I know it's virtually impossible to ignore the US political scene right now, but Jim it's been a while since you updated us on the global energy situation. Trump is long on tariffs, surely there will be collapse in the near future for the US with unpayable debt and far less "liquid gold" underground than Trump gleefully references at eve…
I know it's virtually impossible to ignore the US political scene right now, but Jim it's been a while since you updated us on the global energy situation. Trump is long on tariffs, surely there will be collapse in the near future for the US with unpayable debt and far less "liquid gold" underground than Trump gleefully references at every opportunity. Well, when he's not recounting tales of Elon's rocket landing against the gantry. Moonshots, Martian colonisation, self piloting EVs, Dept of Government Efficiency CBDC coin, BRICS gold backed competing currencies, there's so much more going on.
A lot can go wrong... it sure can! And that was before the Middle East, before Israel starting bombing Iranians Embassies, assassinating people in Iran, and bombing Iran.
Do Israel's actions make it less likely for things to go wrong? Or more?
Does anyone have a confirmed source for the rumour that Netanyahu contacted the Biden administration before the election to say "If I even think you've cheated to retain power, I will take out Iranian oil production and leave the US dark." It could be a reason they refrained from such outrageous cheating - at least in the Presidential race.
As is his opponents in Tehran, responsible for all of the terrorist activity for thirty years, including the Taliban, and ISIS. Iran is the entity that wants the USA to be “in the Dark”, not Israel. Iran wants control of the Middle East, not Israel. Saudi Arabia is afraid of Iran, not Israel.
Iran was our good buddy (and the UK’s) prior to 1953 when Iran decided to nationalize their oil profits and the CIA couped Mossedegh over it installing the Shah and his bloody henchmen.
Trump killing Solemani didn’t help us get along better with Iran. Trump is now hated in Iran.
Abby, you're a good and decent person, but Mossedegh was a tyrant confiscating the entire country and the Shah was the best thing the Mideast has seen since bad guy Mohammed was born (plus, Savak was neither bloody, nor savage.) We're repeating propaganda we've been fed with this; I've seen it repeated a thousand times.
Let me clarify as to the Shah's "mistake" that led to his ouster at the hands of Oil Wars Bush and the MI6.
What the Shah proposed was an Muslim trading bloc, with one key innovation: it would be of NON-Arab nations. Non-Arab Muslims outnumbered Arab Muslims almost 3 to 1 at the time. 6 nations were proposed to be the founding members, such as Malaysia, (western) India, Madagascar, Iran, and 2 more.
Israel's role in the Mideast is as a stake or anchor in oil country; oil is much more important than Zionism in this regard, Zionism is just PR, really. Israel's relation to the Gulf oil states is the most important factor.
These politics go back to the Great Game that sparked after oil was first discovered in coastal Iran in 1906, two years after Mackinder's thesis that land rail would connect the northern oceans with the southern oceans, and west Eurasia with the East, obviating the naval powers' huge advantage in global trade.
The European Powers were already in heavy competition in rail, just as we fight wars over pipelines. Churchill, as Admiral of the British Navy, decided to start converting ships from coal steam to oil boilers, and the race was on.
Israel now is trying to transform itself into a key gateway of China's Belt-Road Initiative, the New Silk Road. The Ukraine (for 300 years, as Khazaria) was the gateway of the northern leg, Persia the gateway of the southern leg, since Roman times.
At the time, the the US petrodollar had just been formed.
The Shah was seeking to restore Persia to her historic legacy as hegemon of the Mideast before Islam's rise. The Semitics would bear no challenge to their supremacy, so the CIA sent in an MI6 British-Indian agent they'd been keeping on ice in a luxury villa in Paris.
That agent's name was Khomeini, the Ayatollah, who exploited the same mullahs who had brought down the dictator Mossadegh with a great deal of Agency help. (Mossadegh wasn't playing ball with Anglo-Iranian Oil, and was outright confiscating his political enemies' assets.) Khomeini had been born in Iran, but he wasn't Persian.
