only time will tell if his grand experiment will be a success. But, at this point in time, I also see no other good option.
IAN
Disagree. The major issue of the USA is how its people view themselves. They have been told by their government for 70 yeras that you are too stupid to run yourselves, just let us take care of you. The reaction has been very human. 50% of this country sign up to letting the government run their lives.
That is very expensive, $36 trillion to be exact. Another one to drop in is the $50 or so trillion individual debt that Joe Average faces today. The country has to face the idea that none of it is going to be re-paid and what does that mean?
In the meantime, how the heck do we get 50% of the country to take on the responsibility for their own lives? Until that happens, everything else is minor. Remember that that debt is largely there because of that 50%' s irresponsibility.
John, it is quite obvious that you didn't read any of the reference material.
Read them again. Disagree may have been too strong a word.
My point is that the formation of national or global debt is still the desire of governments to тАЬtake care of the peopleтАЭ. Why? To gain political advantage.
Think about what causes the debt. Why are the government nebbishes always trying to tax and spend? To get our vote, to get the majority of the votes to maintain their power. Put those interest rates down, cut those taxes, encourage unwarranted spending and investment, for what? To create more money, more spending, etc.etc. What causes downturns? When the credit suppliers run out of real money and start to create new money with no backing. Add on that the government has probably added on higher interest rates and you get the public saying тАЬNo MasтАЭ, I cannot afford this any more. The slide begins!
Keynes, at this point says, okay government, spend more, keep those people working, flood the money market, MAKE THINGS WORSE. It just extends the up curve even longer and makes the resultant collapse larger and longer. The Great Depression had the government increase spending per Keynes, and the really main lesson was lost as the spending made things worse, the height of unemployment was 1936. The end of the Depression happened because of two factors, we made тАЬbulletsтАЭ, disposables, war material, and second, we killed off a portion of the unemployed. Returning veterans had no fear, and consumer spent like crazy, keeping demand for investment high. I was a kid then and remember interest rates in low single digits. Cars were built to last about 50000 miles, and trading in after 2 years was common. New products as the result of investments came fast and furious. The Fifties, good times.
Anyhow, back to the subject at hand. The business cycle is a product of the reaction of people to spending and interest rates, period. If people see a market or even a potential market they invest and spend, That is Supply Side economics. If the markets succeed they keep spending and investing, to the point of speculation. There is the rub, speculation, spending at high risk. Then the Fed raises interest rates, budgets collapse and the spending slows rapidly. Then the long term debts start coming due and the collapse start. The CDOs that banks invented to increase speculation in 2008, collapsed the banks as the people had no way to pay the increased ARM mortgages that comprised the CDOs. Michael Burrey predicted this collapse (see The Big Short), and even predicted the day it would happen. I was on vacation as I watched the Market collapse. Get it? Predictable by someone who used common sense.
Well, as I said, what is the common denominator? People, all the people. The articles say that the business cycle is behind all the shenanigans and it is not understood very well. Well , no kidding. Human behavior is just plain crazy. A joke I heard long ago, тАЬLine up a hundred economists on a straight line. They will all be pointing in a different direction.тАЭ For every human with an opinion, there will be another with the opposite opinion. Humans are fickle, period. No amplify that trait by creating governments, power centers that are fickle times a 1000%. Now try to use тАЬcommon senseтАЭ to run he peopleтАЩs economy. Uh huh? Now try to get that government to be inspired by one of those divergent economists and what do you have, chaos, conflicting ideas, constantly changing conditions and interest rates, IOW, the business cycle.
So what to do? Lock in interest rates at a reasonable level and stop changing them. Low enough to inspire controlled investment but high enough to stop to stop speculation. Do not allow the government to spend for the sake of spending, especially to get the vote. John McCain was right when he tried to stop the escalating spending for elections. Vote for controlled spending, vote for controlled immigration, vote against welfare. Stop Keynesian spending, it just makes things worse. The people need to spend, invest, save not the damned government. Kill the Deep State, quit voting in people that promise you тАЬA chicken in every potтАЭ or today, тАЬA flat screen in every houseтАЭ. Use the vote to destroy Wokeism, the doctrine that says you deserve all the goodies, regardless of your willingness to earn them. In succinct terms, quit supporting the тАЬgimmeтАЭ, I am owed attitude that has allowed the Leftist 50% of this country to get away with economic murder.
There it is again, 50%. The people, the people run a civilization. Governments come and go, the people are responsible. This country has to stop the тАЬEasy StreetтАЭ mentality and get back to work. Or it will join the heritage of so many тАЬempiresтАЭ before it.
We are at odds in that Capitalism is a game where the goal is, essentially, disparity.
I would suggest that when migration is taken into account, that disparity is at an extreme. The product is a "dog eat dog" world, where a huge segment of the population is either not "wired", or not fortunate (lucky) enough to compete.
Will the private sector solve this problem? Can the government solve this problem? Do you see the steps that Trump is taking to address this problem?
Oho. Easy answers.
Yes, capitalism is disparity, the human condition on earth is the same as any other species, based on competition for food and resources. The world is Dog-eat-dog and for humans that means the strongest, smartest, most gifted individuals have the advantage and will survive. Look to the world before the liberal response to the Great Depression. Poor people in the USA and around the world starved if they could not compete.
Private Sector - Let em starve. Wee will give charity for some.
Government - ha, the greatest con job in history. We will feed you as long as you side with us. humans just suck up to that. Until the people are ambitious enough, тАШthe poor will always be with usтАЭ.
Trump - also easy, he says it straight out. We will take care of the people of America first. Period. The rest of the world is going to hate us for a while because we have so screwed ourselves up, We do not have much left over for them.
Sorry about the tome. Your challenge inspired me.
Gilbert Doctorow's perspectives on all the major issues:
**
Transcript of тАШJudging FreedomтАЩ edition of 3 April
**
Transcript of тАШJudging Freedom,тАЩ 9 April edition
**
Trump and tariffs
┬йGilbert Doctorow, 2025
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/page/2/
Curious reasoning.