NOTE: CTP-ISW will produce the update Monday through Friday beginning February 20, 2025, due to the decrease in military activity in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and the defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah. We will resume daily, seven-day coverage if circumstances change. CTP-ISW will notify our readers when we res…
NOTE: CTP-ISW will produce the update Monday through Friday beginning February 20, 2025, due to the decrease in military activity in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and the defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah. We will resume daily, seven-day coverage if circumstances change. CTP-ISW will notify our readers when we resume seven-day coverage. CTP-ISW will continue to produce daily Syria maps. We will publish weekend Syria maps on Mondays. We will cover and assess Axis of Resistance activities in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon at a less granular level moving forward. We will continue to publish analysis on other key US interests in the region, such as the defeat of ISIS and Syrian stability. We will also continue to adjust our Middle Eastern coverage and make those adjustments clear in response to regional dynamics and priorities, just as we did immediately after Hamas' October 7 attack into Israel and the fall of the Assad Regime.
Key Takeaways:
Iranian Rhetoric: Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari—adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander—threatened to attack "all [US] bases and ships in the region" during a speech at the Great Prophet 19 military exercise on February 20.
Hayat Tahrir al Sham and Syrian Democratic Forces Negotiations: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazloum Abdi said that he and Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara agreed on “general principles” but still disagree on “practical details,” which likely refers to the integration of the SDF into the Syrian army.
Syrian Constitution: The Syrian Preparatory Committee continued “dialogue sessions” for Raqqa, Hasakah, and Rif Dimashq provinces in Damascus on February 21.
Iraqi Politics: The United States reportedly threatened to sanction the Iraqi federal government if it prevents the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from resuming oil exports.
Syria
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazloum Abdi said that he and Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara agreed on “general principles” but still disagreed on “practical details,” which likely refers to the integration of the SDF into the Syrian army.[1] Abdi told The Guardian on February 21 that he and Shara agreed to keep Syria unified during the leaders’ last meeting in early January.[2] Abdi said that he and Shara still disagree on the “practical details,” including “the tools for us to work together” and the “timeline.”[3] Abdi is likely referring to the specific mechanisms for SDF integration into the Syrian army. An SDF commander said on February 18 that the SDF and the governing body in northeast Syria agreed to merge their forces into the Syrian Defense Ministry.[4] Abdi has not yet publicly confirmed such an agreement. Abdi’s demand that the SDF integrate as a “bloc” was one of the main sticking points of negotiations in the past two months, and it is unclear if either side has moderated their demands on this issue. Abdi also told The Guardian that the “Turkish intervention” was hurting negotiations.[5] CTP-ISW has previously noted that Abdi is unlikely to give up the SDF‘s ability to defend Kurdish areas against active attacks by Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).[6]
Turkish aircraft struck the SDF along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River on February 21. Turkish aircraft struck SDF positions east of Jarabulus.[7] Turkey has repeatedly struck SDF positions across the Euphrates River from Jarabulus since February 12.[8]
Turkey continued to strike SDF positions near Qara Qozak Bridge on February 21. Turkish aircraft struck several SDF positions near Sarrin, likely to isolate SDF units at the bridgehead west of the Qara Qozak Bridge.[9]
Anti-SDF media claimed that Turkish drones struck an SDF checkpoint near al Kasrat, south of Raqqa, on February 21.[10]
The Turkish Defense Ministry announced on February 21 that it killed 8 “PKK” fighters in northwestern Syria.[11] Turkey routinely conducts strikes targeting the "PKK” in northern Iraq and Syria, but it commonly conflates the PKK and the SDF.
Iran Update, February 21, 2025
NOTE: CTP-ISW will produce the update Monday through Friday beginning February 20, 2025, due to the decrease in military activity in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon and the defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah. We will resume daily, seven-day coverage if circumstances change. CTP-ISW will notify our readers when we resume seven-day coverage. CTP-ISW will continue to produce daily Syria maps. We will publish weekend Syria maps on Mondays. We will cover and assess Axis of Resistance activities in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon at a less granular level moving forward. We will continue to publish analysis on other key US interests in the region, such as the defeat of ISIS and Syrian stability. We will also continue to adjust our Middle Eastern coverage and make those adjustments clear in response to regional dynamics and priorities, just as we did immediately after Hamas' October 7 attack into Israel and the fall of the Assad Regime.
Key Takeaways:
Iranian Rhetoric: Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari—adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander—threatened to attack "all [US] bases and ships in the region" during a speech at the Great Prophet 19 military exercise on February 20.
Hayat Tahrir al Sham and Syrian Democratic Forces Negotiations: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazloum Abdi said that he and Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara agreed on “general principles” but still disagree on “practical details,” which likely refers to the integration of the SDF into the Syrian army.
Syrian Constitution: The Syrian Preparatory Committee continued “dialogue sessions” for Raqqa, Hasakah, and Rif Dimashq provinces in Damascus on February 21.
Iraqi Politics: The United States reportedly threatened to sanction the Iraqi federal government if it prevents the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from resuming oil exports.
Syria
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazloum Abdi said that he and Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara agreed on “general principles” but still disagreed on “practical details,” which likely refers to the integration of the SDF into the Syrian army.[1] Abdi told The Guardian on February 21 that he and Shara agreed to keep Syria unified during the leaders’ last meeting in early January.[2] Abdi said that he and Shara still disagree on the “practical details,” including “the tools for us to work together” and the “timeline.”[3] Abdi is likely referring to the specific mechanisms for SDF integration into the Syrian army. An SDF commander said on February 18 that the SDF and the governing body in northeast Syria agreed to merge their forces into the Syrian Defense Ministry.[4] Abdi has not yet publicly confirmed such an agreement. Abdi’s demand that the SDF integrate as a “bloc” was one of the main sticking points of negotiations in the past two months, and it is unclear if either side has moderated their demands on this issue. Abdi also told The Guardian that the “Turkish intervention” was hurting negotiations.[5] CTP-ISW has previously noted that Abdi is unlikely to give up the SDF‘s ability to defend Kurdish areas against active attacks by Turkey and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).[6]
Turkish aircraft struck the SDF along the eastern bank of the Euphrates River on February 21. Turkish aircraft struck SDF positions east of Jarabulus.[7] Turkey has repeatedly struck SDF positions across the Euphrates River from Jarabulus since February 12.[8]
Turkey continued to strike SDF positions near Qara Qozak Bridge on February 21. Turkish aircraft struck several SDF positions near Sarrin, likely to isolate SDF units at the bridgehead west of the Qara Qozak Bridge.[9]
Anti-SDF media claimed that Turkish drones struck an SDF checkpoint near al Kasrat, south of Raqqa, on February 21.[10]
The Turkish Defense Ministry announced on February 21 that it killed 8 “PKK” fighters in northwestern Syria.[11] Turkey routinely conducts strikes targeting the "PKK” in northern Iraq and Syria, but it commonly conflates the PKK and the SDF.