First!

The real bottom line ? The value of homes, the value of commercial property, the value of real estate: these values have been blowed up way out of proportion starting from the JAPAN of the 1980s, most of the European Union and the USA from the 1970s to present. These values have been way above average salaries, have no correspondence to the reality of what people make and more alarmingly so, what people will possibly make in the future. These values like house above 200,000 dollars in California, 2 bedroom homes in London of 400,000 dollars etc. are completely bogus, imaginary, impossible to be real and in fact are not real. These home values have been inflated way beyond reality for three reasons:

1) To make people "feel rich", to give them an illusion of how rich they are and how much money they could "cash in" when they "sell" (as if it is so automatic and easy to sell in any possible future ignoring how everything can possibly change in the future);

2) To find some kind of investment for the 80 trillion dollars of profit money hanging around in the world not knowing what to do, to find some kind of magical return, return on investment, profit for money just sitting in a room. Now I feel the entire concept of investment and profit is mostly a farce, bogus, unreal, is a make believe fantasy, magical thinking gimick: investments can be made and profits and money can be made in certain areas (apple with their ipad), chinese factories turning out products by paying their workers 200 dollars a month, etc: but the bottom line is that most profits are made by giving less money to some actors and skinning off more for the owner's class. Not much by "innovation". But they found a great "innovation": make real estate values and prices blow up forever, and make people believe and pay ever higher prices for these homes, for this basic good everyone needs, and let them pay by borrowing from the "future".

3) Convince everyone that there is a "population explosion", that housing is scarce, that you have to get your "own house" before the "resources run out". In fact most nations are undergoing a flat population growth, some are going backwards, the future is not in resource scarcity, there are and will be any number of homes available to anyone. They are mostly kept off the market, they are mostly fake scarcities due to the fact that the jobs are all in hot areas so everyone wants a home in the hot areas and the prices go sky high.

The prices of homes in the developed world most go WAY DOWN, like not more than 100,000 dollars for a 2 bedroom whether in JAPAN, UK or California. Because the future "work" that people will need to pay these homes will not and cannot pay salaries of more than 500 to 1000 dollars a month: there is no reason to pay white collars workers in Los Angeles or London more than can be paid a guy in Sao Paolo, Brazil or Jakarta, Indonesia. In these places a dude will readily accept 800 dollars a month, is more disciplined and better educated and will be very happy to make such a "high salary as perceived by them". This is the future reality.

We must remember that evaluating this incident as an "incident" is foolish. This was the result of decades of risk accumulation during oil industry operations. Leaked and spilled contaminants are the unacknowledged "nuclear waste" of the fossil fuel industry. The cover-ups have become so elaborate over the decades, they would restore your belief in conspiracy theories if disclosed.

http://hurricanekatrinakaif.com

Matt is getting too extreme with the whole nuclear seal-off bid; I mean if we don't have the capacity to put a cap on the well with any degree of competence, how can we be expected to safely execute a nuclear detonation at those depths? It's never been done before and is therefore too risky.

But there's no doubt the well has been compromised and BP wants to play the "cap is working" drama just long enough to shift the blame of the next consequential disaster elsewhere. And given the current state of government, they'd get away with it too. Don't think for a moment that BP won't survive this. BP would, the gulf wouldn't.

Jim, sometimes very smart people from one field can get way out of their depth in another. I've been following The Oil Drum closely and there are really knowledgeable people on there. They ask up front that people read back posts before suggesting any harebrained schemes like nuking the well. The whole problem with the sea bed is that is exactly not rock. It's more like quicksand. And if there is oil and methane escaping the bore, it's seeping into that, gradually making it soupier and less able to hold up what's basically a very long telescoping flagpole. My climate change hero, James Lovelock has a pet peeve about organic agriculture and water pollution, so he says a key solution to the food supply problem would be Quorn. That's chicken-like nuggets made from fungus. This is a bad idea from a world-class genius.

Lynn
http://www.10in10diet.com/
Diet for a small footprint and a small grocery bill.

Well, there's the whole matter of Simmons shorting BP, so take him with a grain of salt.

According to this blog, BP has breached a massive high pressure bubble of methane that can no longer be sealed by any means. The massive amounts of methane will eventually escape into the atmosphere, rise to concentrations of 5%, at which point lighting will ignite the gas causing monstrous explosions that will kill millions. Think air-fuel bombs of the type the Russians used to incinerate Grozny, only on a much larger scale.

http://www.helium.com/items/1882339-doomsday-how-bp-gulf-disaster-may-have-triggered-a-world-killing-event

This is what it would take. To turn this country around, to turn it against big oil. A disaster with bodies in the streets, so horrific that Americans will wake up from their slumber and be ready to fight. As we have before.

It is foolish to believe anything BP, the government, or the media are telling us. There have been so many lies and coverups regarding the oil volcano that for them to start telling the truth is impossible.

Saying it is capped and oil isn't spewing anymore takes it off the front page of ABCNNBCBS so we can forget about it and go on with our oblivious, distracted lives.

I'm no expert, but some (IMO) halfway rational observations: The hazard from a nuke would be dependent upon the geology in the lower mile of the hole. Geologists would be able to determine that from the material which came up with the drilling--originally or with the relief-well effort.

If the cap doesn't work, and no nuke is used, it seems to me that the only way to stop the flow would be to reduce the gas pressure. I see no way to do that but to play, "Drill, baby, drill," and get as many producing wells going as possible. Accelerate the usual depletion as much as possible.

I don't whether Matt Simmons' ideas about the Gulf are lunatic or not, but I do know he has a truly lunatic idea that we can convert ocean energy into liquid ammonia and convert our cars to run on liquid ammonia. This is true lunacy because ammonia is highly toxic. Not only would I never want to be in an ammonia fueled vehicle, I'd never want to live any where near someone who did. Even a small leak in the fuel system of an ammonia fueled vehicle could kill or injure an entire neighborhood.

Simmons has been promoting this ammonia idea for years and has funded a research effort in Maine to break it to fruition.

I wouldn't exactly call the mistakes with the Deepwater Horizon as conspiracy thinking as more a series of accidents, every step created and made worse by Corporate and Corporate-owned-government malfeasance. The conspiracy (if any, to make this Kunstler Friendly) is what led to this in the first place.

And I do believe that we have indeed unleashed forces that we can't control. The fact that the stuff coming out this time is red instead of black (proof of Abiotic Oil, perhaps?) points to this, in my opinion.

Matt Simmons is in the same position as the Morton Thiokol engineer who knew that cold o-rings would cause the space shuttle to blow up in 1986. Most people watched the explosion dumbfounded while this guy sat on the floor and cried knowing full well what had just happened and why. People ignore inconvenient facts or painful truths, such as the realization that the Gulf of Mexico is likely dead for our children’s lifetimes and maybe beyond.

Sobering bit today, Jim.

One has to wonder if BP won't use its mammoth resources to "wag the dog," by funding some nastiness halfway around the globe - as a way to get our eyes off the tar ball...

And is it just me, or shouldn't this event have the transparency of say, a NASA mission? (realizing of course that they weren't all THAT transparent..) But, at the very least, instead of a live shot of oil gushing on the ocean floor, I'd like a live shot of the joint Guvment/BP command center. OK. Just musing.

I nearly never watch TV news, so perhaps someone else can clarify this for me, but has the MSM (on any level) asked the question; "why if" these caps don't work? Have they asked, "Is the well structurally damaged deeper down?" Just curious

Pilt

"To turn this country around, to turn it against big oil. A disaster with bodies in the streets, so horrific that Americans will wake up from their slumber and be ready to fight."

That will be a fight for a much lower standard of living. No more automobiles, no more air travel, much higher prices for consumer goods delivered by fossil fuel powered transport.

How much carnage would it take for people to voluntarily go from prosperity to poverty? A great deal, I suspect.

I'm a geophysicist, although not a petroleum geophysicist. What maybe there is a large reservoir of gas and oil, perhaps cubic kilometers in volume (try getting your head around that one), although this information is usually closely guarded. The product is held in porous rock, within in the pore spaces (5-10% of the total volume). When oil is pumped under normal circumstances, by applying a negative pressure to the well, which the oil and gas migrate to because of the lowered pressure in the well bore induced from the pumping.
In the case of this well, the pressure is coming from the formation (the porous rock, and this is what is pushing the gas/oil out. Until this pressure is released, (the pressure in the formation equals the pressure out of the formation), it will continue to spew. This one apparently has rather high pore pressure and volume, and what's come out so far is an indication of the amount of gas phase, and the porosity.

Yeah, Bobby, this formation certainly rates high for the 3 Ps for oil production. Which is why I suggested extensive drilling...

The utility of a nuke, seems to me, would depend on the geology of whatever formation overlies the oil-bearing formation.

Matt Simmons was also part of Dick "shoot your friend in the face" Cheney's secret energy task force that met in the White House in the spring of 2001. At that time Simmons was well aware of the situation in Saudi Arabia and threats to oil supply. Can you imagine Simmons sitting in those meetings and not putting out a forceful argument for peak oil? Cheney as former CEO of Halliburton should have known as well, and for the CEOs of American Auto manufactures, who were busy building gas guzzling SUVs, not to have known this would be the height of corporate hubris. what did the Bush administration do with this info? Continue with the status quo: seek more supply, soft pedal conservation, avoid increasing CAFE standards, eventually take the country to war in Iraq, where they could pump a barrel of oil for 50 cents from the largest untapped reserve known and eventually issue a lame statement about America being "addicted to oil" with out any further discussion of what the implications of that means. I am not into conspiracies either but to know of a situation and not have the guts to confront is tragic as we see looking at our current situation with economy, unemployment and foreign wars.... Moe

In one of his first interviews as well as one 2 months into the disaster Matt Simmons made the simple statement and calculation that given the diameter of the pipe there is no way that the volume of oil escaping is just coming out of the relatively small pipe.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gHJbVLRW5Q&feature=related
OR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKLaBOeHqdY

The BP oil spill has changed the Gulf of Mexico forever. For years into the future oil and other intermediate oil dispersion chemicals will surface or wash up on shore.

From now on, it will be impossible in most cases to identify the sources of oil or other contaminiates. Future operations are "free" to go about their business knowing that no one can blame their particular operations for oil appearing in any number of hundreds of square miles.

It seems that the first thing to do is to send ROVs down
into the depths of the Gulf and see if that pool of oil and methane is there or not. The US Navy could do this, or several oceanographic institutions, like Woods Hole.

In retrospect, it appears to have been a very stupid move to give BP or anyone else a license to drill at such depths in US territorial waters. Rather than placing blame mainly on BP, we should be directing our national ire at those regulators who gave them the permit.

Jim's reasoning appears sound, although a comment noting the Matt Simmons is short BP stock raises some concern that his radical position is just a well-concealed self-interested PR move to drive down their stock price. We can hope that's all it is.

This is disturbing news for a Monday morning, but I suppose we should get used to it. Our government has been playing fast and loose with our environment and thinks nothing of killing hundreds of thousands of people in a clumsy quest to secure oil supplies in the Middle East, why wouldn't something as catastrophic as this occur to remind us that "chickens come home to roost, eventually".

We can only pray that the outcome is not as bad as Simmons has predicted. Sometimes we do get lucky even though we don't deserve it.

The silver lining in this crisis, if there is one, is that "if Matt Simmons is correct, and it turns out that the US government has been played by BP, then remaining public trust in the competence and legitimacy of government could evaporate."

The handling of the Katrina fiasco should have destroyed any public confidence in government, except that people were able to blame it on the Republican administration at the time. That misses the point that government at that level of abstraction is quite dependably incompetent.

We all need to consider how our dependence on our big corrupted government has endangered our health in matters such as the subsidized, unnatural foods we are encouraged to eat, the weird neurological poisons the FDA permits the food industry to sell as artificial sweeteners(the excitotoxin Aspartame).

We need to secure our health from a similar dependence on incompetent regulators who are charged with providing us with safe food and drugs.

Let's not get too distracted by government mishandling of oil leases in the Gulf, when there are ways we are all at risk from an oil-dependent food supply and now, a federally-managed health care system.

A general loss of faith that our benevolent government is looking out for us would be the best take-away message from this latest instance of federally-regulated idiocy.

http://www.healthyplanetdiet.com for more ways on how you can secure your family's health during "The Long Emergency".

iteresting talk on the nuke option-used to supply drilling mud(and to the oil industry) to the Nevada test site where over 800 nukes were tested underground-we used to laugh about all the money and effort being spent to wipe out the world-this goes back over 35 years-there is no way we can go another 10 years without above ground "testing" of these weapons-love the ones that matter to you-it is the only thing that really counts-anything else is a waste of effort-i am sorry that my kids,their families and their friends will not have the life i enjoyed.....

Matt Simmons is a very believable authority of the oil industry and has worked as an investment banker servicing oil company transactions for forty years. He was an advisor to "W", so you know Cheney liked him for that.

Beyond this catastrophic event in the Gulf, Simmons has made some solid assessments about the trouble the oil industry is in.

In a recent interview (May '10) with Jay Taylor, Simmons outlined some oil industry issues ranging from poor and crumbling oil refineries worldwide and the $100 trillion it would take to rebuild 60% of the global oil infrastructure. This would force prices upward. Not to mention that there's a water scarcity and oil refining requires three gallons of water to one gallon of oil. Sounds a bit daunting, doesn't it?

He claims that two-thirds of the present engineers will be retiring in the next 5-7 years and laments that the new crop of technicians who were supposed to fill their shoes were recently fired due to the economy.

He questions the veracity of the Saudi claims of oil supply and describes the Iran and Iraqi fields to be too old to produce predicted quantities of oil to fill global needs.

So what the ____ was the Iraqi war all about? All these transnational oil companies from Russia, China etc. have dibs on the Iraqi oil fields. He doesn't expect much increase in yields in the future. Is this going to come as a nasty surprise after they backed our preemptive war?

The demand from China and India is exacerbating supply and demand, as we all know, warping the global situation even more.

So back to BP. This morning I turned on MSNBC to be hit with a real PR message from BP. Well in some ways this PR campaign could backfire as it is common knowledge that they have been trying to control the message with no independent journalism.

