JHK’s Three-Act Play
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Hayes Martin is President of MarketExtremes. com., which provides quantitative analysis of stock market psychology, and specifically of extremes of crowd behavior. He has a selective clientele of high net-worth individuals and money managers. For more information, interested individuals can go to his website: marketextremes.com, or call him at 718-598-5034.
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I do not even know what the “Markets” are anymore Jim. I DO know that they are light years different from what they were in 1929 when lots of little guys and real people sent them their money with the hope of growth. They are also so far removed from what they were when I was a young man when we all tried to play the same game and were fortunate if we came out with as much as we put in. Today it seems at least to me (who has nary a penny in the pool) that they are only charlatan’s tents in which the lords of the land play numbers games on machines and sell it all as some sort of placebo to convince the working idiots that they are a lot better off than their paychecks would indicate. Why anyone gives the proverbial rat’s ass about the number they put up on the screen is beyond me.
“… The VIX a new character on the scene…”? Really?
Again, Kuntsler is revealing how little he knows about the markets – Go figure, he’s been making outright stupid predictions about market drops, etc. for years.
For starters, VIX was originally created years ago as a volatility indicator: Nothing more, nothing less.
Then in 2011, through the miracle of derivatives, people were able to trade (OK, more like placing bets on) the VIX through leveraged ETF’s: short-volatility ETF’s like XIV, SVXY, etc., or the (bearish) long volatility ETF’s like UVXY, TVIX, etc.
And this “professional” market psychology guy “never heard of XIV”? And he calls himself a professional? He didn’t know anything about trading volatility?
As a private technical trader, I think this guest is a joke. He’s making predictive calls on where the VIX is going to be months from now without any basis, or data to support it. Technical analysis DOES TRACK the psychology of the market through trend analysis indicators.In our universe, everything can be represented with mathematics, whether it’s baseball cards, or the stock market. Moving average analysis, the bounded indicators, etc. work if you know how to use them. The guest saying he’s “a contrarian” means that he’s probably been losing his clients a lot of money. You go with the trend to make money, using TA to spot the tops and bottoms.
I’ll listen to gifted technical people like Kay Kim who KNOW what they’re talking about and provide an immense service by teaching the public on YouTube how to trade:
https://www.youtube.com/user/2kaykim
He has an established track record on YouTube and has been batting 1000 on his predictive calls. He even called the most recent correction on the S&P.
In addition, Kuntsler (he really is an old curmudgeon, BTW) keeps goading the guy with “So the markets are going to crash, huh? They’re going to crash big?” Please.
I can tell people here this: As of the close on 03/08/2018, SPX has some good daily and weekly technical support here. It does need to get above the 50-day moving average (2739.84) and the 4-MONTH moving average (2737.55 – Wow, amazing how these numbers virtually overlap from different temporal charts, isn’t it? Maybe all the algos out there are making things even more predictable).
If we can get above this resistance, then we’re going higher. If not, the worst-case scenario is re-visiting the 200-day MA, which was hit PRECISELY intraday a few weeks ago, before going back up, which means that you’re smart traders bought and have already made good money. This is basically what the guest is outright predicting, without any basis to support it.
We’ll have to see how the market finishes on Friday, then opens on Monday, after everyone forgets that the World isn’t ending after all – or maybe some bad news or event takes place over the weekend, where this overhead resistance pushes the S&P back down. It still doesn’t mean were going back all the way down to the 200-day MA.
Bottom line, people: Quit getting your market information from people like Kuntsler, Rickards, Dent, Martenson, etc. All this “The FED is bad, the FED is evil,” etc. isn’t doing anything for anyone. Maybe they are evil, whatever. Learn how the markets really work. Think like the Big Dogs on Wall Street and you can make money like them.
^ look, a cornucopian who doesn’t realize there are limits to growth on our finite planet… smh
Uh… No, actually I’ve been a peak oiler for well over a decade (was member of Portland Peak Oil, when it used to meet-up), an advocate of the MIT Limits to Growth study, climate change, etc.
However, I focus on this thing called “reality.” In terms of societal collapse, we’re still bumbling along, which means we need to focus on the here-and-now. The Central Bank controlled economy is still working, for now.
Even David Graeber’s book Debt: The First 5000 years simply ends his book with the fact that we are in “totally uncharted territory.” No more, no less.