The Clusterfuck Nation Chronicle

Commentary on the Flux of Events

Sunday's New York Times featured a front-page story on our preparations for some eventual big operation in Iraq (i.e. a war) which included this interesting remark by R. Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the President's Council of Economic advisors. He said a surge in oil prices caused by conflict in the Middle East and Iraq would not by itself have a large effect on the US Economy. We'd get over it rapidly, Hubbard said. No problemo. What planet is he living on?

The national imagination is currently gripped by delusions regarding oil and its relation to American reality. Another one that emanates from government circles (i.e., from persons who ought to know better) is that oil in general is no longer so important to the US economy. As if we could keep on living the way we do with any less of it than we currently get (at bargain prices). Tell that to the millions of people around the nation who are commuting around the beltways and Edge Cities. Tell it to the airline industry or the companies who manufacture things with plastic components. Tell it to the denizens of Dallas later this summer when they get another fortnight of 100-plus-degree weather. Tell it to agribusiness in the Central Valley of California. Tell it to the division of WalMart that runs their warehouse-on-wheels, a system in which merchandise is constantly in motion in trucks out on the interstate highways (coming to final rest only in the customer's garage). Tell it to the domestic tourism industry. Tell it to the production builders of far-flung suburban housing developments. . . .

Another delusion is that Russia and its former satellites in Central Asia are serenely standing by to become our new primary source of imported oil in case Arabia is forcibly de-Saudified (or in case saboteurs mess with the oil infrastructure there). It will be easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for any American entity to build and/or protect pipelines across any part of Central Asia. Anyway, we will discover -- probably the hard way -- that oil-starved China has first dibs on that supply, which is right next door to them. Does the Chinese military elite have a scenario for a contest with the US over this region? I don't think the generals are playing Mah Jong in their conference rooms. How many divisions might the US send to Afghanistan to maintain hegemony over pipelines there? Did I hear anyone say "zero?"

Anyway, US officials assure us, there's plenty of oil in South America, where the Monroe Doctrine is still in effect. That's reassuring. With over 300 incidents in recent years of Columbian insurgents breaking US-owned pipelines, and with Hugo Chavez back in the Venezuela driver's seat after the world's record shortest coup-de-etat (to which the US gave at least moral support).

By the way, I'm not against the idea that the world has to find and neutralize Mr. Saddam Hussein's arsenal of WMDs. But if we're serious about undertaking this adventure, the American people ought to be prepared for real consequences in regard to lifestyle. Sooner or later an American president is going to have to tell the truth: the cheap oil fiesta is ending and get ready for different living arrangements. The world does not owe us a drive-in utopia. George W. Bush appears unaware of these complications. When the hammer falls, he might find himself being the nail.

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I was surprised that anyone was greatly surprised by the victory of rightest Jean-Marie LePen in the French national runnoff for the coming presidential election. Guess what -- Europe is a lot closer to the Middle East than America is. From this nervous vantage they are watching an historic meltdown of order in that part of the world and wondering how many millions of refugees will try to pour into their nations (bringing bad attitudes and belligerant agendas with them). LePen may be a neo-fascist boob, but his victory shows, among other things, how inept the political center has been as guardians of national culture. Living in America, where for years the center has promoted everything but E Pluribus Unim, you wouldn't know that the concept of a national common culture had any value. (The disdain for common culture originally emanated from the left as multiculturalism, but has been co-opted now even by Mr. Bush, who wants to suspend the immigration laws for Mexicans here illegally in order to pander for an increasingly pivotal Hispanic vote.) The French apparently remember the situation ten years ago when Algerian extremists went on a rampage planting bombs in subway stations all around Paris. That was their September 11th -- except it went on for much longer than one day -- and they're not eager to import a new generation of bombers. The message therefore is an urgent one to the European center: get serious about defending your nations against the coming anarchy (or extremists will volunteer to do the job).