They have already lost their credibility and the idea of pushing oil down to lower depths of water through dispersants and the idea that oil could be gushing out of the gulf floor, reminds me of the old "If a tree falls in the woods...."

What you don't see can't hurt you until it does....

'Out there'is an adequate description of this crazy scenario. The idea that a nuclear device will neatly seal the leaking well in a nice, tight glass slag is wrong-headed. Plus, I can't imagine Obama giving the go-ahead on this idea over the nearly at its destination relief well. This 'lake' of petroleum at the bottom of the ocean waiting to be stirred up by the next hurricane is equally out there. Jim, please stick to what you know and do best.

I can only imagine that the nuclear option is not on the table right now and that is would take many months of planning to even consider it an option.

If as Simmons says, a giant cloud of Methane is pooling down there, ready to rise up in a conflagration of Biblical proportions, the powers that be will plead ignorance and surprise if it actually blows.

Regardless of what happens we will be living with this disaster forever. I saw a White Hummer limo gassing up yesterday. Nothing has changed... yet.

Aimlow Joe was here.
http://www.aimlow.com

Driving is so over rated. I've been unemployed for a bit. Sitting still and watching the largely purposeless mechanization of the world is the cat's meow... It's also very perplexing.

Half the people that go to "work" sit and play online all day. Cops flirting with girls via iPhone applications. People playing facebook games while at their desk jobs.

What if a nuke caused a bigger explosion or an even bigger hole that can't be filled. The only holes that big are the ones in the middle of the majority of materialistic American women's hearts. This of course does not include the girls who are good with money and know how to smile and bake cookies.

Seriously though. This oil thing is bad. Our legal systems are terrible. The profit motive has to go or be reinvented. Profit should mean profit for the good of man and the Earth instead of ones wallet. Maybe its all JP Morgan's fault when he didn't allow Tesla technologies to come to market. What IS electricity *really*? Think about it. Most of it comes from the void. Electromagnetism and electricity make everything go including humans at a subatomic level. Why can we not tap these things differently? When will they ever turn on the giant laser facility to perform fusion? One BB of gold in fusion generates enough energy to power the US for a year. Consider the whimsical nature of that. A single BB. All that power. Where does it all hide? The physicists know. Are they keeping secrets? Where are Tesla technologies now?

You think the oil is bad you might want to look into some of this country's artificially intelligent death machines they are developing. WHY?!? Who do we have left to kill or destroy? Are we all retarded? The biggest issue in the world is remediating human psychology and perspectives at every point in the stack.

Companies don't even bother to optimize their employee base logistically (commutes). It's all pretty simple to optimize our reality. Put resources and sustainability closer to where people live in newly engineered communities but no one wants to do it. Our farmers could serve as open land to build these communities to start but then we'd need to actively remediate the ones that are already standing.

I've read Matt Simmons' book "Twilight In The Desert", and have listened to him on the subject of PO. I also think he's been credible and accurate on that issue. Notice that recently the Saudis made a statement saying they would "halt oil exploration to save remaining reserves for future generations." They've basically acknowledged what he's been saying all along. So, he's a credible person in that respect. The Gulf situation I don't know. He keeps saying there's a bigger leak 7 miles away that's not only leaking oil, but methane gas which will result in the deaths of millions. If that's true, and it may well be so, more concrete data on his part is required to be taken seriously. Otherwise, he comes off sounding like a crackpot.

Good job this week, JHK!

I just got back from the Gulf from a family business/reunion trip that we've been taking for over 50 years. I'll try to file a complete post about my observations from the Gulf later on in the week. It is both better and worse than is reported in the "news."

To address "What If He's Right," try the following. Mr. Simmons seems to be an advocate of extreme positions regarding energy. I'm enough of a scientist to understand the underlying physics and chemistry. I can rate his catastrophe ideas as "plausible and understandable," and at the same time rate some of them as "unlikely to occur."

In the short term, regarding this "spill", if Simmons is right then we as a Nation face a huge disaster that might wake us up to the nasty things the oil economy is forcing us to do to the planet and ourselves. These things are nasty from an environmental and a political standpoint.

In the long term, Simmons has a higher chance of being right sometime over the next 50 years as oil drilling moves into more extreme environments.

I think that is the view we need to take. Eventually, oil will be GONE as an energy source.

It would benefit the US of A tremendously if we could face that fact with resolve and a plan for the future.

"Oil is cheap because we steal it from our kids."

Jim, I have long been a fan of Matt and have always thought he was a straight shooter as well. But now that he has stepped down or perhaps was forced out, his pronouncements have gotten a bit strident. I will continue to listen to him but the circumstances of his departure from Simmons and Co give me pause. His idea of nuking the well is one of the comments that gave me pause. He says the Russians have used it successfully to cap blowouts in central Asia in the 60's. True enough but those were gas wells ON LAND. They were not oil wells miles deep. No one knows what would happen if it were tried in deep ocean. If the formation is leaking oil elsewhere, I would fear that an explosion could increase the chance of a truly catastrophic ocean floor blowout given that oil and water are incompressible. Only one way to find out. Ask Jindal and the other southern goon governors if they want to give it a shot! At this point no one is in control of this bad situation and the danger of thinking "dammit DO sumthin! Anything!" is probably a greater danger than letting BP muddle along doing the best it can, which so far hasn't been very inspiring.

"Simmons has put his reputation on the line. A lot of bystanders and commentators are treating him as a fool."

This will play into the hands of industry shills like Daniel Yergin and all the cheese-doodle-eating buffoons who believe that oil is infinite if we just drill enough.

But if Simmons were correct about the methane bubble and its potential--forget the nuke business, which seems very dicey--he'd be the greatest Cassandra of human history.

I love Simmons' book and have great respect for him, but even at the risk of him being discredited, I really, really hope he's wrong on this.

This is the stuff of an SF novel already; I hope the denouement is not post-apocalyptic.

1) As Fissile has astutely pointed out, Matthew "if global warming is real" Simmons is not the only source for this potential story.

2) Matthew "if global warming is real" Simmons is as sober as any other global warming "skeptic", which is to say, not very.

But The Peak Community (TPC) is--unfortunately, unconscionably, offensively and counterproductively--awash with global warming deniers and nine eleven was an inside job moonbats. TPC revels in this brand of pseudoscientific, brains falling out of head "open mindedness".

3) This morning Chris Hedges spoke truth to the Matthew "if global warming is real" Simmons corporate-scum of this dying world:

"The leaders of these corporations now determine our fate. They are not endowed with human decency or compassion. Yet their lobbyists make the laws. Their public relations firms craft the propaganda and trivia pumped out through systems of mass communication. Their money determines elections. Their greed turns workers into global serfs and our planet into a wasteland.

"As climate change advances we will face a choice between obeying the rules put in place by corporations or rebellion. Those who work human beings to death in overcrowded factories in China and turn the Gulf of Mexico into a dead zone are the enemy. They serve systems of death. They cannot be reformed or trusted."

Having a big conflagration down in the Gulf would be a fitting consequence to our collective hubris. Yeah, it's convenient to blame BP and the government for the current tragedy and the sword of Damocles that now hangs over our heads. Take a look around. Behold our profligate use of oil. So now we discover that we've been burning the stairs for firewood (just like in the 'hood). Fact is, we are all complicit in this tragedy, one way or another.

This whole "oil spill" thing is far out there, and so much of the info surrounding it is either conjecture or guess work.

Does anyone know about or have a map of the sub surface rock strata? What are the dimensions of the reservoir? How many feet down does one need to go to find a contiguous layer of rock?

Why did BP choose this location for the "horizon?"

Where else did they consider drilling? Where were they going to drill next? What do they know about those areas? What does the "scientific community" know about this area? What independent information sources exist?

C'mon, at some point someone should get big Don Rumsfield (or Simmons) out here to tell us about the "known unknowns" and """unknown unknowns....."""

Clusterfuck indeed!

The summary given here understates the wildness of the claims Matt Simmons has made. Far beyond saying that "the well-bore is fatally compromised", Simmons wrote that the well blew out completely and that the current activity is at a replica well head some miles from the real well.

The lake of oil Simmons describes is hidden from direct examination by water a mile deep. The location of the well head is not. I'm having trouble understanding how the well could have moved six miles without anyone noticing, in this day and age when GPS and satellite images can be used to locate anything on the surface of the planet within a few feet.

imo...BP is/has been spewing more BS than the Macondo has oil and the US gov is more likely complicit than being played.

Even if Matt Simmons is short BP and attempting to influence stock price, there are surely other tactics available to him besides making these "bizarre" claims. I can't believe that is what he wants as his legacy. He has always seemed a straight shooter to me as well though I certainly have much less to base it on than Mr. K. Makes his statements all the more worrisome. I have read that other scientists have made similar statements. If that's true, I guess they are short BP too.

Zen17, I also believe that BP, the US gov and the media all desperately want this story to go away. Of course they do. This time though, they may not get their wish.

Jim from Watkins Glen, Your post gave me a chill.

"It seems that the first thing to do is to send ROVs down into the depths of the Gulf and see if that pool of oil and methane is there or not."

They have probably done that... If millions of people in Gulf States are in harms’ way, moving us out would result in financial chaos. How far would you move of millions of people? Where would you house them? Not in my back yard yells Middle America. Who would pay for their housing and policing of the displaced?

And the biggest issue. Real estate in most of the southern US would go to $ zero. The truth is that banks are insolvent now but legally hiding that fact off the books hoping R/E will come back before they actually have to book those real losses. Wiping out that much R/E in one shot would crush the banks and probably the global financial system.

With all that you have witnessed since October 2008 who do you think is really more important to our leaders, the people or bankers?

I live in Florida; we will never be warned of impending disaster because to do so will hurt the profit margins of the financially powerful.

I have a question about this possible deep pool of oil & methane with its accompanying dead zones and oxygen depletion. How much gunk with density different from sea water does it take to disrupt the thermo-haline climate conveyor in the Atlantic?? I've read that a suddenly breaking glacial ice dam could let a mass of fresh water gush in and mess up the flow and cause an ice age in northern Europe. I know I'm putting it rather simply, but I'm just a simple cave man... How about it, climate experts?

What Nassin Nicholas imagined as a philosophical metaphor will become like a prophecy. The Black Swan, indeed.

And also, Edgar Allen Poe's raven, will in retrospect, be seen as prophecy. "Nevermore!"

The oil-covered bird, our grim reaper.

Greetings from the UK Jim...

Well Dave Cameroon PM our (newish) ‘big society’ focused leader will go, cap-in-hand to have chats with the great Obama man this week out there in DC about going ‘easy’ on that ole english energy company (BP).... for western focused energy-security autonomy stakes... and lets lay off that Libyan connection right?...

(We don’t want those pesky Chinese muscling in on the act any more than is necessary now do we?)

And therein lives the inescapable problem....no matter how bad things get for the ole stalwart and shrinking western OECD economies all neatly brand aligned and market product Starbucks/Coke/KFC/MacD’s/BurgerKing/PizzaHut focused...

(Tis still boom-time and catch-up with ‘I’m worth it’ consumerism over there in the east an Asia)

So let’s all pray the rumours about one elephant field to come are right....out there in East Africa.... in which case a black Commander-in-Chief with intact African heritage starts to make some kinda Madison Avenue sense now doesn’t it?....lol. Defo, if it buys some extra oil-driven divertissements time! Hummer H3 anybody?

(Come what may the clock for serious oil supply hick-ups still keeps ticking)

And with it, the serious central banking easy money going, going, gone and being totally squandered scenario.... even if we could, right here, right now – just do it - with that badly needed new green ‘infrastructure’... tis very likely now the real chance for a smooth and orderly transition tis long gone...unplanned for emergencies, just like run-away-dysentry-sh#t will increasingly happen.

If sensible (some) tiny % of folks will have already factored these sobering realities in bye now, headed off the beaten track, and will be forming capable share-ware and low-tech based multi-skilled small sustainable resilient communities...

Awaiting the inevitable apocalypse, god forbid false-flag generated (for the reduced collective greater goods enhanced survival benefit)
For those sheeple that haven’t twigged, and that are still distracted by garden of facebook delights, silicone twitter enhancements, and jiminy-cricket hollywood wished for fantasy...well a more likely Hieronymus Bosch end me thinks awaits...
And it will be too late to whine-n-scream.... (where were the warnings)
They’re staring right at you folks....

It's hard to believe that a massive killing off of Floridians would change American's "way of life".

Over 40,000 Americans a year, year after year after year, die in horrible crashes, with many more maimed, paralyzed and brain damaged.

After 9-11 "when everything changed", nothing changed in the oil consumption department, just the free country department.

The US has spent the lives of over 5,000 American troops since 9-11, without any visible consternation among the rest of us.

As to whether a methane bubble would make it intact to Florida - how long has it taken for the oil to hit the beaches, and is it intact?

I don't know the physics of methane bubbles, but Florida is a long way from the rupture, and air currents are even more volatile than ocean currents. I would assume that it would be diffused by the time it hit Florida.

Although if it gets Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris, hmmmm, there are upsides to every calamity.

Today's post had me scouring the web, but I can't find any information about Kim Kardashian's body-suit collection. Do you have a link?

Most people could pay attention to the smart advice if they could read but they might be too busy at the ball game buying peanuts and popcorn as per the programming schedule. Stay tuned we'll be right back with a message from your sponsors.

Matt Simmons should stick to investment banking, because engineering and science are obviously not his forte. First of all, putting a nuclear bomb into the borehole would create more than just heat sufficient to fuse rock. The blast would also create a massive shockwave, the force of which would fracture rock for a great distance around the well. Metaphorically speaking, instead of the oil now spewing up through a small straw, it would then be seeping up through the entire surface area a large sponge. You tell me which is easier to contain. It is critical to maintain the geological integrity of the rock formation and seal the pipe. Although I will say that BP's solution of just "capping" the pipe is almost as idiotic. The damn well needs to be PLUGGED not capped. I guarantee that this "cap" will fail in short order. The only question is "when?".

So much for our 'special' relationship. Btwn BP, Britain pulling out of Afghanistan and Robert Fisk's latest article on the 'unctuous' 'groveling' Obama, it certainly explains away the quotation marks.
Sad, sad situation. I really wish a solution loomed just around the corner....haven't had a car for 8 years, but will rent one tomorrow, then return it the following day...at least that....