It was a color revolution to counter a previous color revolution; the Tudeh socialist student movement had been set up as the Ayatollah's fall guy; it was the Tudeh students who took the American embassy hostage at the urging of a double agent, Achmedinijad, future President of Iran.
The various religious sentiments of Shia, Sunni, Zionist. and Mizrahi are certainly at play, but the heart of the matter is control of the energy trade and routes, and always has been.
Bibi sees the future of Israel in the Mizrahi, the legacy Jews who never left the Mideast, even after Rome sacked Jerusalem. They are having children while the Ashkenazim are not, since those are busy with Pride celebrations instead.
Also, for Khazaria fans, there was an exodus to the Ukraine after 70 and 135 AD, but it turns out not to be nearly as large as thought; only a few thousand elites at most, the very elites that Rome overthrew. This is what the DNA evidence shows, that the Khazarian elite did indeed originate in the Middle East; they merged a only small amount with Turkic Mongols who had arrived in 100 BC, two centuries before they did, both cultures being of like mind. The older Magyar population was still the majority at the time.
Khazaria's "conversion" was more a recognition of the high Hebrew birthrate, mirroring today's Muslim birthrate in Europe; unnoticed is the fact that said "conversion" occured at the same time Judeo-Arabian (Semitic) Islam was taking over Persian culture and its extensive territories. Judaism was in its evangelistic phase, although, also unrecognized, is that its branches have undergone changes of identity more than once.
(Mohammed, a minor figure whose role was magnified later, was himself from a family half-Arab, half-Jewish. Illiterate, he remembered only some of the big names from the Old Testament, weaving wildly popular tall tales that would later be haphazardly piled up into the Koran.)
How would you know that oil/gas are running out? Yet they keep finding more.
Maybe it is abiogenic. Anything found below 15000 ft depth is definitely not organic and as the technology improves we find new sources below that depth. How else to explain?
That only reason to explain that it will take a long time to replace fossil is over regulation. It's not that complicated.
The closer you get to the mantle the hotter it gets. Oil is the product of carbon-hydrogen chains that form only at certain temperatures. Too hot and it turns into natural gas as its structures breaks down into small carbon chains and vaporizes. Any closer to the mantle and the chains break down totally. If there was carbon present in the mantle and core, would we have heard of it? Right now, the only entity that assembles carbon into complex chains such as proteins and rings such as sugars if life itself.
Also, the depletion of easy to get oil makes us need to use much more expensive methods of getting it. When I was a teen, gasoline was 18 cents a gallon. It is now 3-5 dollars a gallon. I wonder why? As JHK has noted, fracking and deep sea rigs cost millions. When the first oil well, (Drake) was drilled, he stuck a pole into the ground to get it. Easy access to oil is just about over, the soda straws are drying up.
Abiotic oil would would need carbon chain assembly as it comes out of the mantle as free carbon, and its assembly would require hydrogenation also. If that was possible, why wouldn’t we just assemble chains here, now. Again, life is the only entity that assembles complex carbon structures.
It is abiotic, but the refill rate is unfortunately the sticking point. Excruciatingly slow, due to its geologic nature. We still have used up the easy-to-reach oil, and squander the fumes (natgas).
Also, much of it is not admitted to, to cause scarcity; this must be the same reason we don't build new refineries for differing grades, as refineries are a very mature technology. Once the US Geologic Service found out the desert states of the Western US are floating on a sea of oil, they shut down nearly all oil surveying. The USGS claims it's unnecessary because, why, there's nothing there to survey.
You will have to prove abiotic as no data supports it. How come the reservoirs around the world do not just fill back up, making more expansive, expensive, and dangerous oil exploration necessary?
