It appears to me that we see the potential consequences of a potential US/Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program very differently.
You seem to think that it will be a localized episode, limited to Iran, and the US/Israel will prevail, in that they will seriously set back the Iranian nuclear program without any serious adverse consequenc…
It appears to me that we see the potential consequences of a potential US/Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program very differently.
You seem to think that it will be a localized episode, limited to Iran, and the US/Israel will prevail, in that they will seriously set back the Iranian nuclear program without any serious adverse consequences. That in turn will show the Arab Kingdoms that the US/Israel is in control, they will sign on and it will be business as usual.
I think this attack will, for openers, disrupt or stop the flow of 20% of the world's oil. That's enough to trigger a global economic meltdown--including the US. It has the potential to PERMANENTLY alter the the flow of oil. How? Well, if I'm the Iranian government, and I think I'm in a corner and my future is looking very dim, I do my own little Samson Option--I fling nuclear waste (readily available from an reactor) at oil shipping facilities and render them unusable for a few hundred hears.
Good chance the US/Israeli attack will require tactical nukes--do you think Russia and China will just idly watch? Even if the US/Israeli attack uses conventional high explosives, when it hit above ground nuclear facilities, the destruction of those facilities will unleash radiation.
So the question becomes, how will China and Russia respond? For that matter, how will Iran respond? Will they take out US satellites? Blockade Taiwan? Probably help Iran sink a few US warships--maybe a carrier. Maybe THEY will sink one themselves. We now know the Iranians can in fact hit Israel. They might just lob nuclear wastes into Israel.
Iran is not Syria or Hezbollah or Hamas. Iran can absorb several hits. Can Israel? Can the US fleet?
In the meantime, can anyone predict the fate of the pro-US Arab dictatorships in Egypt? Jordan? If Saudi Arabia gets hit, or not, will Osama Bin Laden supporters (many Saudis like him, just like many Americans like Trump--Islam First!)? How does that play out?
How does Russia (the most independent nation on earth, with a few thousand nuclear warheads to boot) "leverage" a US attack on Iran to perhaps attack Turkey, and get access to the Middle East?
Before that, how does Turkey "leverage" a US/Israel attack on Iran, to expand--they have big ambitions.
I'm afraid we will find out. And I'm afraid my view of things is as lot closer to reality than yours. I can't know what will go wrong and how, but things will go VERY wrong for humanity. SO, enjoy your (high electricity and water consuming) day!
It appears to me that we see the potential consequences of a potential US/Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program very differently.
You seem to think that it will be a localized episode, limited to Iran, and the US/Israel will prevail, in that they will seriously set back the Iranian nuclear program without any serious adverse consequences. That in turn will show the Arab Kingdoms that the US/Israel is in control, they will sign on and it will be business as usual.
I think this attack will, for openers, disrupt or stop the flow of 20% of the world's oil. That's enough to trigger a global economic meltdown--including the US. It has the potential to PERMANENTLY alter the the flow of oil. How? Well, if I'm the Iranian government, and I think I'm in a corner and my future is looking very dim, I do my own little Samson Option--I fling nuclear waste (readily available from an reactor) at oil shipping facilities and render them unusable for a few hundred hears.
Good chance the US/Israeli attack will require tactical nukes--do you think Russia and China will just idly watch? Even if the US/Israeli attack uses conventional high explosives, when it hit above ground nuclear facilities, the destruction of those facilities will unleash radiation.
So the question becomes, how will China and Russia respond? For that matter, how will Iran respond? Will they take out US satellites? Blockade Taiwan? Probably help Iran sink a few US warships--maybe a carrier. Maybe THEY will sink one themselves. We now know the Iranians can in fact hit Israel. They might just lob nuclear wastes into Israel.
Iran is not Syria or Hezbollah or Hamas. Iran can absorb several hits. Can Israel? Can the US fleet?
In the meantime, can anyone predict the fate of the pro-US Arab dictatorships in Egypt? Jordan? If Saudi Arabia gets hit, or not, will Osama Bin Laden supporters (many Saudis like him, just like many Americans like Trump--Islam First!)? How does that play out?
How does Russia (the most independent nation on earth, with a few thousand nuclear warheads to boot) "leverage" a US attack on Iran to perhaps attack Turkey, and get access to the Middle East?
Before that, how does Turkey "leverage" a US/Israel attack on Iran, to expand--they have big ambitions.
I'm afraid we will find out. And I'm afraid my view of things is as lot closer to reality than yours. I can't know what will go wrong and how, but things will go VERY wrong for humanity. SO, enjoy your (high electricity and water consuming) day!