I wonder... If there WAS a methane release from a tropical storm or hurricane, would the robust and widespread wind patterns of the storm sufficiently disperse the methane to mitigate the loss of any life?

I also wonder if Mr. Simmons is trying to further crash the Gulf real estate market so he can make some low cost purchases? I mean, come on people, he is an investment banker for the oil industry for crissake. This isn't a concerned government scientist we are talking about. Given his profession and background, people should be skeptical of his claims.

Although Mr. Simmons may be a nice and usually sober-minded man and one knowledgeable in the mechanics of oil industry investing and in the state of many oil fields, he is not thereby either a geologist, or a chemist, or a nuclear scientist specialized in nuclear detonations carried out under thousands of feet of water.

Let me add here that nuclear detonations always have to be tested when carried out in new environments, for their effects cannot be predicted with certainty.

To me, there is no doubt and no hesitation: Mr. Simmons has clearly over-stepped his bounds, and that is sufficient to take away some of the nice credibility he had acquired over his years as a peak oil activist.

It is not responsible of a man such as him to issue pronouncements the soundedness of which it is not within his competencies to guarantee.

There have many a person who have had a keen awareness to something very important thought to be crazy. I don't know if that applies to Mr. Simmons or not. It appears he has had wild ideas.

Nuking the hole--what would that create? The Russians have said that their experience with doing it has been only partially successful. And, that was only on land. This idea would be under the high pressures, and extreme temperatures beneath the sea floor.

Would it fracture the rock formations surrounding the deep cavern allowing the oil and gas to find other areas to pool, escape, and rise to the surface?

If Mr. Simmons is correct, and the instability of the well bore is true, and I believe it is, too, then look out.

Why is BP allowed to continue to speak out in the media? That should have been stopped from the beginning. It would be like Tony Soprano, after being suspected of blowing up stuff resulting in death and destruction, to have a public voice.

http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com

How bout that global warming? Too hot to sit around and worry. My theory is the well was running out of moxie so they put the cap on it for show. Go BP!!!

Now as a girl who knows how to smile and bake cookies I realize I am treading in dangerous waters with this comment, but still...

It amazes me how many men out there feel qualified to make pronouncements about the oil spill, underwater nuclear fixes etc etc.

Gee, you guys are just so smart! I noticed the same solid confidence emanating from my 10 year old grandson recently, and marvelled at how young you males start with the bull shit.

That's all, I'll return to the kitchen now. Anybody want a sandwich?

"and it turns out that the US government has been played by BP, then remaining public trust in the competence and legitimacy of government could evaporate."

the government is never allowed to act competently and assert their legitimacy because the right wing noise machine and the teabaggers are so enamored with private industry "self-regulation." so why blame the government for something that they were asked to cede responsiblity for in the first place? foolish.

Remember that line from the old Stevie Wonder hit "when you believe in things you don't understand, then you suffer, superstition aint the way." So much of what the typical American believes, from the fairy tale of "free market" economics to the magical belief that technology can cure all our ills, that it makes one wonder if will even recognize reality when it finally bitch-slaps us across our heads and we find ourselves living in the 14th century again.

I think the two-relief-well strategy is kind of weird as well. The only "real way" to contain ALL leaks from the reservoir is to "drill-baby-drill."

As long as we "need the oil" anyway, why aren't companies lining up to "suck this sucker dry?"

As long as production is lessened in another area, the overall effect of having ten rigs pumping in the area of the leak is nil.

And like I said, no one will be wiser as to who is spilling what anyway, so why not get in there and turn a profit if you can? This "single company response" to a spill that will affect the entire industry is sort of feeble in retrospect.

It is not responsible of [Simmons] to issue pronouncements the soundedness of which it is not within his competencies to guarantee.

Rubbish. Prior to 4/20, BP and Transocean were regarded as two of the most competent deepwater drillers. Testimony before the USCG board of inquiry established that BP shore engineers and offshore "company men" ignored known risks, cut corners, and put an inexperienced junior [who pled the 5th] in charge of a crucial test that resulted in loss of well control. Personnel on the drilling floor and in charge of BOP maintenance and mud pumping were rural high school educated "oilfield trash" who couldn't dare buck BP orders, however irrational.

There's more to this story than you appreciate. Simmons has a network of trusted friends in the oil patch who know exactly what happened at Macondo.

There is indeed more to this story than meets the eye. You have to remember that the power elite have a vested interest in not divulging information. Information is power. Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. What we are seeing evolve (devolve?) is our collective spirits (heaven help us) blacken like the thick stench spewing forth in the Gulf. B.P. has the U.S. government in its hip pocket. And if you think our government isn't aware of B.P.'s quaint little shennanigans, you haven't been paying attention, since, oh, I don't know, 1930? Everything from your gas propelled lawn mower (no carbon controls on that, thanks so much) to your glorious Hummer all have their precious parts in this tidy, summer drama.

Response to Mr. Kemp:

Speaking of the Katrina fiasco, I agree the Federal government displayed total incompetence. General Honere' not withstanding.

Which leads me to wonder each April 15th, why are we paying so much to operate the feds when we could be funding our state? Flip the tax bill. I am sure states would love it. Individual states could accomplish much more, with much closer oversight from more local citizens.

BP is pressure-checking the well bore for leaks. If the well bore was damaged during the initial explosion, then the leak will continue not the top of the riser, but through various cracks and fissures in the surrounding geology. If the well bore is damaged, it is possible to have a leak going for a long time indeed (until the reservoir pressure is capped naturally by the water pressure). Maybe this is what Matt Simmons is simply commenting on.

If the cap is oozing already, it's probably going to get worse as the pressure builds. It's not going to get any better. And if the well is plugged? Will that relieve all of the pressure that will press against the now compromised sea floor? We've made a bargain with the Devil by drilling the thing to begin with - we may have to go through with the deal and keep letting it flow in a contolled fashion. If not, we risk endless seepage if not a new geyser.

What if he's wrong?

Jim, thanks for this candor:

Readers here at Clusterfuck Nation are probably well aware of my past declarations of being allergic to conspiracy theories and crazy ideas generally. I'm not really equipped to evaluate Matt Simmons's warnings about the exact nature of the Macondo blowout and what might happen in the months ahead.

I think that applies to most of us in the Clusterfuck Nation, especially since most of us have never met Mr. Simmons.

Simmons spoke at the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston in 2009 saying the world is approaching "peak everything." He took his idea of resources dwindling and applied it to humans, saying that even the shortage in people was getting serious. In regard to [then] current economic woes, Simmons said:

"40,000 workers were lost in the in the past 4 months—probably more than all the new hires in 2006-2008. I think that most of these will not return to the oil industry. Employers expect half of current workers to retire in the next five to ten years.

In light of the fact that last year [in 2008] at OTC he said that "oil would go through $200 like a hot knife through butter," it should not be a shock that Mr. Simmons said:

High oil prices were not high enough.

Mr. Simmons then said that high oil prices failed to dampen demand. He went on to justify his $140-is-a-low-price theme by saying that "prices were not high enough to attract hordes of new hires that were needed."

When asked to offer solutions to current crises, Mr. Simmons advocated for living in a post-peak oil and gas world. He then enumerated what this means: liberate the work force by eliminating long-distance commuting and let people work at home; grow food locally to substantially limit how much petroleum is involved in food supply; and redesign a new fleet of seafaring vessels to ship people and goods by water.

JHK, I'm a physicist and I know some chemistry. Simmons is out of his tree. There is no methane catastrophe pending. In fact most of the leaked oil will never be found. Its volatile gases are quickly driven off and break down in salt water. The volume of oil released to volume of water in the affected area is at least 6 million to 1. Once the volatiles are driven off, the tar left behind will sink and be enmired with the mud that streams into the gulf from countless rivers and streams. Much the same thing happened in 1979 at the Ixtoc I blowout, which was functionally identical to this one but at a much shallower depth. We were really fortunate here, in that the natural flow of water from the Mississippi is so powerful that most of the oil released near the surface from the early stages of the disaster was pushed away, and that at depth has almost no chance of getting anywhere near the surface. From the beginning there has been nothing but stupidity and misinformation all round, from all parties, on this spill.

And BTW, nuking something at 5000 feet under water would have essentially zero effect on the surface environment. It would also do nothing to stop the well unless carried out at the same depth as the relief well. Since the relief well is guaranteed to work, it's pointless to even consider it.

Note that I am not defending the scum-sucking oil companies here or the government of toadies that kisses collective oil-ass. It's the general stupidity, ignorance, and trembling baby pussiness of everyone that makes me want to puke. Everyone from McChrystal to Eminem is a posturing, ignorant pussy in this ridiculous excuse for a country. Why should we have expected anything better from the clowns in the gulf?

-drl

I really had cause to laugh this morning when reading Elaine Supkis' excellent blog (available on this page under "links" about the carbon crew, Simmons, Al Gore, Prince Charming,er, I meant the ever dashing Prince of Wales, lecture us on how we need to "liberate" ourselves from peak oil. Of course, they do this while jet-setting around the country, living in lavish luxury, air-controlled palaces. They're now telling me that I need to turn off the window air conditioner in my my humble, three room, walk-up flat so that I can do my part to save the world. Golly gee, thanks for that advice. Makes me want to roll up the old shirt sleeves and create my own windfarm on my private balcony over looking Interstate 95. I know I'm of modest means, and extremely little importance, but just thinking about how my own little contribution in my own little corner of H.ll will save this poor, afflicted world that I have decimated. Oh, and to echo Grouchy Old Girl, there will be NO cookies baked today because it heats up the friggin kitchen. No sandwiches, either!

do more research.
Methane is Non-toxic! highly combustable, but does no damage to humans unless it displaces enough oxygen, which is really hard to imagine as the weather causes rapid mixing of atmospheric gases.

BTW, if you want to worry about a real methane catastrophe that the ignoranti will not report because they are too abysmally stupid to understand basic science, here it is: Global warming models do not account for the methane that inevitably will be released from the melting permafrost, as what was frozen for eons begins to rot. Methane is 20 times as effective at trapping infrared radiation as carbon dioxide. It breaks down rapidly into water and CO2 but not rapidly enough to prevent an enormous spike in world temperatures, particularly near the pole. This is nearly certain to happen. I tried to get people interested in this in the 1980s but environmentalists hooted at the poor science nerd's pretensions.

We saw how well the evacuations went during Katrina. Most were unable to evacuate and those who did were evacuated by FEMA to parts unknown. The people therefore will not evacuate themselves unless some else does it for them which in doing so means an admission of just how dangerous the situation geniunely is and has been, hidden and denied. In addition, the people of the region are loathe to decide between life or death by meager cleanup paycheck deducted from their (imaginary?) award somewhere down the line if this thing ever dies down enough to make it into court. By then, BP will be long gone.
Wait long enough to evacuate and there might just be nowhere safe to go.
As far as Matt Simmons and Utah, he's wrong about the effects incurred. Results of that nuking came out in the Cancer/early death/chronic illness statistics among residents in Utah and Nevada. This was made known to the public during the Bush attempt to dump waste at Yucca Mountain in 2006.

As far as Matt Simmons and Utah, he's wrong about the effects incurred. Results of that nuking came out in the Cancer/early death/chronic illness statistics among residents in Utah and Nevada.

With Matt Simmons we have the rare opportunity to test his predictions. We also shouldn't forget that Simmons was a former energy adviser to President Bush.

On June 10, 2010 Simmons warned that BP will be bust within a month as the cost of the Gulf of Mexico oil crisis spirals out of control. He specifically said that the scale of the spill is much bigger than BP imagines. Here is a quote from Simmons himself:

They're going to run out of cash from lawsuits, clean-up and other expenses. There isn't enough money in the world to clean up the Gulf of Mexico. Once BP realises the extent of this my guess is that they'll panic and go into Chapter 11.

So, there we have it. It is over a month later. BP did not go belly up ... they just intensified their suppression of the press, manipulation of the USA government, and increased their lies.

Simmons is not to be trusted either. He makes brash predictions and rarely gets called on them.

Well, actually, Barron's did call him out.

...Simmons has a 4,000-share short sale on BP that he picked up when the stock hit $37. That's in addition to a prior 4,000-share short sale he made at $48 a couple weeks prior. "It's going to zero," he says of BP stock. Mind you, Simmons has an interest and a deep investment in moving beyond fossil fuels.

The Barron's article went on to note that Simmon's Ocean Energy Institute, a renewable energy think-tank and venture capital fund he started in 2007, is involved in a project to develop off-shore wind power facilities and other alternative energies.

If Barron's assertion is true, it would appear that Simmons could have had a serious conflict of interest when he went onto so many TV and magazine interviews talking his book about BP and the Gulf oil spill.

From that perspective, his remarks would seem irresponsible and only added to the existing despair and chaos, which is nothing the nation, particularly the Gulf Coast residents, need right now.

One has to wonder if this potentially unethical and maybe illegal act could have been easily deterred if only the media, instead of dashing to a seemingly sensational headline, would take a minute to require a disclosure before putting Simmons on TV and quoting him?

Nah, that would be expecting too much of today's journalists.

Q said: "So if BP stock goes to zero - which it won't - Simmons makes $340,000. Big deal."

Spoken like a true Dept. of Defense contractor accountant.

Reply to Quistik: Good luck to your daughter and her degree in Women's Studies, as well as her manicurist on getting jobs with their respective degrees. (I think I go to the same manicurist and she's simply divine!) It's a jungle out there and we girls need to keep our claws sharp. I have a master's degree and haven't had a job since last November. A career? I gave up that idea during the reign of Bush II. Presently I'm trying to beat out a couple of teenagers out of part-time jobs at Wendy's. In the meanwhile, I'm getting pretty good at collecting aluminum cans, but the supermarkets are always after me to return their gosh-darn carts.