I know it's virtually impossible to ignore the US political scene right now, but Jim it's been a while since you updated us on the global energy situation. Trump is long on tariffs, surely there will be collapse in the near future for the US with unpayable debt and far less "liquid gold" underground than Trump gleefully references at every opportunity. Well, when he's not recounting tales of Elon's rocket landing against the gantry. Moonshots, Martian colonisation, self piloting EVs, Dept of Government Efficiency CBDC coin, BRICS gold backed competing currencies, there's so much more going on.
You're right -- a lot to be concerned about in the energy / finance nexus. A lot can go wrong. I'll get around to covering it.
Gail Tverberg regularly does her best also.
Blog = Our Finite World.
A lot can go wrong... it sure can! And that was before the Middle East, before Israel starting bombing Iranians Embassies, assassinating people in Iran, and bombing Iran.
Do Israel's actions make it less likely for things to go wrong? Or more?
Does anyone have a confirmed source for the rumour that Netanyahu contacted the Biden administration before the election to say "If I even think you've cheated to retain power, I will take out Iranian oil production and leave the US dark." It could be a reason they refrained from such outrageous cheating - at least in the Presidential race.
As is his opponents in Tehran, responsible for all of the terrorist activity for thirty years, including the Taliban, and ISIS. Iran is the entity that wants the USA to be “in the Dark”, not Israel. Iran wants control of the Middle East, not Israel. Saudi Arabia is afraid of Iran, not Israel.
Israel is our ally,, not Iran.
Iran was our good buddy (and the UK’s) prior to 1953 when Iran decided to nationalize their oil profits and the CIA couped Mossedegh over it installing the Shah and his bloody henchmen.
Trump killing Solemani didn’t help us get along better with Iran. Trump is now hated in Iran.
Abby, you're a good and decent person, but Mossedegh was a tyrant confiscating the entire country and the Shah was the best thing the Mideast has seen since bad guy Mohammed was born (plus, Savak was neither bloody, nor savage.) We're repeating propaganda we've been fed with this; I've seen it repeated a thousand times.
Let me clarify as to the Shah's "mistake" that led to his ouster at the hands of Oil Wars Bush and the MI6.
What the Shah proposed was an Muslim trading bloc, with one key innovation: it would be of NON-Arab nations. Non-Arab Muslims outnumbered Arab Muslims almost 3 to 1 at the time. 6 nations were proposed to be the founding members, such as Malaysia, (western) India, Madagascar, Iran, and 2 more.
Israel's role in the Mideast is as a stake or anchor in oil country; oil is much more important than Zionism in this regard, Zionism is just PR, really. Israel's relation to the Gulf oil states is the most important factor.
These politics go back to the Great Game that sparked after oil was first discovered in coastal Iran in 1906, two years after Mackinder's thesis that land rail would connect the northern oceans with the southern oceans, and west Eurasia with the East, obviating the naval powers' huge advantage in global trade.
The European Powers were already in heavy competition in rail, just as we fight wars over pipelines. Churchill, as Admiral of the British Navy, decided to start converting ships from coal steam to oil boilers, and the race was on.
Israel now is trying to transform itself into a key gateway of China's Belt-Road Initiative, the New Silk Road. The Ukraine (for 300 years, as Khazaria) was the gateway of the northern leg, Persia the gateway of the southern leg, since Roman times.
At the time, the the US petrodollar had just been formed.
The Shah was seeking to restore Persia to her historic legacy as hegemon of the Mideast before Islam's rise. The Semitics would bear no challenge to their supremacy, so the CIA sent in an MI6 British-Indian agent they'd been keeping on ice in a luxury villa in Paris.
That agent's name was Khomeini, the Ayatollah, who exploited the same mullahs who had brought down the dictator Mossadegh with a great deal of Agency help. (Mossadegh wasn't playing ball with Anglo-Iranian Oil, and was outright confiscating his political enemies' assets.) Khomeini had been born in Iran, but he wasn't Persian.
