The Clusterfuck Nation Chronicle

Commentary on the Flux of Events

A correspondent writes interestingly (his views, not necessarily mine):

"It is doubtful that the rest of the world will passively stand by and watch the gas station holdup planned for February / March in Iraq. I fully expect oil shock repercussions and wobbly derivatives crashing in response to the global economy swooning. Europe is distancing itself from America and Japan is drifting closer to China. The mess in Iraq will benefit China's energy needs enormously. China has emerged as an alternative market for Arab oil. Soon, a Chinese nuclear umbrella will shield Moslem oil from future gas station holdup attempts. America will have to limit itself to oil imports from Nigeria, Venezuela and Colombia, all unstable sources. A year from now I expect gasoline to fetch four-to-five dollars a gallon [in the US].

"The act of Moslems cozying up to China will set the US and China on a collision course. With US consumer spending collapsing and the dollar cheapening and US imports from China waning as a result, we have a seismic shift in the making. China now has a priceless asset: modern manufacturing know-how, infrastructure, and a huge pool of competent workers. Given a river of oil and a growing partnership with Japan, a revival of the East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere looms large -- and the Pacific ceases to be an American lake. A global economic depression also looms large. Germany "snapped out" of the depression in 1933 by opting out of the world economy. What if China / Japan opt out of the global economy also? Japan could afford the 'luxury' of a prolonged slump, but China cannot. When China faces the choice of internal unrest or ceasing to be tied to the global economy, China will opt for autarky. So we have the Muslim nations and China in a mutual marriage of convenience with Japan seeing a way out of depression by joining the club

"Iraq's oil infrastructure going up in smoke combined with an Arab oil embargo [against the US] will yield a 'Gerald Ford' interim administration by Labor Day 2003. A skittish US overclass will suddenly get the vapors and choose to dump the 'W' agenda in a hurry, since it is headed for even bigger train wrecks which are even less affordable.

On a completely different subject. . . . Did any of you catch the marvelous Rolling Stones live concert from Madison Square Garden on HBO Saturday night? They were in great condition and the show was technically impeccable. All the Stones together must weigh less than the average single visitor to Walt Disney World.
Keith Richards summed things up beautifully speaking into the microphone to the audience halfway through the show when he said, "It's great to be here; it's great to be anywhere."