Regarding Matt Simmons' take on the GOM disaster: listen to the Matt Simmons interview on thetruthseeker.co.uk (link below) and you will be persuaded. In any case, the proof will be irrefutably in the water before much longer.
I have read TheOilDrum (TOD) since 2005 and couldn't agree more with sandiego's post that appeared on TOD this morning. fdoleza and his buddies are taking over TOD and saying all we can believe are PR releases from PB and the Gov., sneering at/silencing anyone else. This has caused me to move TOD from "Peak Oil Blogs" to "Mainstream Media" in my Favorites list. As is the case with money, bad posts drive out good. What a shame to see co-opted what had been one of the best sites on the Web.

sandiego on July 19, 2010 - 10:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments top
I have been a fan of TOD since reading The Long Emergency in 2005 (registered with TOD 3 years 27 weeks ago).
I think that Matt Simmons is probably correct in his assessment of the disaster in the gulf. http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=13070 (Listen to the interview!)
I also think that many of the new TOD “posters” are deliberately trying to downplay this event by quickly refuting, ingenuously questioning or ridiculing anyone trying to understand the truth of what is happening by posing as “drilling experts” or “having worked xx years in the oil industry” i.e. kalliergo, gmf, bbfellow, fdoleza, snakehead, deadman, esarlls3, hiver, porker, et. al (They all signed on to TOD exactly 7 weeks x days ago except bbfellow who signed on 6 weeks 2 days ago). Perhaps, BP is paying these shills? If BP is willing to pay university professors $250 per hour, how much are they willing to pay TOD “posters”?
The truth is: What if Matt Simmons is correct? What if we have been spending the last 90 days watching oil gush from a six-inch pipe while much more oil is spewing out 1-10 miles away?
Isn’t it (wouldn’t it have been) better to assume the worst case and act on that rather than downplaying the magnitude of what might be happening?

The truth of this oil spill fiasco is like chasing the wind down a Byzantine hall of mirrors. Nobody knows all, not even BP, and what they do know is juggled among the other decoy balls in the air.

My limited attention span needs something more tangible, such as Kunstler savaging hack architects and city planners. Speaking of which, I stumbled upon this old Kenneth Rexroth Urbanism and Community Planning essay from 1964:

http://www.bopsecrets.org/rexroth/essays/urbanism.htm

As far as I'm concerned, Simmons has lost it. Yes, I believe that the well casing is compromised, and that well can never safely be used as a production well, but it will still be possible to kill it from the bottom via the relief wells being drilled. The Ixtoc I oil spill was a well that failed in a manner similar to Macondo. That one took 10 months to stop, but they did stop it. Progress on Macondo is better, I say that the job will be done by the end of August, except for the cleanup. If the sea floor were as fragile as Simmons makes it out to be, there would be natural oil slicks all over the Gulf of Mexico.

The oil rig and methane bubble scenario sound eerily familiar to me. The very first sci-fi book I read back in the 70's was "Denver Is Missing" by D.F. Jones.

"It starts with a deep sea oil rig drilling for oil. The oil bit shatters unexpectedly, halting drilling. Several hours later, bubbles are observed breaking the surface of the water. The next morning, what had been just bubbles has now become a visible gasious water spout - shooting upwards into the sky. The sheer pressure of the gas to push through tons of seawater and maintain a solid column means the gas pocket is HUGE. The gas ... becomes a massive cloud which starts to cirle the earth. After weeks of the gas spout activity, the enormous ocean pocket left by the displaced gas collapses - causing multiple Tidal waves.

Formed quite an impression on me back then... maybe I'll get to see it played out for real!

"Denver is Missing" at Amazon

Much like one of those fortune-telling Magic 8 Balls that they used to sell, the following words floated to the top of my tiny mind: “Beware of the one who offers to protect you, for that is the very one against whom you will eventually require protection” (probably more of a “misquote” courtesy of a faulty memory than a quote from one of Gail Sheehy’s books). Although the author intended that sentence to be interpreted with respect to relationships, I tend to regard it in light of my ever-increasing distrust of anything governmental.

I have long since ceased to believe any claim of success put forth by either BP or the apparently gullible US government representatives in relation to their PR on the oil “spill.” In fact, I have recently become enamored of You Tube as a source of information -- a resource that has featured Matt Simmons in many of its videos of late. A belated thank you , incidentally, JH, for this week’s column in featuring this individual’s views and admonitions as I, too, consider him credible and respect his courage in voicing his concerns.

I have located a couple of very brief but informative You Tube offerings in the event anyone is interested. The first is entitled “Water Samples from Gulf Beaches Prove Toxic, Sample EXPLODES” posted for view by “5878467” and a real chiller-diller, “BP Cap = Methane Time” posted by “DeepwaterCrimes.”

I have had the feeling from the very beginning that this oil spill is going to be comparable to the Dust Bowl of the Great Depression, given the economic and political environment that we now face in our country. Another of Mother Nature’s reminders to mankind who is actually in charge, possibly exacerbated by an even Greater Depression. I sincerely hope not but I no longer trust what I am told by either my government or the MSM.

Sorry, I want to follow my post on ammonia with a more detailed link, for those who are interested:

http://www.nh3car.com/FAQ1.htm

Okay, the sun is down, my flat has cooled off (and no, I DID NOT turn off my window air conditioner). The cookies are in the oven if anyone is still interested. I figure after two or more scotch and sodas, I'll pass out for another night. Weatherman says it's only going to be 98 tomorrow (liar!) Think I'll start my balcony garden tomorrow. Maybe some tomatoes, snow peas (at least that sounds cool), a row or two of corn (we call it maize). By the way, ladies, a great way to keep cool in this heat is to keep your undies in the freezer. (Marilyn Monroe did this in the movie, "The Seven Year Itch". Trust me, it works.

Well, here is a link to a story about the potential of a methane lake in that well that could blow... it's a bit different than what Jim said, but very alarming none the less..

http://www.helium.com/items/1864136-how-the-ultimate-bp-gulf-disaster-could-kill-millions?page=1

Having observed the discussion about Simmons on theoildrum, peakoil and here, I took the time and listened to the interview with Eric King.

I was left feeling that trust in Simmons may be misplaced. His assertion that "Methane is one of the most toxic gases known..." was typical of a sort of carelessness displayed throughout. His other assertion that a subsea nuclear explosion would be safe and effective also rankled. It could be that his current status as a favoured media cassandra for second-tier new media, have left him a little dizzy.
A shame since his earlier comments were so prescient.

Hey ALL
JHK offers a worse case scenario, year after year.Even if hes wrong, the best case sceanrio [ no its not gonna be asokas version] is downright scary!

scenario

I have met Matt Simmons several times over 3 decades.
He is no slouch.
Do not forget he was a key player in the Bush 2 admin and he may know something we do not.
He also could be a bit out of his element.
But I agree we should have nuked the bore hole at 500+ feet below the sea floor and put a stop to this.
We also will have a mess with all of the dispersants used.
As for BP they are nothing more than a criminal gang.

Red

For those around the Gulf coast, I'd say the best chances of evacuation is to cycle out. But you'd have to do a bit of a dry run in advance, and do something like keep several water bottles ready in the freezer.

Keep fit by going cycling every weekend.

When an evacuation actually happens, I'd say take the freeway. You can always contest fines in court (if they actually manage to get the justice system back together, after it all blows over).

If he's right, we're all fooked, but especially the gulf coasters and the BP mutual fund retirees.

He's wrong about the toxicity of methane gas. It's harmless unless it displaces moron than 5% of the oxygen in air.

JK

BP and others drilled in the gulf without understanding the risks, hence the current crisis.

To consider setting off a nuclear device as part of the solution is madness, the unintended consequences are likely horrendous.

Its capped, finish the relief well, plug it and leave it alone.

Nuclear options should be limited to generating zero co2 energy not making the current crisis a bigger clusterfuck than it already is.

If Matt Simmons is correct, and there is no reason to doubt him, can someone, anyone, please tell me what President Obama was doing down here in Michigan last week? Oh, I know the official line from the White House was that he was here to announce the construction of new factory to make batteries for the hybrid cars that will be all the rage when gas hits twenty bucks a gallon. Obama was even gracious enough to take a few photos with Michigan's idiot governor, but the whole thing reeked of Bill Clinton's all-style-but-no-substance leadership style. Is it me or have the Democrats once again reverted to their smoke and mirrors politics of the 80's and 90's.

There are a lot of Simmons detractors, but the further this goes along the more he looks like he is making sense. Let's consider that some of the data he is citing comes from the Thomas Jefferson research ship in the gulf and so far none of those scientists have come forward to reject what he has said.

As for the BP bankrupting comment, it really is just a matter of timing. And we have seen how well companies hand in glove with government theives can scrape along a little further (think of the bailouts) extorting the populace before the inevitable arrives. However, here is a little piece of breaking news:

"BP resolves closure of operations in Pakistan: BADIN: The British Petroleum (BP), an international oil-drilling company working in Badin, has resolved to close down all operations in Pakistan and will soon sale out its shares owing to financial crisis being faced on account of Gulf sea oil spill, Breaking news reported."

I'm sure this is just the beginning of the end.

As to the nuclear explosion idea, I don't care if you are a physicist, a geologist, a geophysicist, or Michio Kaku's mom, unless you know the specific information pertaining to the Gulf sea floor, and the Macondo formation specifically, then anything you say is just speculation. It seems like a risky venture, but as our friends in the white house like to say when considering the prospect of annihilating something, we should leave all options on the table.

I wonder if Simmons was referring to the toxic effects on the Gulf itself and its sea life. of course it would be toxic to humans, but only as an asphyxiant (effects of ingesting large amounts are not known), however I did read this and wonder what sort of transformations it might undergo mixed with other chemicals:

By itself, methane is not toxic. It is extremely flammable and will cause an explosion; it will also kill you by asphyxiation if it leaks into an enclosed space and deprives you of oxygen. But methane only becomes poisonous when it forms part of another gas and is subject to certain circumstances. The bad news is that this happens quite often.

As for how it looks so far...

Gulf oil leak causing upheaval in marine ecology

"Earlier today, Samantha Joye of the University of Georgia in Athens spoke of what they are finding. She said that methane concentrations in a giant underwater plume emanating from the well head are as much as 10,000 times higher than background levels. The consequences of this for life in the gulf are unknown.

Joye was one of the first scientists to discover deep-water plumes emanating from the ongoing spill and recently returned from a two-week research expedition on board the research vessel F. G. Walton Smith. "It's an infusion of oil and gas that has never been seen before, certainly not in human history," she said earlier today, as she described her preliminary findings.

The plume is more than 24 kilometres long, 8 kilometres wide and 90 metres thick, and stretches from 700 to 1300 metres below the surface south-south-west of the collapsed Deepwater Horizon well head."

-http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn19021-gulf-oil-leak-causing-upheaval-in-marine-ecology.html

(AP) The oil emanating from the seafloor contains about 40 percent methane, compared with about 5 percent found in typical oil deposits, said John Kessler, a Texas A&M University oceanographer who is studying the impact of methane from the spill.

That means huge quantities of methane have entered the Gulf, scientists say, potentially suffocating marine life and creating "dead zones" where oxygen is so depleted that nothing lives.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-spill-may-cause-methane-poisoning-wiping-out-life-in-parts-of-gulf-2010-6

Chemist found Explosive Toxic Gulf SeaWater Samples:

http://vodpod.com/watch/4046284-chemist-found-explosive-toxic-gulf-seawater-samples-tests-methane-or-corexit-bp-oil-spill-horror-flv

Anyone who knows Jim or carefully follows his Blog will discern the shift in emphasis and tone of "What if he's right". The pedantic ranting and hyperbole (and I mean this in the best way; its how Jim likes to paint) are diminished and unadorned concern is the subtext. I believe this rattled Jim the same way it rattled me. If he is right, Matthew Simmons just set the first warning pylon ablaze. Whether we heed the warning or not, the real enemy is at our shore. The oceans are what started life and if we kill the seas we likely drown our dignity as human being in the process. It may be 9:07 a.m. but I think I'm going to open a good bottle of cabernet.

Just thought I'd share a comment I made to Morning Joe after watching the Erin Burnett segment

Erin Burnett's sin of Omission

This morning Erin Burnett sang the praises of the profits Whirlpool has made since receiving tax-payer money in the stimulus package. So hooray for the stimulus package and "Uncle Obama" (depicted as Uncle Sam).

What she didn't tell you was the tragic loss of jobs for American workers, the biggest losers in the quest for outsourcing. As some might recall, the parameters of who should get the money was originally supposed to be for American jobs only, but no... the globalists insisted that we are in a global economy and thus, we should not limit who can get the funds. In that scenario, anything goes and in this case it was 1,100 American jobs.--- Oh and the price tag for the shut down of a factory: $51 million.

The story is that Whirlpool took the money and proceeded to close some of its factories in Detroit. Some have been moved to Ohio, but the real kicker here is that the Evansville, Indiana refrigerator plant was closed and moved to Mexico.

Obama, the great capitulator, has assigned dedicated outsourcers on his commission to reduce American's debts and deficits. I don't see how this is going to help our situation in this country while unemployment benefits are running out and the Republicans are blaming the victims.

In this atmosphere it is hard to imagine that there is any hope for a turn-around for job opportunities. I just see these supply-side, Global fanatics turning this country into a complete basket case for the zero-sum game of profits to the top 2%.

see: http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/whirlpool-gets-19-million-taxpayer-stimulus-funds-offshore-outsources-jobs

Jim, if you're going to allow the possibility that Matt Simmons is right, you should also consider the possibility that he has either gone goofy or has a financial stake in his version of events.

I had respected the guy enough to hope it's not the former, but having followed this disaster closely at TOD, I'm having my doubts. I don't think he possesses a technical expertise anything like the people there who are actually working on oil rigs in the field and commenting on what's happened. Some of the claims Mr. Simmons has made are just plain off the radar as far as what's physically possible.

That said, I don't think he's insane per se. I think he has some financial stake in BP's demise, and is willing to risk his reputation creating just enough confusion in the media to erode the public's confidence in anything BP might do or say.

Either way, I now approach his claims with extreme caution.

"There's more to this story than you appreciate. Simmons has a network of trusted friends in the oil patch who know exactly what happened at Macondo."

This is what I believe. I think he is speaking for those who can't/won't.

If Matt Simmons is not speaking the TRUTH, his credibility is shot.

The TRUTH will be revealed eventually.

Having said that, I must also say it has become impossible for me to believe anything anyone says; be it the government, Big Corp, the media, posters on the internet...

It seems to be all lies, deception, and fraud, everywhere, by everyone, all the time.