It was a color revolution to counter a previous color revolution; the Tudeh socialist student movement had been set up as the Ayatollah's fall guy; it was the Tudeh students who took the American embassy hostage at the urging of a double agent, Achmedinijad, future President of Iran.
The various religious sentiments of Shia, Sunni, Zionist. and Mizrahi are certainly at play, but the heart of the matter is control of the energy trade and routes, and always has been.
So you admit that he's a murderous lunatic? If so, good.
As is his counterparts in Iran, as well as the nice folks in the MIC.
You just do not get it, Bibi is just a typical world leader. All of whom do not care about the lives of their people.
Bibi sees the future of Israel in the Mizrahi, the legacy Jews who never left the Mideast, even after Rome sacked Jerusalem. They are having children while the Ashkenazim are not, since those are busy with Pride celebrations instead.
Also, for Khazaria fans, there was an exodus to the Ukraine after 70 and 135 AD, but it turns out not to be nearly as large as thought; only a few thousand elites at most, the very elites that Rome overthrew. This is what the DNA evidence shows, that the Khazarian elite did indeed originate in the Middle East; they merged a only small amount with Turkic Mongols who had arrived in 100 BC, two centuries before they did, both cultures being of like mind. The older Magyar population was still the majority at the time.
Khazaria's "conversion" was more a recognition of the high Hebrew birthrate, mirroring today's Muslim birthrate in Europe; unnoticed is the fact that said "conversion" occured at the same time Judeo-Arabian (Semitic) Islam was taking over Persian culture and its extensive territories. Judaism was in its evangelistic phase, although, also unrecognized, is that its branches have undergone changes of identity more than once.
(Mohammed, a minor figure whose role was magnified later, was himself from a family half-Arab, half-Jewish. Illiterate, he remembered only some of the big names from the Old Testament, weaving wildly popular tall tales that would later be haphazardly piled up into the Koran.)
Impressive post.
How would you know that oil/gas are running out? Yet they keep finding more.
Maybe it is abiogenic. Anything found below 15000 ft depth is definitely not organic and as the technology improves we find new sources below that depth. How else to explain?
That only reason to explain that it will take a long time to replace fossil is over regulation. It's not that complicated.
The closer you get to the mantle the hotter it gets. Oil is the product of carbon-hydrogen chains that form only at certain temperatures. Too hot and it turns into natural gas as its structures breaks down into small carbon chains and vaporizes. Any closer to the mantle and the chains break down totally. If there was carbon present in the mantle and core, would we have heard of it? Right now, the only entity that assembles carbon into complex chains such as proteins and rings such as sugars if life itself.
Also, the depletion of easy to get oil makes us need to use much more expensive methods of getting it. When I was a teen, gasoline was 18 cents a gallon. It is now 3-5 dollars a gallon. I wonder why? As JHK has noted, fracking and deep sea rigs cost millions. When the first oil well, (Drake) was drilled, he stuck a pole into the ground to get it. Easy access to oil is just about over, the soda straws are drying up.
Abiotic oil would would need carbon chain assembly as it comes out of the mantle as free carbon, and its assembly would require hydrogenation also. If that was possible, why wouldn’t we just assemble chains here, now. Again, life is the only entity that assembles complex carbon structures.
Oil is a necessary product for modern civilization, limited resources should be used for priority purposes and bridging strategies.
This relationship is not well understood.
It is abiotic, but the refill rate is unfortunately the sticking point. Excruciatingly slow, due to its geologic nature. We still have used up the easy-to-reach oil, and squander the fumes (natgas).
Also, much of it is not admitted to, to cause scarcity; this must be the same reason we don't build new refineries for differing grades, as refineries are a very mature technology. Once the US Geologic Service found out the desert states of the Western US are floating on a sea of oil, they shut down nearly all oil surveying. The USGS claims it's unnecessary because, why, there's nothing there to survey.
You will have to prove abiotic as no data supports it. How come the reservoirs around the world do not just fill back up, making more expansive, expensive, and dangerous oil exploration necessary?