The Clusterfuck Nation Chronicle
Commentary on the Flux of Events
Watching the eminentissimos on the Sunday morning TV news analysis shows I was struck by their absolute inability to offer a coherent idea of what the US can actually do about the whirlwind of war in Israel. For instance, Sandy Berger and Zbigniew Brzezinski (NSC chiefs under Clinton and Carter) on Sam Donaldson's ABC panel confounded the plastic-haired-one's entreaties to provide some inkling of a way to mediate or resolve the conflict. It's hard not to conclude that there is not much the US can do to even bring about a temporary ceasefire.
What well-intentioned bystanders might wish for the region is beside the point of what is actually liable to happen. The other states in the region are growing extremely restive. Iraq is now loudly promoting the idea of a pan-Islamic oil boycott against nations that support Israel (who could that be?). The US state department dismisses Saddam's statements as "ramblings," but are they whistling past the graveyard? The Saudis say that an oil boycott is "out of the question," but the Saudis do not represent all Arabs; they are but a ruling clan among many other clans, not to mention the minions of Osama bin Laden, who would be the next caliph of Riyadh if he could manage it. The unwillingness of the Saudis to use the oil weapon, may be an invitation to topple their regime and replace it with one that would gladly play the oil card.
Beyond the roar of international opprobrium aimed at Prime Minister Sharon, it is hard to imagine what else Israel would do -- with suicidal bomber maniacs being launched against its civilian population like so many human missiles by a culture that glorifies death. I didn't vote for guy, but I respect President Bush's unwillingness to join the international pretense that both sides are behaving equally badly. To do otherwise would be to undermine America's own behavior in the "war against terrorism." What are suicide bombers if not terrorists? What were the skyjackers of 9/11 if not suicide bombers?
Will Yasser Arafat take the opportunity he has been given to save his skin? I would be surprised if he does not. Morocco has been persuaded to offer him a sanctuary. Morocco is about as far away from Israel as Spokane is from Wall Street. Arafat is holed up at the moment with about 70 supporters, many of whom are top terrorists wanted by Israel. They would not be allowed to accompany the Chairman into exile. The situation at the Ramallah compound is extremely delicate because only Arafat's presence prevents the Israelis from taking them all into custody. Will they go down Alamo-style?
Meanwhile, unnoticed by the American public is a badly distorted economy that is not "recovering" from the extreme credit follies of recent years, only moving the bubble from the Nasdaq to the housing market, fueled by ridiculous interest rates and reckless mortgage creation by government supported entities (GSEs) Fanne Mae and Freddie Mac. When the inflation of house prices crests and turns down, and over-leveraged owners of overpriced houses rush to sell in a collapsing market, we'll see an incredible fiesta of family financial ruin. The question to ask right now is will these conditions coincide (or be brought about) by rapidly rising oil prices or an outright Arab export boycott? The oil markets are already anticipating trouble. Read the numbers. We also know that every time oil prices rise, the US economy slips back into trouble-- since our economy is mainly about driving, long-distance transport of goods, and suburban real estate development. This is the heart of the clusterfuck argument: if oil markets wobble even moderately, the US economy could crash and burn.
Add a red-hot war in the Mideast and we could find ourselves in a permanent emergency.