It's a sad place we've come to.

george,

I'll make a guess...

He was deflecting attention from the oil *!*explosion*!* (thx. to the poster above for ACCURATELY calling it what it is!) disaster that's unfolding way down south??? Oh, and didn't you hear? It's Recovery Summer. Obama & his clown-friend Biden are telling us so...even though the Fed. Reserve said recovery is still 5-6 years away.

"Is it me or have the Democrats once again reverted to their smoke and mirrors politics of the 80's and 90's."

In a word? Yep. It's all they've got.

As a lover of all living non-human things (and I mean that in a spiritual way), the oceans contain far more life within them in terms of both quantity and diversity, than what exists upon land.

All I ever hear about is how this calamity affects US: how it affects JOBS; how it affects the ECONOMY, how it affects THE FISHING INDUSTRY; how it's affecting FINANCE; how it's affecting RETIREMENT FUNDS IN BRITAIN. FUCK OFF!

Given the degree of pestilience we have incurred upon the planet, so what if a few million GD humans die at the hands of BP? The damage that has been wrought at and beneath the waves is apocolyptic already. But only a minority are actually focussed on that.

It is this extreme selfishness that got us here. The relative lack of concern over the destruction of non-human life in that region is chilling. That is the TRUE disaster. I hear no mourning for what has been destroyed. Sure a few pics of some oily pelicans. Next.

This is our abysmal disconnect with nature, incarnate.

As a living organism dependant on a larger living organism, leaving it simply to "others" to deal with is abdicating ones responsibility of stewardship and co-existance. If we do not embody empathy for our fellow living organisms, then the "solutions" will only result in more of the same if the COLLECTIVE attitude doesn't change.

Environfrigginmentalist: You are a true man among men! You are eloquent and right-on, man.

'What if, imagine this, things start getting better'
Fat chance!!! get better in what way? compared to what?
'imagine this' i know yr imagination is scary!
i dont need to imagine. realitys whatever it is!

quoting Krauthammer??He is a hate mongering,racist moron!!

quoting Krauthammer??He is a hate mongering,racist moron!!

Wouldn't you think the other oil companies would be eager to help BP any way they could to reduce the impact of this fiasco in the gulf.That greed ridden bunch are probably sitting there snickering,loping their mule,waiting to increase their take in the oil racket with one less competitor.A real fine bunch of predators,almost as vicious as Goldfink Sachs.

Some factors affecting the political arena in coming years will be the inability of either party to point fingers at each other knowing full well how deeply each will seem hypocritical for taking the same lobbyist money.

But the other "end point" that must surely be coming is the "election year pay outs" and promises special interests.

I'm pretty sure that we are nearing "peak debt" - but if someone had described what would happen as the Obama administration took office I would not have believed it. I actually thought they would prosecute not proliferate the scamming.

I'm sure I have no understanding of how moneyed influence exerts - a perverts - the democratic political process - but I pretty sure this big fat pig has all its tits sucked close to dry.

So how will the world work when the government make good on "bribes" or election year promises?

Is that what we call the "loss of legitimacy?"

"and it turns out that the US government has been played by BP"

The government is BP, and all the other corporations that fund and run the fedgovt. The same players end up as advisers, cabinet members, consultants both within the fedgovt and the corporate elite. Did anyone not notice this for the past 3 or 4 or 5 decades? This is a corrupt system. There is no real democracy, or real elections. That's why everyone claims the U.S. people are asleep: it is because they don't notice the country has been taken over by a corporatocracy. Most people have their daily routines and jobs and taking kids to soccer. They aren't gonna wake up. They're living the good suburban life which is alive and well throughout most of the country despite claims to the contrary. Around here the SUVs are profligate, hands-free cellphones are something almost no one uses, and the trappings of economic success are the only thing to aspire to. There's no crumbling going on here, no waking up to the supposed localization trend in farming, small business, and community.

Well, it is time to hijack the blog. I will put in a little off-topic statement that is undoubtedly true and watch as the comrades and the apologists and nutty pc libtards chew their faces off in apoplectic rage. Note that I wholeheartedly support this statement as it is akin to saying that what a person does in life is largely a matter of his genetic inheritence.

http://www.amren.com/ar/1995/11/index.html

“The civilization that we as whites created in Europe and America could not have developed apart from the genetic endowments of the creating people, nor is there any reason to believe that the civilization can be successfully transmitted to a different people.”

The ax has fallen on the best and bravest syndicated columnist in America. Already under a cloud because of his iconoclastic views, Samuel Francis was finally fired from the Washington Times because of a column written by Dinesh D’Souza in the Sept. 24 issue of the Washington Post. Mr. Francis’ syndicated column continues to run in 80 or 90 newspapers but it remains to be seen whether the Washington Times will continue to publish him.

Among the sentiments the Times appears to have found unacceptable was a quotation in Mr. D’Souza’s article from a speech that Mr. Francis delivered at the American Renaissance conference in May, 1994:

“The civilization that we as whites created in Europe and America could not have developed apart from the genetic endowments of the creating people, nor is there any reason to believe that the civilization can be successfully transmitted to a different people.”

This is not merely a defensible statement; it is overwhelmingly likely to be true. Mr. Francis did not write it in the Washington Times, which was free to edit or reject it if he had.

Mr. Francis is therefore being punished for expressing, on in his own time, views with which his employer may disagree. This is a chilling commentary on how narrow a view the Washington Times takes of the bounds of permissible discourse. To refuse to publish a point of view is one thing. To forbid employees even to express a point of view is something else entirely. It is a sure sign of how desperate the defenders of orthodoxy have become when they are so afraid of certain ideas that they must prohibit their very expression.

Ironically, the Washington Times is a “conservative” newspaper, which prides itself on bold, principled positions. For readers who wish to express themselves to Mr. Francis’ former employer, he is Wesley Pruden, Editor in Chief, Washington Times, 3600 New York Ave. N.E., Washington, DC 20002. AR

I'm not qualified to judge the scientific validity of any gulf-gusher theory or solution being promoted by anyone, especially someone with Simmons' knowledge and experience. I can only try to reason through the arguments like any other informed, skeptical layperson and develop some reasonably likely scenarios in my head. I am most skeptical of "fact" and "estimate" statements from BP, their government lackeys, and the corporate media.

But being skeptical is really about keeping an open mind, not a closed mind. That means you have to grant any of the proposed scenarios, no matter how far out, some nonzero probability score.

For me, the jury is still out on the "nuke-kill." We all know that even a small nuke turns sand into glass. Whatever the composition of the seabed, one would expect other minerals to melt as well, forming lava that hardens when eventually cooled by the seawater. I like to think that would be like sealing wax.

Some of the anti-nuke-kill arguments I've read caution that the seabed is a fragile structure has been severely damaged, and is still being undermined and eroded by the high-pressure effluent. They conclude that a nuke would likely trigger a catastrophic collapse or fragmenting of the seabed, in turn triggering the mother of all gushers. I have no reason to doubt the purported condition of the seabed, but that doesn't mean the conclusion is correct.

Seismic waves have different effects on different types of earth. For example, the geological effects of the many underground nuke tests conducted in the Nevada desert were trivial, from what I gather. It was like setting off firecrackers in a sandbox.

The worst damage to *human* structures by seismic events have been to those sitting on the weakest geological structures. The hardest hit areas of San Francisco, for example, have been those near the bay, where the land has been built up with silt and hauled-in rock. When the wave hits, the earth is momentarily liquified and behaves as a tidal wave, tossing buildings as if they were fishing boats. When the tremors end, the new landscape is basically mud.

So I can see the possibility that a nuke would melt, liquify (turn to mud), and granulate much of the weak seabed surrounding the gusher. And "mud" is a great way to contain a gusher until you can seal it off for good.

hmmm.....okayye then.........nothing that another scotch and soda won't cure....nighty night night.

Jim has never met a doomsday scenario he didn't like.

Occasionally those scenarios DO come true, of course. (Just as JHK has successfully forecast 17 of the last 3 recessions.)

And then there's JHK's perennial prediction that the Dow Jone Industrial Average will end the year at 4000. I stick by my prediction of 8500. In six months we'll see who is closest.

Oh, and while I'm sorry to have to point this out to all of Jim's fanatics, here it is in black and white: the EIA reports that global petroleum production was (modestly) higher in the first quarter of this year than at ANY time history. So Jim's Peak Oil panic jumps the gun, too.

Yes, of course Peak Oil is coming, but it's probably a good 10-15 years away. In the meantime, it's amazing to me that anybody takes any of JHK's predictions seriously. He's hardly ever right. My astrologer is more accurate than Jim.

Simmons is suffering from science illiteracy. And so are the rest of you. Listen, the methane leak danger to human life directly...

... is impossible. Physically, and chemically impossible.

Simmons comes off in Eric King's interview as someone who is very afraid of what he thinks is a threat- he describes it at around 15:00 in the interview- and quite illogically recommends "medical experts" (how are they chemical experts?)that "understand methane gas" - "germ warfare people" - to advise evacuation.

This is ridiculous because methane is inert, for all purposes, readily handled by the body's biochemistry, evaporates in the atmosphere (diffuses), and will never stretch in a 7-mile long cloud at 5% or greater concentration in the air.

Methane is being released- but it is diffuse. The air levels aren't high enough to threaten anyone's health. The levels aren't high enough to combust. It will proceed to the upper atmosphere and contribute to the greenhouse effect- but that is it.

So as to the question of whether or not Simmons is right about methane clouds, government takeover or evacuation plans- he is just wrong about basic chemistry and physics.

It doesn't lend any creedence to taking his other fix- the nuclear option- very seriously either. Maybe its a workable fix- theoretically. But Simmons isn't a physical scientist. So no, I don't take his prognostications seriously.

He is wrong on high school chemistry exam-type questions.

Guy likes to talk alot. Round here we call that being a "Blow-hard".

oops, I meant 40,000 pounds worth of fire truck...20 tons total...40 feet into the air in a millisecond

It's still tremendous force from a little SCUBA tank, perhaps 9 inches in diameter and slightly over 2 feet tall

Now, I'm done for the night!
Watch out for those explosive decompressions.

Girl power!

Hey girls, we should all get together and have a female pow wow. You know maybe do some yoga and then meditate on positive thinking instead of all of this Armageddon talk!

He he...

But seriously...you mention these tiny tar balls not having any effect whatsoever on the environment. In waters that seem perfectly fine there are levels that are rather surprisingly high. Children swim in them and play in sand building castles and are none the wiser.

Have a look at this video:

vodpod.com/watch/4046284-chemist-found-explosive-toxic-gulf-seawater-samples-tests-methane-or-corexit-bp-oil-spill-horror-flv

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hnRc-COAnkwXl4pq3IR3420c9jQQD9H3BR900

Wow, when lack of certainty is involved,
there sure are a lot of "experts". I
suspect that Simmons conjecture about
the nuke has an over-large "standard
deviation" which means that if he's
right he's a genius and if he's wrong
we have a HUGE gaping hole instead of
a small hole.

I'm not real comfy with this conjecture,
which risks WAY too much, that a nuke
will just create this uniform glass
"shell" over the whole region. This
sounds a lot more sensible IF they
cannot quell the smaller gushers
springing up away from the initial
hole.

I'm also a little confused on how an
approaching tropical cyclone creates
all of this aerosolized methane?!
Maybe someone can explain this one to
me because it sounds like another wild
conjecture. I get the methane part but
I don't see how it just wells up from
a mile down and then becomes an aerosol.

I haven't located any data on the NOAA
website that deals with this issue at
all and NOAA scientists are pretty
modest about wild conjectures. In other
words, they don't make them.

E.

At least one of the racists on this board delivers his message with some élan and flair. As for the other one, well, pop goes the megalomaniacal weasel--I’ve seen more controversy stirred on the mirror surface of Lake Vapid.

I really think people on your side of the pond should start reading something useful e.g. The Ogoni Bill of Rights.
Because I really feel that you boys and gals are about to get seriously screwed by British Petroleum.

"...that BP has been consistently lying about their operations to stop the flow of oil."

What's this? BP bullshitting? What a shock!

The whole story, the unvarnished truth are as welcome in sleek company offices as a sweat stained farmer smelling of manure. If it were otherwise we wouldn't have had Sarbanes Oxley legislation, not that it did any good.

Clip coupons and live off of interest and dividends, like Republicans do. If your in a jam just sell some stock.

I think we are giving religion far too much credit here, in fact it is revisionist to say that Judaeo-Christianity led Europeans to the study of nature and matter. If you are speaking of academic inquiry, then perhaps you recall that Greece was busy paving the way well before Jesus started his PR campaign towards convincing people he was the one messiah, and scholars credit many thousands of years of thinking before to the theories it derived. But this is not surprising since many people consider the beginning of time to begin somewhere around Adam and Eve.

At any rate, who are these simpletons seeking to reduce this discussion to gender quips and other superficial knavery?

An amusing little racial anecdote

OK, TBU, you may be about to eclipse another poster with whom I have exchanged ideas for pure raw intelligence. You said you were going to hijack the thread. I said to myself....naaah...that won't work.

But, by golly, here we go over the racial cliff for yet another week!

Let me clarify a couple of points, make one last effort to stop the *lemmings* (ha, now that's supposed to be a joke...not an insult) and if I can't halt the plunge I'll be back next Monday...or maybe tonight...who knows, who cares?

TBU, I read your "agent provocateur (btw, you misspelled that word) post a time or two and the most salient idea seems to be that there are racial differences controlled by genetics and that some of the differences involve intelligence.

For our purposes, I can *stipulate* complete agreement with that argument. (Important note to fervent anti-racists: This does not mean that I necessarily agree with TBU on this. It is a standard debating tactic...allowing opponents to concentrate on other (more important??) issues that flow from the original argument.

It avoids arguments that "strain at gnats and swallow camels."

I also know and can convincingly argue the main counterpoints:
1. There is wide variation within a race
2. Race is just a "construct"
3. The "one drop" rule
4. Most any other "standard" anti-racial argument

Anyway, let me concede your point totally right now. THERE ARE RACIAL DIFFERENCES CONTROLLED BY GENETICS AND SOME OF THEM INVOLVE INTELLIGENCE.

My first question is to you personally, as a fellow white guy. You acknowledge that there are races more intelligent than ours. How does it help you, me, and the US of A if we somehow manage to convince the Chinese (say) that they, as a race, are smarter, more adaptable, and/or more "civilized" than we.

I just don't get how that helps your "cause," if you're a white supremacist.

The second question is, "What can you do with it."
You *may* have a scientifically valid theory up there in all caps. But how can it REALLY, TRULY help us in US? I'll admit it could help the Chinese, the Koreans, the Japanese, or any other "homogeneously racial" country...but not us.

I asked Vlad last week where he stood as regards, "walking the talk" about racial purity. If y'all are in Idaho in a compound dedicated to survival...well, cool, I guess I can understand, even admire that.

But from where I stand in North Georgia too much racial talk gets real old real fast.

When you (I think it was you) start talking about making a black colony out of Mississippi...well...

I start thinking about friends I have over there who are just as nice and Southern as I, but who could turn just as mean and Scotch Irish as me and my sons when it came to our families or our land.

It makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up a little bit to think an idea like that all the way through....and to think otherwise intelligent men are advocating for that very idea.

I forgot to add

The amusing little racial anecdote

I took a day off from work some years back to go with my (then) 8 year old son to "Olympic Days" at his elementary school.

He and I had walked to the broad jump pit. He squatted down, strained mightily, and jumped maybe 2.5 feet. He's a "white man" in training. He can't jump. Sometimes a stereotype is completely accurate!

The (white female) adult volunteer running the event asked him if he wanted to jump again.

"Sure!" So he takes another shot and jumps maybe 2.4 feet.

By this time a light complexioned little black girl has walked up. (BTW and I'm not making this up...this little girl seemed quite articulate and intelligent)

The little girl took her starting position...and with no hesitation or apparent effort jumped like a grasshopper clean out of the far end of the little broad jump pit they had set up.

The volunteer's mouth and mine gaped simultaneously open for a second.

"You want to jump again, little girl?"

"No thank you, once was enough. Thank you though.'

Moral of the story.
Some differences are so obvious they don't have to be discussed except as compliments.

Some differences are so obscure or divisive that they are best left unsaid.

Matthew Simmons, founder and chairman emeritus of Simmons & Company International, is a prominent of peak oil. Simmons was motivated by the 1973 energy crisis, , to create an investment banking firm catering to oil companies. In his previous capacity, he served as energy adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush. . He is a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations..

Bush Cabal

The latest from Matt Simmons:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwX9RXFRJD4

Incidentally, I had a dream that he was killed by a criminal syndicate after the oil spill occurred and before he started speaking about what was going on. He was ran over (by a barge, a piece of symbolism I would imagine) and it was set up to look like an accident. In addition to that, gangs of white collar thugs were chasing down civilians and beating them with Mayan war clubs in a fashion similar the game played in Apocalypto. In the end, the civilians as well as the crime lords were stranded on the shore with no escape.

All consevatives have to thank Mr Breibart for his exquistie timing in release of the tape. He has taken the self righteous accusations of racism by the NAACP and the Left and thrown it back in their hideous faces.

Now there are calls to reinstate the commisioner. Would a White caught making a statement like that about Blacks ever be reinstated? We all know the answer: they would be ruined forever. Blacks and Liberals have shown no mercy and no mercy should now be shown to them.

Now we are having a real dialogue on race, but not quite what Mr Obama was thinking of. His version is just Whites bowing their heads and accepting to pick up ever more of the burden of the Black Race - ultimately to be turned into de facto slaves.

I know Liberals think all racial problems would cease if Whites would just accept slavery and ultimate annihalation via miscegenation. But you see, we're not going to. You people are going to have to fight for every inch from here on in. And know this Liberals - you haven't seen anything yet. We haven't even scarcely begun to fight.

Both oil and methane are less dense than salt water. As soon as they are released from the floor of the Gulf, they will float to the surface. They don't form pools on the sea floor. Methane can combine with water to form an ice looking solid, only if the temperature is low enough, and the pressure high enough. These deposits will remain there UNLESS the ocean warms enough to release them, in which case they could contribute to VERY rapid global warming. Sell your beachfront estate NOW. Wiki 'methane calthrate' to read about doomsday.
Huge amounts of methane gas float to the surface of the Pacific Ocean, off of the California coast, continuously. It was shown on TV. Simmons may be making a lot of money selling BP stock short.
Maybe the stress of knowing what will begin to happen (peak oil induced near total economic collapse) during the second half of this decade, has driven him off the edge. I must admit that knowing that we are all riding with Thelma & Louise, is a bit stressful.

I just this morning checked the ABCNews website. Nary a word about the GOM oil disaster. So, folks, it's over. Nothing to watch here. Move on.

OK Racial Theorists:

I admit defeat, at least temporarily. If you guys want to talk about your racial theories; have at it!

I just don't see how taking racial talk down to small theoretical limits benefits me, my family, my State, my Country, or my Planet.

I'd rather talk about survival; both short and long term.

TBU posited *last?* week that there will not be a short exciting collapse. I understand the arguments....that's all I'll admit right now.

I've probably upset both Doomers and Sliders on these threads. (Those in those groups who actually read my posts anymore...jury's still out on that one?)

But I've prepared for both eventualities.

And now I'm working with all my might to STOP or at least "slow down," either eventuality.

For some REAL, PRACTICAL REASONS.

Anybody in the world, anywhere, want to talk about this?

Yours 'till later boys and girls,
C

Asoka, I should have added that ignoring rants does not allow the perpetrators "free reign". I took not some months ago on this blog that for a while, at least, nobody responded to the most notable of the contributors whose positions revolve around race. What was remarkable is that over time, the blog ceased displaying its usual bifurcation: those who center on race, and those who center on the TLE and its attributes. All of the discussion centered on the TLE and allied issues. What a relief. So, Asoka, show your mettle by not allowing yourself to become incensed. The off-topic material will start to abate and fizzle.

When I think of the TLE from my air conditioned office connected to a sophisticated web of electronics, satellites, machines, switching mechanisms, and delicate infrastructure, I truly wonder if this luxury of communication will remain? Or for how long?

I also think of the medications I take. Very few, thankfully, but necessary none-the-less. It is a very sophisticated system and infrastructure that keeps my internal biology in line. What happens when all the systems associated with getting that medication to me start to break down? What happens to society when anti-depressants, anti-psychotics, cholestoral regulating drugs and other medications that keep us "together" aren't readily available -- perhaps only to the rich?

Everything in our modern world is precariously balanced on an entire system of interconnectivity -- which requires a multitude of energy inputs in order to deliver.

The magnesium and silcone and other precious metals incorporated into this computer I am using come from around the world. Likewise is the case with ingrediants for medications and the machinery required to manufacture them.

When parts of those systems start to falter, become drastically more expensive, or potentially collapse, what is going to start to happen?

I think the potential for things unravelling precipitously faster than any of us could imagine is quite high. Imagine hundreds of thousands of psychiatric patients no longer on meds. Or heart patients without blood pressure control. Or diabetics without all the needles. What if the manufacture of computers and devices to facilitate electronic communication becomes limited to the point that few of us will be able to partake?

One could argue, that we'd just go back to the days before electronic communication, but unfortunately so much else of the new paradigm will be different that the old paradigm cannot be re-instated.

We all sit here in our collective bubbles, believing that we'll simply get along with less of the status quo. But, as JHK predicts and I concur, the reality will be much more messy than what our current cultivated, cushy positions of observance can imagine.

The big question is, when?

It’s fascinating, the racist strategy of generalizing for the ultimate purpose of separating. Group em together so you can move them apart. A far cry and one step lacking from the Beaux-Arts tradition of the French academy where process moved from the general (initial conception) to the specific (accentuating variety within the greater whole) and then back to the general for the purpose of unifying and harmonizing the greater whole. The spirit of the of the former strategy embodied back by the likes of Goebbels, Himmler and Adolph; the latter by the likes of Ingres and Bouguereau. One for death, destruction, and ugliness; the other for beauty, harmony, and the promotion of racial/gender/economic justice.

I seriously doubt the militant racial dogma of VK and TBU are revealed face to face and hand to hand in public or even revealed on the world wide web with a real name and face to empathetically stamp a courageous strength of conviction. On the other hand, who would show up for the ugly message in real life outside of a few malcontents. Not that they should be denied there right to express: discord reserves a very small place for itself in the grand harmonic scheme of things. So let the small people gather and express themselves and let the militant racists puff their pugnacious chests out under the anonymous umbrella of the internet.

VK and TBU are smart guys, blessed with a lot of intelligence. But smart guys are a dime a dozen and their inflexibility is more akin to the death march of the stiff twig easily snapped in a country of changing demographics. So they will always move in small, fearful, and lifeless circles when not attempting to co-opt the dialogue of inclusive internet forums like a couple of miller-moths flapping around the light.

What really terrifies and traumatizes the quivering spirits of VK and TBU is that human beings ultimately gravitate towards variety and life…to the sights and sounds of the holy spirit being channeled through a Master of the Universe, in whatever form that happens to take. To the genius who flies far above the structured confines of an IQ test:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-0gm9fxOOk

JHK wrote:

From the beginning of the BP Macondo blowout incident in April, he's taken the far out position that the well-bore is fatally compromised and that BP has been consistently lying about their operations to stop the flow of oil.

As many have brought up here, Simmons is a businessman, not a scientist. Which is why I trust his assertion about BP consistently lying to we Peasants far more than I buy his opinion on the integrity of the wellbore.

In the end, it is almost a given that the gusher has spewed far more oil than the highest Corporate Government estimate (about 175 milllion gallons, I believe), which I would take as probably the lowest limit on how much oil has gushed.

It is almost a given that far more injury and ruin has been inflicted on Gulf residents by the oil and the toxic dispersant than Corporate Media is telling us.

It IS a given that, the longer we move away from the actual event, the long-term effects on Gulf Residents will be disappeared by the Corporate Media to the extent that it is possible in an information-saturated society.

What many call JHK's "doomerism" is coming out in his running with the idea that there will be a Big Explosion that catastrophically underlines the reality of the TLE. The reality is that this is unlikely to happen for reasons of physics and chemistry, many of which have already been brought up here.

The reality is that things will probably go on as they have been going on for 30 years, since the human species went into overshoot. Relatively slowly, unevenly, and with the Aristocratic Elite displaying a seemingly enormous power to keep the Fantasy going and delay the oncoming of the TLE to it's very physical limits, buying more time as they position themselves to not be a part of the coming dieoff keyhole, or at least to be comfortable and serviced by we Peasants while it's happening.

I guess that makes me a Slider, in the parlance of progressorconserve.

We could all use a "sliding machine" (as in the old scifi show "Sliders") to abandon this eaten apple core of a world before TLE and diedoff hits in earnest, maybe as much as a century away, if the Aristocratic Elite are lucky.

Of course, we would immediately begin destroying the world into which we slid, as the same old human history repeats again and again and again the same way it has been now for 8000 years and more.

On July 19, 2010 at 4:46 PM Qshtik said:

Simmons makes $340,000. Big deal. He probably carries that much around in his right front pants pocket for tipping parking attendants.

On July 22, 2010 at 11:19 AM Qshtik said:

Assuming the short position numbers provided by somebody a couple of days ago are correct (namely, 8000 shrs at an avg price of $42.50) with BP currently trading at $36.60, Simmons is up $47,200. That should pay maybe a calendar quarter or two of property tax on his house ... if that is what you mean by a lot.

$340,000 or $47,200, either way it's illegal gain if Simmons was trying to make BP go bust in order to profit on his shorts.

And it is a bit worrisome that Qshtik, who claims to have decades of experience as a auditor of defense contracts, cannot decide if it is $47,200 or $340,000, but in both cases he shrugs his shoulders at unethical behavior that results in illegal gain.

What happens when all the systems associated with getting that medication to me start to break down? {snip} Everything in our modern world is precariously balanced on an entire system of interconnectivity -- which requires a multitude of energy inputs in order to deliver.

Good questions, E. There are no answers that are universal, i.e., no way we can save everyone. What you are indicating is the urgent need for each individual to try to simplify and position oneself to sustain life when TSHTF.

To the end individuals will naturally make different choices. Unfortunately, the health-related situations are the most difficult, if not impossible, to reverse. We will all die; those with health issues dependent on medication disrupted by TLE will die sooner.

For the non-health issues all we can do is try to minimize our personal dependency on petroleum.

In my case I have already learned Spanish and I am learning to build using adobe construction to build in a climate (in South America) which requires no heating and no cooling year round. (places near the equator at certain altitudes qualify) Again, I repeat, I know this is not a solution for everyone: it is my personal solution.

Where I am moving you can live on fresh food from a farmers' market for less than US$100 a month, to supplement what I don't grow myself.

I have also accustomed my body to fasting so "three squares" a day is not necessary. I do fine now with one meal a day, like General McChrystal, and my lifestyle follows http:www.fast-5.com
I think eating lean, losing weight, engaging in exercise, etc. will also minimize medical issues.

A long time ago I got a vasectomy, so I have no expenses related to children. My biggest challenge right now is to downsize from the North American lifestyle and simplify my life even more. I have posted many links on voluntary simplicity, minimalist lifestyle, etc.

Finally, I am looking forward to the day the world wide web system breaks down, and Internet is a thing of the past. When we go back having more time for spiritual life and more time for sharing culture together that we ourselves create: storytelling, group meditation, games we make from natural materials, not plastic, and not dependent on batteries.

To me the word 'racist' is totally meaningless.It is just another word added to our vocabulary by some social engineer with an agenda,so that you all forget about the daily real problems and get into each others hair,fighting among each other,who is and is not a so-called racist.To all you non-racists Hornblowers,may I suggest, move into the ghetto and show your conviction!

HI.

Well, on another angle, how do folks feel about the federal government usurping the powers of the states. We don't really have a federal system anymore. We have an over-reaching federal government with the states, counties, and cities having very little power. That was not what the founders of the USA had intended this country to be either. The exeuctive and judicial branches have been particularly over-reaching. I would like to see the powers of the federal government reduced and have the states and localities govern more as they see fit. In particular, the one-size fits all education system is unwieldy and oppressive.

CORRECTION: My error is unforgivable.

So it has been. 2000 tonnes to date that I can find. Nice. World ammonia production currently is 110,000,000 tonnes. But scale shouldn't be a problem.

And dumping ammonia into water liberates the Nitrogen, and acidifies the water. Likely no appreciable scale, like oil int the gulf.

Have fun with this comrades. Here is another thought to think about from that enlightenment-rich site American Rennaissance.
http://www.amren.com/ar/1996/02/index.html

Now, really do you libtards think that house music, hip hop and rap are at a level with the work of Mozart, Bach and Bethovan? What great architectural monuments have been built by native sub-Saharan Africans. Why, oh why, did the Australian aborigines have such a markedly inferior culture. Might it have something to do with the fact that thier iqs average around 62 or 63. Note that the bushemen and pygmies have even lower iqs, averaging in the mid 50's. They certainly haven't contributed much to civilization either. I will acknowledge that their way of life was sustainable like other browsing and forgaging animals.

The quote follows. Pay particular attention to the fact that the inferior morons are out-breeding and invading the territories of the northern races. Do you want the US to look like Sau Paulo or Europe like Timbuktu. How about Mogadishu or Lagos?

Ultimately, of course, it makes no difference whether the races of man diverged 30,000 or 300,000 years ago. The fact remains that the differences are real, and clearly reflect differing capacities to build and maintain civilization. Today, the work of millennia is being undone as the less intelligent races not only outbreed the more intelligent but push their way into the homelands of the northern races."

Here is more. The cultural and intellectual decline in America is due to the genetic decline of the morons out-breeding the more intelligent:

http://www.amren.com/ar/1996/02/index.html

ime

American Renaissance magazine
Vol 7, No. 2 February 1996

CONTENTS

The Origin of Races, Part I
Book Review: The Decline of the Best
AR in the Public Eye
Temple of Doom
Lady Role Models
O Tempora, O Mores!
Letters from Readers
COVER STORY
The Origin of Races, Part I

Biology will prevail against all attempts to abolish it.

by Michael W. Masters

“If everyone is my brother, I have no brothers.”
— Pierre-Joseph Proudhon

It has become fashionable in certain circles to write as if race were not a legitimate biological category but merely a social invention. Like many liberal assertions, the fact that this is a flat contradiction of common sense is apparently no impediment. “The concept of race is in disrepute now,” says Jim Davis, professor emeritus at Illinois University. [Kenneth Cole, There’s really no such thing as race, more scientists say, Detroit News, June 28, 1995.] “Anthropologists are not saying that humans are the same, but race does not help in understanding how they are different,” adds Leonard Lieberman of Central Michigan University.

The purpose of these denials, of course, is to destroy the legitimacy of policies or practices that recognize the reality of race. As Soloman Katz of the University of Pennsylvania puts it, “No one denies the social reality of race; the question is what happens to the social reality when the biological ideas that underpin it vanish.” [Robert Hotz, Is the Concept of Race a Relic? LA Times, April 15, 1995, p. A1.]

Is race really just an illusion? Except for a small but energetic group of academics and journalists, just about everyone agrees that there are three major racial groups: Mongoloids, Negroids and Caucasoids. Some would add others: aborigines of Australia and New Guinea; Bushmen of East Africa; American Indians; etc. There are also many hybrids. Dark-skinned Caucasoids of India, for example, were formed from a 1500 B.C. influx of Caucasians who then mixed with earlier natives despite a caste system intended to prevent miscegenation. Genetic studies also show surprising divergence between Northeast Asians and Southeast Asians, likewise suggesting possible hybridization of one or the other group.

Man, the Upright Ape

The origins of race cannot be understood without some knowledge of the evolutionary origins of man himself, a subject that has been studied for many decades.
It has become fashionable to write as if race were not a legitimate biological category.

The first great scientific problem was to determine which came first, large brains or upright posture. Charles Darwin argued that bipedalism and large brains evolved together, along with the invention of stone weapons that could not be used unless arms and hands were free from locomotion. Use of weapons led to increased social interaction, which in turn led to increased brain size.

Darwin has been proven wrong. In the late 1960s, blood protein research showed that humans diverged from apes about seven million years ago. Early hominids are known from fossil finds to have been bipedal from four to as much as seven million years ago. Since use of tools — a sign of growing intelligence — began only about 2.5 million years ago, bipedalism must have come before large brains.

But what caused proto-hominids to walk upright? Many scientists think it may have been a geologically unique event — the formation of the mountainous Great Rift Valley region about 10 million years ago. This created a dry, isolated ecological system in East Africa by interrupting the flow of moist air from the west. This gave rise to a grassy savannah, which was dramatically different from the tropical rain forests in which tree-dwelling apes evolved. For the apes trapped in this newly formed environment, bipedal movement conferred survival advantages in finding food and avoiding enemies.

The first bipedal hominid was Australopithecus (“southern ape”), which lived in Africa from about seven million to one million years ago. The oldest species believed to be ancestral to humans is Australopithecus afarensis, a small biped that retained many of the anatomical features of tree-dwelling apes. East African fossils have been found that are three to four million years old. Lucy, the most famous example, was found by Donald Johanson in Ethiopia in 1974. Australopithecus africanus appeared later, 2.3 to three million years ago, possessing an elongated skull and a steeper forehead — features more like today’s humans. Australopithecus africanus’ cranial capacity was about 400 cubic centimeters, less than one-third that of modern humans.

The Cerebral Rubicon

The earliest fossil to bear the name Homo was found by Jonathan Leaky at Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania in 1970. He found a cranium fragment that was much thinner than any from the known australopithecine species. It had smaller cheek teeth and, more important, greatly increased cranial capacity. Though Leaky’s find had a capacity of about 650 cubic centimeters, subsequent fossils placed the average at about 800 cc, well above the “cerebral Rubicon” of 750 cc first proposed for genus Homo by British anthropologist Sir Arthur Keith. The first member of the human family was named Homo habilis, or “handy man,” because it emerged coincident with the earliest known use of stone tools, about 2.5 million years ago.

About 1.7 million years ago Homo habilis was replaced by Homo erectus. In The Origin of Humankind, Richard Leaky wrote: “Homo erectus was the first human species to use fire; the first to include hunting as a significant part of its subsistence; the first to be able to run as modern humans do; the first to make stone tools according to some definite mental template; and the first to extend its range beyond Africa.”

Dr. Leaky appears to have been wrong about the final point. Fossils were recently found in central China that are at least 1.9 million years old and which have been identified as Homo habilis, the direct ancestor of Homo erectus. The crude stone tools found with the fossils are very similar to those of Homo habilis excavated at Olduvai Gorge.
Homo erectus.

Africa remains the origin of the very oldest proto-human fossils, but the Chinese find raises two intriguing possibilities. One is that Homo erectus actually evolved in Asia and then migrated back to Africa. The other is that Asian strains of man (and perhaps others) have been evolving outside of Africa for nearly two million years. [John Wilford, Bones in China put new light on old humans, NYT, 11/16/95, p. A8.]

Homo erectus may have had spoken language and may also have mated for life. Australopithecines were markedly dimorphic — males and females differed in size — suggesting that dominant males monopolized available females. Homo erectus males and females were nearly the same size, which some scholars regard as evidence of pair bonding.

Homo erectus had a cranial capacity of between 900 and 1100 cc and developed a rich variety of stone artifacts. These are known today as the Acheulean culture, named after the French village, St. Acheul, where important finds from this culture were made. Although no physical remains of Homo erectus have been found in Europe or West Asia, Acheulean artifacts suggest the presence of Homo erectus in those areas. These artifacts have not been found in East Asia although Homo erectus fossils have been found, indicating that East Asian Homo erectus may have been less advanced than its African and European cousins. This finding is consistent with the possibility that Homo erectus may have evolved in Asia and migrated back to Europe and Africa.

About 300,000 years ago, the first hominids appeared with a large enough cranial capacity — 1200 to 1500 cc — to merit the name Homo sapiens (modern European males average over 1400 cc). Covering most of the Old World, these archaic humans were more robust than today’s variety, with larger teeth, thicker skulls, etc. Neanderthal Man, a European variant named for Germany’s Neander Valley — site of an 1856 skull find — appeared about 150,000 years ago.

He had a low, sloping forehead, a receding chin, and heavy brow ridges. He probably traveled in bands of no more than 30, and his maximum population is not likely to have exceeded a few tens of thousands. He appears to have buried his dead and may have practiced cannibalism.

Neanderthal man is probably not an ancestor of modern man; both are thought to have descended from Homo erectus, with the divergence taking place as many as 200,000 years ago. Neanderthal man disappeared from Europe around 30,000 years ago. He may have been driven off or exterminated by more advanced humans, or he may have passed on his genes by breeding with them.

Some anthropologists believe that remnants of these early Neanderthal-like races still survive in isolated areas of the world. Carleton Coon once said of New Guinean aborigines that they were so thick of brow it looked like they were still sloughing off erectus traits.

Origins of Race
Neanderthal man.

There are two theories of how Homo sapiens evolved from Homo erectus and/or archaic humans: the “multiregional” theory and the “replacement” theory. The multiregional theory holds that today’s races derive from local Homo erectus populations, and the recent Chinese find suggests even more ancient origins. Migration and interbreeding — a process known as “gene flow” — would have prevented these local populations from diverging into entirely separate species. Defenders of the “multiregional” theory, such as Carleton Coon and Milford Wolpoff, cite fossil evidence. For example, there are similarities, such as round skulls and shovel-shaped incisors, between modern Chinese and an East Asian variant of Homo erectus.

The replacement theory holds that the ancestors of modern humans arose in Africa between 140,000 and 200,000 years ago and spread over the earth, replacing all previous hominids without interbreeding with them. Those that entered Eurasia subsequently evolved into the diverse non-African races of mankind as a result of further evolution in their new environments. Supporting evidence includes DNA studies suggesting common ancestry of people of different races that is far more recent than would be the case if evolution from Homo erectus had been “multiregional”.

Anatomically modern humans appear in the fossil record virtually simultaneously in East Africa and the Middle East, about 100,000 years ago. Named Homo sapiens sapiens to distinguish them from archaic versions, the debate over their place of origin is unresolved. In The History and Geography of Human Genes, a massive 1,000-page compendium of research on genetic differences, authors Luca Cavalli-Sforza, Paolo Menozzi and Alberto Piazza lean towards the replacement theory, but do not think the question is settled. This is their scenario for how the first modern humans may have developed from archaic forms:

“Ancestors of modern Caucasoids and modern East Asians (let us call them Eurasians) developed either in northeastern Africa, or in West Asia or southeastern Europe from an originally African source during the period between 100 and 50 kya [thousand years ago]…

“Whether or not it partially hybridized with local descendants of archaic H. sapiens or H. erectus, the Eurasian moiety was ready for an expansion, perhaps about 50-40 kya, and expanded in all directions: north and then east, occupying northeastern Asia, the Arctic, and America; west toward West Asia and Europe; and southeast, where it may have mixed with the descendants of the southern branch of the African migration.”

The African Eve

In the late 1980s, a furor arose over a dramatic new theory that modern humans derived from a single African female — quickly dubbed “Eve” by the media. Michael Brown traced the course of this flap in his 1990 book The Search for Eve. The idea appeared in a 1987 article in Nature by Allan Wilson, Mark Stoneking and Rebecca Cann called “Mitochondrial DNA and human evolution.” Its opening was provocative: “Mitochondrial DNAs from 147 people, drawn from five geographic populations, have been analyzed by restriction mapping. All these mitochondrial DNAs stem from one woman who is postulated to have lived about 200,000 years ago…”

The research, conducted primarily at the University of California, Berkeley, was based on the fact that once two groups diverge, random mutations begin to accumulate at a (usually) constant rate. The longer the groups are separate, the greater the number of mutations and the more different from each other they become. If the mutation rate is known, the mutations form a molecular clock from which the date of divergence can be computed.

For example, if Asians and Europeans share a genetic characteristic not present in Africans, it means that the mutation that formed the genetic feature occurred after the common ancestor of Asians-and-Europeans split off from the African stream but before Asians and Europeans diverged from each other. However, even within a single breeding group, mutations do not occur uniformly and at the same time in all members of the group, so sophisticated statistical analysis is required to determine when divergence took place. Mitochondrial DNA — which controls certain aspects of energy production at the cellular level — seems an ideal vehicle for such studies because it is simpler than nuclear DNA and, more important, is inherited only from the mother.

According to the Berkeley study, the African samples of mitochondrial DNA (actually African-American samples) appeared to be the oldest. If so, modern humans must have originated in Africa and dispersed from there, replacing all archaic humans without a single instance of interbreeding. The impact of this article — Nature is one of the most prestigious science publications in the world — was immediate. Eve, the “mother of us all,” was African and therefore black. This ignited sanctimonious celebration by liberals. If other races had only recently split off from Africans, how could racial discrimination be justified? Blacks were quick to accept their new role as progenitors of mankind.

However, all was not well in Eden. Questions about Eve surfaced as scientists examined the evidence carefully. Doubt was raised about the validity of using American blacks — who average roughly 25 percent white genes due to miscegenation — to represent Africans. The persistence in modern Chinese of distinctly East Asian Homo erectus characteristics — round skulls and shovel-shaped incisors — demanded explanation. Milford Wolpoff asked how Homo sapiens sapiens eliminated earlier forms without a single instance of interbreeding. He coined the term “Pleistocene Holocaust” for the implied planet-wide massacre of archaic humans by the African invaders.

Scientists questioned the mutation rate used by Professors Wilson, Stoneking and Cann to calibrate their molecular clock. Given a more realistic clock rate, the common ancestor — if there was one — lived half a million years or more ago, an era populated solely by Homo erectus. The putative common ancestor might simply represent movement of Homo erectus or one of his precursors out of Africa. In 1992, flaws were found in the statistical techniques used by the Berkeley group.

The decline of Eve’s fortune did not rule out the replacement theory, and expert opinion is still sharply divided. It is difficult to know what to believe when specialists disagree. However, Carleton Coon’s comment about New Guinean aborigines still sloughing off Homo erectus traits is compelling, and Australian aborigines have heavy brow ridges and massive skulls that suggest a markedly different ancestry from that of other races.

Ultimately, of course, it makes no difference whether the races of man diverged 30,000 or 300,000 years ago. The fact remains that the differences are real, and clearly reflect differing capacities to build and maintain civilization. Today, the work of millennia is being undone as the less intelligent races not only outbreed the more intelligent but push their way into the homelands of the northern races.

In his masterwork, Race, John Baker traces the history of men who spoke about race. Perhaps the most important was Arthur Comte de Gobineau, whose book, Essay on the Inequality of Human Races, explained why civilizations decay and die: “mixture, mixture everywhere, always mixture …” Hybridization of intelligent, creative, racially pure founding stock, he said, was destroying the West, just as it destroyed all previous civilizations — a theme developed by Tenney Frank in History of Rome and Elmer Pendell in Why Civilizations Self-Destruct.

In a more recent book, The Decline of Intelligence in America, Seymour Itzkoff writes of the “encompassing embrace” of third-world immigration to Europe and the United States: “It is an embrace that will suck us back into evolutionary history if we delay too long.” What Lothrop Stoddard called “the rising tide of color” may well be reversing the course of human evolution. AR

Michael W. Masters is the author of “The Morality of Survival,” which appeared in the issues of July and August, 1995. This article will conclude in the next issue.
• • • BACK TO TOP • • •
BOOK REVIEW
The Decline of the Best

An analysis of our era’s most dangerous illusion: that genes have no effect on human behavior.

The Decline of Intelligence in America, by Seymour Itzkoff, Praeger, 1994, 242 pp., $18.95 (soft cover)

reviewed by Thomas Jackson

Seymour Itzkoff can always be counted on to grapple with difficult but vital questions. He is the author of a four-part series on the evolution of human intelligence and never loses sight of the role that heredity plays in human behavior. In his latest book, The Decline of Intelligence in America, Prof. Itzkoff writes about one of the most destructive but little-discussed trends in America today: the decline of the nation’s genetic stock.

The book’s thesis is simple and essentially irrefutable: the unintelligent are rapidly outbreeding the intelligent. At the same time, third world immigration is bringing in large numbers of non-whites, who have lower average IQs than whites. The consequence is a steady decline in the average American IQ, which threatens the survival of our nation and even the civilization of which it is part.

The NLSY

The problem of birth rates is illustrated in the National Longitudinal Study of Youth (NLSY), the comprehensive set of data on which Charles Murray and Richard Herrnstein based The Bell Curve. As Prof. Itzkoff notes, the NLSY has tracked the progress of a representative sample of Americans who graduated from high school in 1972. When they are divided into five different levels of intelligence, the birth rate differentials sound a grim warning. Four years after graduation, 30 percent of the lowest ability whites and 49 percent of the lowest ability blacks had already had children. Of those of highest intelligence, only six percent of the blacks and ten percent of the whites had had children. Intelligent Americans are not simply delaying having an equal number of children; almost without exception, people who start having children at an early age produce by far the largest number over their lifetimes.

Professor Itzkoff emphasizes that the differential for blacks is especially sharp. Even more than among whites, births are concentrated among the unintelligent and incompetent. Since the entire black distribution of intelligence is already shifted some 15 points lower than that for whites, the preponderance of births to the least capable black mothers is producing a large number of children who, by white standards, are retarded. The average IQ gap between black and white will therefore widen.

Much of this new generation will never be capable of anything more demanding than manual labor. As Professor Itzkoff points out, our society has virtually no need for such people. Furthermore, many are unwilling or unable to work at even the modest occupations of which they are capable. Crime, indolence, and yet more reckless proliferation are the inevitable results.

TBU, VK and those drawn into the whole race issue: numerous people have politely and not-so-politely requested that you can it.. at least here.

Why do you continue to carry on about race when few here care? Why are you so disrespectful of the majority of people who come here who've requested y ou put it aside? What do you possibly hope to achieve with all this cerebral stultiloquence? You might make a point that someone might be challenged by, but you won't be changing any minds.

If what you want is intellectual stimulation and debate, exchange e-mail addresses, set yourselves up on Yahoo Messenger or Skype, and have your debates: offline. Demonstrate a little of the superiority that you lay claim to and exercise some of that high IQ you possess to realize when you're not wanted.

I'm going on vacation now. Have fun.

Simmons seems increasingly likely to be wrong. The latest data (or perhaps Simmons sees them as lies) show skimming operations are down to collecting 50-odd barrels a day, from 25,000. Consequently, the "sealing" of the new cap has markedly reduced the oil from the well flowing into the gulf (perhaps stopped it altogether). If there was a gusher 5 to 10 miles away, those skimmers would still be collecting 25,000 barrels a day.

I just hope that Simmons starts to modify his language and begin to accept that he is not privy to information that others aren't or that his knowledge of wells is not surpassed by anyone else.

Maybe there is some scenario in which he's more right than wrong but that doesn't seem likely at the moment, and he risks being seen as a complete loony.

Incidentally, it is by our hearts that we choose our assumptions, so.... things are not looking good for you, are they? It why voluntarism is clearly the basis of Judaeo-Christian, scriptural teaching.

We will not be judged on our worldy intelligence, but on the basis of what we CHOOSE to believe. It just happens that God made the world in such a way that it accords the wishful-thinking of believers who find his teachings beautiful.

The most sublime? By common concurrence, the Beatitudes. Not a Republican-type agenda at all. Blessed are the poor????!!!!

"Asoka, I think many of your posts are flat out false and misleading and when I spot such a post I will make it my business to point out the truth."

What you think, Qshtik, is of no importance at all.
That you think you can distinguish truth from falsehood on the anonymous internet is proof you are no more than an OCD-ridden, pushin-70, fool.

The great classical composer Anton Dvorak stated:

"I am convinced that the future music of this country must be founded on what are called Negro melodies. These can be the foundation of a serious and original school of composition, to be developed in the United States. These beautiful and varied themes are the product of the soil. They are the folk songs of America and your composers must turn to them."

As well as the following:

"I found that the music of the Negroes and of the Indians was practically identical", and that "the music of the two races bore a remarkable similarity to the music of Scotland".

And finally:

"In the negro melodies of America I discover all that is needed for a great and noble school of music."

Linked below is a beautiful,haunting performance of the 2nd movement of Dvorak’s New World Symphony performed by the Dublin Philharmonic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ENf4VEhI40

It's a real shame that someone got a hold of your brain and reverse engineered it, that is to say turned it inside out and made it difficult to see reality for what it really is. That is the only explanation, for no one on this planet, under sort of normal circumstances, would believe the shit you are piling on nice and tall.

Kevin Trudeau Is Cool July 22, 2010

The most obvious explanation for the diaspora of currently non-African races from Africa to other parts of the globe in prehistoric times, seems to me, to be that they were driven out by the stronger peoples, the ancestors of today's Africans.

Today, in Africa, itself, the smaller people, the Bushmen live in the poorest, harshest environment, yet, like the Australian Aborigines, they are blessed with an extraordinary, innate mystical intelligence, precisely as a result of their perforce, ascetical life-style.

What is more, anthropologists are in no doubt whatsoever that, like all the peoples we, somewhat oddly, call "indigenous peoples", they have adapted to their most difficult environment with positive genius.

The further North the expelled peoples spread, the harsher the weather conditions and the greater the demands placed upon the capacity of all humans for wordly intelligence, in order to survive.

This, however, presents problems in that our civilisation began in Mesopotamia, and the climate of China is not, generally, I believe, harsh, yet did they not, for instance invent printing and gun-powder, many centuries before us?

Essentially, 'civilised' means living in settled dwellings. I'm half Welsh, but apparently, in the Middle Ages, the Welsh used to move their dwelling each year - nomads, yet they have provided Britain with what I believe to be the two greatest politicians in its history, Lloyd George and Aneuren Bevan (who instituted the National Health Service in the teeth of fierce opposition by among others, the doctors).

One other thing. I feel fairly sure that treebeardsuncle conflates racial and cultural homogeneity. I believe that multiculturalism is a great error and leads to division and, yes, a racism based on culture, which seems to be insuperable this side of the Parousia.

The only way round it is for nations to preserve their unique CULTURAL identity via an overarching official, national religion. Of course, this does not mean that individuals could or should be coerced into believing it, but the fact is that it creates and imbues everyone with a subtle, imperceptible ethos, whereby certain kinds of behaviour are unthinkable to everyone.

We have a problem in the UK, at the moment, which you Americans will find hard to believe. The authorities are contemplating issuing emergency-services personnel with vest armour, as protection against the attacks of disaffected and sometimes drugged-up louts. Also, you will see notices in hospitals to the effect that the medical staff have a right to go about their business without being physically assaulted by patients or their families. (Is that politicl correctness gone mad, or what? [joke])

Those kinds of behaviour would have been unthinkable when Christianity was the one, official religion of the country, and was the theme of the daily morning assemblies. I mean, it's true madness.

This person has WAY too much time on their hands, obviously, just by looking at the kind of tripe they are generating on this page throughout the day. Go do something useful with yourself; your masturbated verbiage does not impress anyone.

Ok, Treebeard

You finally did it.

I've been following this blog for months now and posting for about a month.

Until tonight, I had read every post from every individual.

But you, Mr. TBU, this afternoon posted a entry so long, so obviously copied and pasted from somewhere that I began to skim it. Then I began to scan it. Then I bailed out completely and hit the scroll button until finally your post *mercifully* reached its end. Whew...sweet freedom!

And even if your ideas were completely true, I can not see how they help ANYBODY improve ANYTHING.

IQ is relative to situation. If I need a new weapons system, California engineers would be what I need.

If I wanted to screw up a company and an ocean ecosystem, I would find BP company men and send them out to throw their big IQ's around at a delicate juncture of a long dangerous operation.

If I wanted to survive in the African bush for a night I would find a wise looking Bushman, try to get on his "wavelength" and head out with him while hoping to survive and learn something.

One last thing....racial arguments are visibly fun to you. They are not fun where I live.
My South dealt with race from the founding of the country. She lost 500,000 of her sons in a War.

When you talk about making a Southern state into a "black colony," it may be a fun mental exercise to you....it's too abstract for you to comprehend reality.

In Georgia that kind of racial shit is a dangerous as walking into a survivalists gun room with a flaming torch.

Think about that next time before you theorize.

And kindly spew your venom without mentioning the South.

No need to respond. You have some good ideas and speak with eloquence. Sadly, though, your intractable inability to consider practical solutions for the planet puts you on a short list of posters I must choose to ignore.

Now consider the differences in reproductive strategies needed to survive and prosper in warm as opposed to cold climates. I fervently aggree with these conclusions: Here is the link:
http://www.amren.com/ar/1996/03/index.html

Edward Miller has proposed a concept called paternal investment theory. He suggests that “in cold climates males were selected for provisioning, rather than for mating success. In warm climates, where female gathering made male provisioning unessential, selection was for mating success. Male-hunted meat was essential [in cold climates] for female winter survival. Genes that encouraged mating success were selected for in warm climates. Negroes (blacks) evolved in warm climates, while Caucasians (whites) and Mongoloids (Asians) evolved in colder climates. Mating is assisted by a strong sex drive, aggression, dominance, sociability, extroversion, impulsiveness, sensation seeking, and high testosterone. Provisioning is assisted by anxiety, altruism, empathy, behavioral restraint, gratification delay, and a long life span.”

Alright, here is one of those progenitor liberals whose influence has been corrupting the fabric of our society for the past 2 to 3 generations. Notice that Myrdal, a Swede by the way, espouses that despicable social engineering that we see all too much of in the petty bureacratic authoritarian school systems as well as the media.

Here is the link:
http://www.amren.com/ar/1996/04/index.html

Sowing the Seeds of Destruction: Gunnar Myrdal’s Assault on America

Some of today’s most destructive ideas were first popularized by a socialist from Sweden.

by Jared Taylor

Social Engineering

Today, one of the most striking aspects of An American Dilemma is its touching faith in social science. Myrdal writes with much satisfaction about his “scientific” methods and solutions. Rather more ominous is his infatuation with “social engineering.” The following passage is one of the clearest statements imaginable of the goals and tactics of liberalism:

“Many things that for a long period have been predominantly a matter of individual adjustment will become more and more determined by political decision and public regulation… [T]he social engineering of the coming epoch will be nothing but the drawing of practical conclusions from the teaching of social science that ‘human nature’ is changeable and that human deficiencies and unhappiness are, in large degree, preventable.”

San Jose Mom,

I thought it was obvious enough, but my post was mostly in agreement with ozone's - the one before mine - regarding the post directly before his, the one spilling over with tripe and riddled with crazy half-truths. Any time spent actually engaging in debate with the person is likely time wasted, so I did not manage to critique any points directly.

- K.T.I.C.

Greetings Mr. Cool,

It would be helpful to know whom you are disagreeing with. Mr. Kunstler? Some of the usual suspects?

Kind regards,
San Jose Mom

About Racism...

A scientist worked for years trying to determine if the color of skin could mean a difference among animals.
He trained two cockroaches to respond to verbal commands, one black and one white (albino).
Eventually he succeeded in getting both to leap over his finger whenever he told them to jump.
Once They had learned this, he pulled off the black’s front legs.
When he then commanded the black cockroach to jump again, it took a deep breath and just managed to clear the man's finger.
He then pulled off the middle legs and on the command to jump it just managed to stagger over.
Finally he pulled off the back legs.
But when told to jump, the cockroach just lay there, legless.
He did the same with the white one.
He pulled off the white’s front legs.
When he then commanded it to jump again, it took a deep breath and just managed to clear the man's finger.
He then pulled off the middle legs and on the command to jump it just managed to stagger over.
Finally he pulled off the back legs.
But when told to jump, the cockroach just lay there, legless.
Conclusion: There is no difference at all between the two races: when all a cockroach’s legs are removed, deafness occurs.

I am sure what's-his-face will draw a connection between deafness and race, no doubt, and then putting forward a likely question: but if a white cockroach can buy a set of wings, why can't the brown cockroach also save up a little each day and buy a set of wings, that way he can still without legs please the white man and jump over his little index finger on call.

Some master race. A low testosterone, anxiety ridden, puritanical, rhythm lacking group of chilly sexual constituents. And the “other ones” are the problem? Handing the self -proclaimed racists a couple of mirrors.